McNicol AIFS Weather South Australia

28/08/2025

We got absolutely slammed this morning. Hope the rest of you didn’t get hit too badly?

What’s the conditions in your area?

23/08/2025

Hi All,

Been a busy few weeks with our latest update to the platform. Thanks for being patient!

Over the next 14 days there is going to be a significant weather system moving through the state. This signifies a changing of weather patterns, as it has been stable the last month.

This is the current analysis’s for the Adelaide Hills region. But you can check your own location by checking out https://www.weatherau.io/?page=town_forecasts

Please see below 14 day analysis. With the latest data as from 6pm ACST

Expecting rainfall/showers to start on Monday 25th, right through to 05/09.

Peak of the rain will be on Tuesday at and 13.4mmThursday 28th at 21.1mm for the Adelaide region.

I will be providing more updates as they come. But fingers crossed these rainfalls occur, as they are sorely needed!

The attached pictures are for the Adelaide hills region.

20/07/2025

❄️ SOUTH AUSTRALIA WINTER WEATHER 14 DAY SUMMARY ❄️
ADELAIDE METRO 🏙️

Rainfall: 80-88mm
🏆 Wettest: Bellevue Heights (88.3mm)
Max winds: 52.7 km/h
Pressure: 998-1001 hPa
Solid winter rains delivered across all suburbs

ADELAIDE HILLS ⛰️

Rainfall: 75-84mm
🏆 Wettest: Uraidla/Summertown (84.1mm)
Max winds: 43.2 km/h
Good soaking rains for gardens and reservoirs

FLEURIEU PENINSULA 🌊

Rainfall: 62-71mm
🏆 Wettest: McLaren Vale (79.8mm)
Max winds: 47-55 km/h
Moderate falls with strong coastal winds

BAROSSA VALLEY 🍇

Rainfall: 57-65mm
🏆 Wettest: Angaston (65.8mm)
Max winds: 40 km/h
Below average winter rains - concerning for vineyards

YORKE PENINSULA 🌾

Rainfall: 45-58mm
🏆 Wettest: Ardrossan (58.2mm)
Max winds: 48-55 km/h
Marginal winter rainfall for crops

SOUTH EAST 🌲

Rainfall: 63-75mm
🏆 Wettest: Robe (79.9mm)
Max winds: 54-58 km/h
Good winter conditions

RIVERLAND 🍊

Rainfall: 30-36mm
🏆 Wettest: Loxton (35.8mm)
Max winds: 36-38 km/h
Typical dry winter - irrigation essential

EYRE PENINSULA 🦈

Rainfall: 32-62mm
🏆 Wettest: Coffin Bay (61.1mm)
Max winds: 58-62 km/h (strongest in state!)
Coastal areas windier, variable rainfall

MID NORTH 🌾

Rainfall: 38-59mm
🏆 Wettest: Port Pirie (59.0mm)
Max winds: 35-42 km/h
Below average winter rains

MURRAYLANDS 🚤

Rainfall: 44-56mm
🏆 Wettest: Milang (56.1mm)
Max winds: 37-51 km/h
Murray Bridge, Mannum, Tailem Bend
Below average winter rains affecting river communities

FAR NORTH 🏜️

Rainfall: 19-21mm
🏆 Wettest: Coober Pedy (21.3mm)
Max winds: 46-48 km/h
Minimal winter rain as expected

Send a message to learn more

20/07/2025

🌦️ ADELAIDE 14-DAY WEATHER OUTLOOK
THE BIG PICTURE: A major weather system is set to impact Adelaide this week, bringing our wettest conditions in quite some time!
⚠️ KEY WEATHER EVENT - July 25-26:

Heavy rainfall: 22-25mm each day (that's substantial winter rain!)
Strong winds: Gusting up to 40 km/h
Low pressure: Dropping to 994 hPa (classic storm signature)
Cold conditions: Daytime highs struggling to reach just 11°C

WEEK 1 BREAKDOWN:
🌧️ Monday-Tuesday: Rain begins with 7-9mm, temperatures dropping to 8-10°C overnight
🌨️ Wednesday-Thursday: The main event! Expect significant rainfall and gusty conditions - perfect weather for staying indoors with a hot cup of tea
💨 Friday onwards: System moves through, but showers linger with 6-14mm over the weekend
WEEK 2 OUTLOOK:
☀️ Good news! Conditions improve significantly from July 30th
🌤️ High pressure builds (1030+ hPa), bringing much drier weather
🌡️ Temperatures gradually recover to more pleasant 13-14°C maximums
METEOROLOGIST'S VERDICT: This is a classic winter weather pattern for Adelaide - a vigorous cold front delivering solid rainfall totals (~100mm by month's end!). Great for our water storages, challenging for outdoor plans mid-week.
Stay weather-aware and plan accordingly! 📱

https://www.weatherau.io/

09/07/2025

Hi All,

Hope you are all staying safe out there.

Next 14 day outlook for Adelaide. We are looking at roughly 90mm of rain!

Also make sure to see our massive dashboard update at

https://weather.mcnicoltech.com.au

🌧️ Adelaide Weather Update — 14-Day Outlook

(Issued July 9, 2025 — Updated Forecast)

⸻

📌 Summary

Adelaide faces a very wet start to this forecast period, with a significant rain and wind event hitting today, July 9. This system delivers more than a quarter of the entire 14-day rainfall in a single day. After that, the pattern shows additional showers and cooler air, but no other events appear as intense. Pressure dips today then recovers, and temperatures remain mild during the day with cool overnight lows.

⸻

🔍 Forecast at a Glance

💧 Total Rainfall (14 Days): ~83.8 mm
• July 9 is the wettest day: 21.7 mm
💨 Strongest Winds: ~40.2 kph
🌡️ Warmest Max Temp: 14.5°C
❄️ Coldest Overnight Low: 7.5°C
📉 Lowest Pressure: 1002.2 hPa

⸻

🗓️ Day-by-Day Highlights

July 9: 🚨 Major Rain Event
• 21.7 mm rain
• Gusts up to 40.2 kph
• Pressure dips to 1002.2 hPa
• Mild high of 14.5°C, low of ~7.5°C
• Possible waterlogging or transport disruption

July 10–13: Showers Continue
• Light to moderate daily rainfall
• Highs between 12–14°C
• Winds moderate; pressure rebuilding

July 14–22: Easing
• Rainfall becomes patchier
• Winds ease
• Pressure holds steady
• Clearer, cooler nights expected

⸻

🧠 AI Summary Insight

“A wet and gusty system impacts Adelaide today, July 9, delivering nearly 22 mm of rain and winds over 40 kph. The remainder of the fortnight is marked by lighter rainfall, mild temperatures, and gradually recovering pressure”

02/07/2025

Hi all, apologies if I have been a bit quiet on here.

Nearly finished on the next release of my dashboard. This is a massive update, and you all are going to love it!

28/06/2025

Next 14 Day Forecast - South Australia.

# 🌧️ SOUTH AUSTRALIA WEATHER UPDATE 🌧️

**Big changes coming for SA over the next 2 weeks!**

Just analyzed the latest ECMWF forecast data and here's what's heading our way:

🎯 **THE HEADLINES:**
• **Wet weather building** from this weekend onwards
• **Peak rainfall** 70+ mm possible in some areas by mid-July
• **Southern & SE regions** looking wettest
• **Nearly statewide coverage** by week 2

📅 **TIMELINE:**
• **This weekend:** Light showers begin (2-6mm)
• **Next week:** Moderate activity picks up (10-25mm)
• **Week 2:** Potentially heavy falls (30-70mm+)

🗺️ **WHERE:**
Highest totals likely around:
• Adelaide Hills & Fleurieu Peninsula
• SE regions near Victorian border
• Parts of Eyre Peninsula

⚠️ **CONFIDENCE:**
✅ **High** for this weekend (plan accordingly!)
🟡 **Moderate** for next week (stay tuned)
🟠 **Lower** for week 2 (big picture trends)

**Perfect timing for:** 💧 Water tanks, 🌱 gardens, 🚜 winter crops
**Watch out for:** 🚗 Road conditions, ⚡ storm activity in later period

*Data source: ECMWF AIFS model (2,401 forecast points analyzed)*

26/06/2025

I know my main focus is on SA here, but looking at the next 2 weeks ahead in current models, we are looking at some serious damaging rainfall off the NSW coast, which will cause severe flooding.

We hope this does not eventuate. But I will be keeping an eye on this one.

23/06/2025

Hi All,

While this wild weather is moving in. Not much has been changing on the AIFS model. Still around the 30mm mark for Adelaide.

Stay safe out there while these wild winds pass through.

I have also added some more features to my website. Be sure to check that out and provide some feedback. I now have a fully integrated precipitation map!

https://weather.mcnicoltech.com.au/

21/06/2025

Saturday Update for this developing system for early next week.

Rainfall Estimates for Tuesday

Adelaide - 29mm
Mount Barker - 26mm
Murray Bridge - 9mm (But looks like you may get something decent on the 1/07 at 13mm)
Mount Gambier - 19mm

Keen to check your town forecast? Checkout our site below.

https://weather.mcnicoltech.com.au/

20/06/2025

Friday night update. Not too much changing with the model updates.

We are still looking at getting some decent falls around the Adelaide Region (Sunday - Wednesday). With 25mm expected on Tuesday.

As I mentioned yesterday. Its a wait and see with this system. But it is looking more likely than not that we will get some decent falls.

I will get some regional estimates in over the weekend.
https://weather.mcnicoltech.com.au/

19/06/2025

Things are starting to firm for some decent rainfall early next week. We are potentially looking at another system that is to be on par with the system we had earlier this month.

Keep an eye on this system off the west coast. We should get a fairly good idea in the next day or 2 from AIFS of what is going to be realistic falls. Fingers crossed it goes to the areas that need it!

Will be providing daily updates on this system until it arrives.