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Ascolta, Vienna (2026)

30/12/2023

The destruction of old traditions and the foundations of the old world always occurs with the release of a large amount of energy, which is transformed into wars, coups, conflicts, crises, and other cataclysms. Recently, FBI Director Christopher Wray said: “These are unique times. “I have never in my career seen a situation where all or very many threats increased simultaneously.” Several generations of politicians in the West have become accustomed to life

in relatively comfortable, conflict-free conditions, in a demoliberal world with an even career and a calm old age, with the understanding that the biggest disaster in their lives could be another economic crisis, and the nuclear threat is something from the category of “fairy tales for the uninitiated.” The world of procedures and institutions, speculation and hypocrisy, obviously impossible agreements, futures, indices, Bilderberg clubs, Davos, vanity fairs, and idle talk about “the open society and its enemies” collapsed. Just as the world of Art Nouveau pretentiousness collapsed in 1914, forcing one to change tailcoats to a gray military uniform, and as the world collapsed in 1939, dividing the world into “before” and “after,” rewiring the brains and killing humanity the cult of a strong personality and the cult of will.

In 2023, several significant trends emerged that will dominate over the coming years and develop in subsequent years.

In this report, Ascolta analysts identify the main trends for 2023, which may directly impact further developments in the world.

Read final analytical report:
https://www.ascolta.org/?p=5407

25/09/2023

Russia: Weekly Report (18.09-24.09)

Based on the results of the past week, the following trends can be summarised:

- Next year, the Russian authorities plan to increase federal spending on the country’s defence. Costs for these purposes will increase from 3.9% in 2023 to 6% in 2024. In this context, the internal struggle between the main influence groups around Putin, responsible for the military-industrial complex and defence, is becoming increasingly noticeable. Soon, we can expect that conflicts between Shoigu and Zolotov will not only become public but also that contradictions between other actors in this area will intensify.

- Wang Yi’s visit to Russia confirmed Putin’s plans to visit Beijing in October. Issues related to further steps towards integrating Belarus and Russia and the prospects for the negotiation process on the war in Ukraine may be resolved there. On the eve of his visit to Moscow, Wang Yi met with Advisor to President Biden Sullivan in Malta, where issues of resolving the situation surrounding the war between Russia and Ukraine were also discussed. It is quite possible that after Putin visits Beijing (which will be a mirror image of Vladimir Zelensky’s visit to Washington), the general contours of an agreement on a peace plan that would satisfy all parties and beneficiaries of the conflict can be developed.

- Despite the demonstration of Sergei Lavrov’s very vigorous activity on the sidelines of the UN, the head of the Foreign Ministry practically did not voice any new theses. However, Russia hinted at the possibility of conducting negotiations regarding Ukraine and even returning to the topic of the territorial integrity of Ukraine - in the event of progress on the issue of the neutral status of Ukraine and guarantees of its non-entry into NATO structures. Of course, such hints should not be taken as a new condition for negotiations. Instead, it is a demonstration of capabilities rather than a statement of readiness.

This digest highlights the following topics that were most relevant for Russia during 18th – 24th of September:

1. Meeting of the Russian Military-Industrial Commission;
2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Wang Yi;
3. Telephone conversations between Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev;
4. Meeting of Vladimir Putin with permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation;
5. Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Iran;
6. Participation of Sergei Lavrov in the UN General Assembly;
7. Attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

19/09/2023

Profound political transformations await Armenia shortly. It is possible that Pashinyan’s position on the events in Nagorno-Karabakh could lead to an attempt to carry out a coup in the country.

07/09/2023

An important point: It is the class component, the presence of confrontations and contradictions among elite groups, and not ethnic or territorial principles, that can lead to conflict between regions in the future. That is, Russia is threatened not so much by a conditional “rebellion of Siberia” or “Tatar separatism” as by mini-wars between the “Kirienko” and “Turchakov”, “Patrushev” and “Sechin’s”, etc. Medieval principles based on the class principle can be revived in modern Russia more efficiently than ethnic principles.

Considering the factor that has a serious impact on both the internal political situation in Russia and the strengthening of contradictions between different groups of influence, Ascolta models a possible map of the division of Russia in the event of a war breaking out between the main clans surrounded by Vladimir Putin.

30/06/2023

After an unsuccessful riot attempt in Russia, Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region, became one of the most discussed politicians. Given the great hype, Ascolta prepared a detailed political portrait of Putin's former bodyguard:

ascolta.org/?p=3853

26/06/2023

“PRYGOZHYN’S RIOT”: HYPOTHESES

The events of June 23-24 in Russia became an essential shock for the Russian Federation itself and the world, which was closely watching the actions of the Prigozhin militants. Russia, which a year ago claimed the role of one of the leading world hegemons, suddenly showed that in terms of the level of stability of the system, it came close to Sudan. Although many visible factors do not take into account many deep elements. Expert evaluations are mostly relatively superficial and do not stand up to criticism. Forecasts are all the more weak and do not consider political and psychological factors.

Several hypotheses can be formulated regarding the reasons for Prigozhin’s rebellion. It would be easiest to blame everything on the mental imbalance of the owner of “Wagner”. But let’s take into account several circumstances.

https://www.ascolta.org/?p=3844

24/06/2023

“PRIGOGIN’S REBELLION” AND POSSIBLE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE RUSSIAN ELITES

The armed rebellion that began on June 23, 2023, with the participation of Wagner PMC, raises many questions. It is known that, in terms of business, Yevgeny Prigozhin entirely depends on government contracts (because of food supplies to Russian schools). Foreign contracts are also fully approved and coordinated at the state level. Politically, Prigozhin is embedded in the system and is a link in the vertical system of the Kovalchuk family clan, with close ties to the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin. Prigozhin has known Putin since his days in St. Petersburg. He never entered the inner circle of Putin’s confidants. Still, he was considered a faithful executor of the will of the “Master,” agreeing to carry out rather dubious assignments. The informal status of “Putin’s chef” demonstrated a privileged position in the Russian establishment.

At the same time, the very fact of the beginning of the rebellion, and there is no other way to call the situation with the presence of armed people on the streets of Russia, already demonstrates the presence of a serious crisis within the system. The question remains only how this crisis is controlled and what consequences it can lead to.

In this article, Ascolta analyses the key events and determines the possible consequences of the so-called justice march performed by PMC Wagner.

Read more: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=3796

24/06/2023

Earlier, Ascolta published a detailed political portrait of Yevgeny Prigozhin
ascolta.org/?p=3468

12/06/2023

On September 9, 2022, the Council of the European Union, as part of another package of sanctions, ultimately suspended the visa facilitation agreement between the European Union and Russia. Thus, trips to the EU have become more complex and costly for Russian tourists.

Already on September 19, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia proposed to introduce a complete ban on the issuance of visas. According to them, in the current circumstances, Russian tourists should not be allowed to visit Europe without any restrictions. This proposal did not receive unanimous support from other EU members. Still, the Baltic countries, which initiated such a ban, became the first European Union states to introduce enhanced control over the entry of Russian citizens into the EU. Sometime later, Finland closed the land border for tourists from Russia. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the country said that from September 30, 2022, restrictions will be introduced on the entry of Russians on the eastern border.

Further, other countries of the European Union followed. And although a complete ban on entry for Russian tourists throughout the EU has not been introduced, many countries have suspended the issuance of all types of Schengen visas, instead of which they issue only visas for humanitarian purposes or long-term visas for students, employees of European companies, as well as under the family reunification program.

At the same time, according to official data, from the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to the imposition of severe restrictions by the European Union (from February 24 to September 30, 2022), 1.36 million Russian citizens legally entered the territory of the European Union.

More information: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=3635

03/06/2023

LUKASHENKO’S HEALTH AND POSSIBLE CORRECTIONS IN BELARUSIAN POLICY

At the beginning of May 2023, talks about the state of health of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko intensified significantly. After April 28, Lukashenko temporarily disappeared from the media space. On May 5, he appeared at the following event but looked rather sickly, read a short speech and spent about 10 minutes in front of the cameras. Then they started talking about Lukashenko’s illness and his possible resignation from the presidency. On May 9, he flew to Moscow for the parade on the occasion of Victory Day, but he could not read the congratulatory speech (Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin spoke instead). Also, Lukashenko did not stay for the gala dinner and flew to Minsk. He looked sickly; his right hand was bandaged.

In its recent analytical review of the socio-political situation in Belarus, Ascolta considered the main versions related to Lukashenko’s illness. However, at the end of May, several of our sources announced changes in the state of health of the Belarusian president, which caused particular concerns in the political environment.

In this article, Ascolta offers its own analysis of the internal political situation in Belarus, which can also have a significant impact on the geopolitical situation.

Read more in our material: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=3575

13/02/2023

Russia: Weekly Report (06.02-12.02.2023)

Based on the results of the past week, the following key events can be brought to attention:

🖍 The Kremlin is preparing for the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. Recently, information about the possible actions of the Russian authorities on these days has been actively disseminated: from a full-scale offensive to the dismissal of the entire leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry. At the same time, it is worth mentioning a severe change in the Kremlin’s tactics: if earlier any active actions were tied to conditional “sacred dates”, then over the past year, there has been a complete withdrawal from such a practice (at the same time, several Ukrainian and Western experts continue to build their forecasts, linking to such dates). According to Ascolta, a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (and former Foreign Minister), Wang Yi is due to visit Moscow shortly in preparation for Xi Jinping’s visit. Most likely, Wang Yi will visit Moscow between February 16 and 22, which may indicate that Moscow will not take any active actions against Ukraine at this time.

🖍 Putin is increasingly focusing on domestic politics and the economy. To this end, he conducts internal visits and holds meetings with representatives of industries especially affected by the Western sanctions policy.

🖍 Moscow is becoming more active on the Ukrainian issue. According to reports, Putin ordered to take control of important cities in the Donetsk Oblast (Bakhmut, Vuhledar and others) by any means, as well as to advance as much as possible in the Luhansk Oblast to reach the borders of the so-called “LPR”.

During February 6th -12th the following topics were the most relevant for Russia:

1. Meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation

2. Viktor Medvechuk’s article in RIA Novosti

3. Vladimir Putin’s visit to the Arkhangelsk Oblast and economic initiatives

4. Statement by Alexander Novak on the reduction of oil production in Russia

5. Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Mali, Mauritania and Sudan

Read more in our material: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=2518

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Росія за тиждень (06.02-12.02.2023)

За підсумками минулого тижня можна тезово визначити наступні тенденції:

🖍 Кремль готується до річниці вторгнення в Україну. Останнім часом активно поширюється інформація про можливі дії російської влади у ці дні: починаючи від повномасштабного наступу та закінчуючи звільненням усього керівництва МО РФ. У той же час, варто відзначити серйозну зміну в тактиці Кремля: якщо раніше будь-які активні дії були прив’язані до умовних «сакральних дат», то за останній рік відзначається повний відхід від подібної практики (у той же час, низка українських та західних експертів продовжують будувати свої прогнози, відштовхуючись саме від таких дат). За інформацією Ascolta, найближчим часом має відбутися візит до Москви члена політбюро ЦК Компартії Китаю (і колишнього глави МЗС) Ван І у рамках підготовки візиту Сі Цзіньпіна. Скоріш за все, Ван І відвідає Москву в період з 16 по 22 лютого, що може свідчити про те, що наразі Москва не робитиме жодних активних дій щодо України.

🖍 Путін все більше уваги приділяє внутрішній політиці та економіці. З цією метою він здійснює низку внутрішніх візитів та проводить наради з представниками галузей, які найбільше постраждали від санкційної політики Заходу.

🖍 Москва активізується щодо українського питання. За наявними даними, Путін дав вказівку будь-якими силами взяти під контроль важливі міста в Донецькій області (Бахмут, Вугледар та інші), а також максимально просунутися на Луганщину для виходу на кордони так званої «ЛНР».

У період з 6 по 12 лютого для Росії найбільш актуальними були такі теми:

1. Засідання Ради безпеки РФ

2. Стаття Віктора Медведчука на РІА «Новини»

3. Візит Володимира Путіна в Архангельську область та економічні ініціативи

4. Заява Олександра Новака про скорочення видобутку нафти у Росії

5. Візит Сергія Лаврова до Малі, Мавританія та Судан

Детальніше читайте у нашому матеріалі: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=2540&lang=uk

06/02/2023

🇲🇩 Between the west and Russia: who is rocking the situation in Moldova?

In fact, for many years, Moldova has been a thing of interest to four parties: 🇷🇴 Romania, which takes an active part in the internal politics of Moldova (Maia Sandu, Natalia Gavrilitsa, and several other high-ranking officials and politicians in Moldova have Romanian citizenship); 🇹🇷 Turkey, which actively supports the Gagauz Christian Turks living in the southern regions of Moldova (in 2020, Turkey financed the restoration of the presidential palace in Chisinau, which was damaged due to protests); 🇺🇸 the United States, which is trying in every possible way to neutralise Russia’s influence in this region and secure maximum control over the Balkan region; as well as 🇷🇺 Russia, which does not want to lose influence either on Moldova itself or on a number of processes in the region, actively using energy blackmail and the Transnistrian factor.

Ascolta analyzes the situation in Moldova and identifies the main threats to its destabilization.

Read more in our material: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=2422

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🇲🇩 Між заходом та Росією: хто розгойдує ситуацію в Молдові?

По суті, протягом багатьох років Молдова є об'єктом інтересів чотирьох сторін: 🇷🇴 Румунії, яка бере активну участь у внутрішній політиці Молдови (Майа Санду, Наталія Гаврилиця та низка інших високопосадовців і політиків у Молдові мають румунське громадянство); 🇹🇷 Туреччини, яка активно підтримує гагаузів – турків-християн, які проживають у південних регіонах Молдови (у 2020 році Туреччина фінансувала відновлення президентського палацу в Кишиневі, який постраждав унаслідок протестів); 🇺🇸 США, які всіляко намагаються нівелювати вплив Росії в даному регіоні та забезпечити собі максимальний контроль над регіоном Балкани; а також 🇷🇺 Росії, яка не хоче втрачати впливу ні на саму Молдову, ні на низку процесів у регіоні, активно застосовуючи енергетичний шантаж та фактор Придністров'я.

Ascolta аналізує ситуацію в Молдові та визначає основні загрози для її дестабілізації.

Детальніше читайте у нашому матеріалі: https://www.ascolta.org/?p=2468&lang=uk

Ascolta

30/12/2023

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