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Outbreak Weather, Perth (2026)

01/05/2026

Rainfall Increasing Across Eastern Australia

Rainfall is anticipated to increase across eastern Australia over the coming days extending into the next week, as a Low pressure system shifts eastward in the wake of a persistent blocking ridge regime.

A deepening low pressure system is developing in the Great Australia Bight, with current forecasts suggesting, deepening to the mid 980hPa range. During late Saturday, the cold frontal boundary is forecast to move eastward, where rainfall and thunderstorms will begin to increase.

There is a marginal risk of Severe Thunderstorms to occur, shifting eastward with time, with the primary hazard being Damaging straight-line wind gusts, as a result of a northerly 50kt low-level jet, where thunderstorms that develop, may have the ability to mix-down these winds aloft.

During, late Sunday the low pressure system will traverse the bass strait, causing rainfall to gradually shift eastward through Victoria and Southern NSW. Current Global model spreads are quite consistent in indicating peak accumulations around 50-70mm through northeastern Victoria.

Further ahead, from mid-week, a secondary cold front is anticipated to move through the region, bringing the potential for additional rainfall. However, forecast guidance diverges more considerably at this lead time, with the GFS remaining the most aggressive solution and the ECMWF comparatively weaker.

Further monitoring will be required over the coming days as forecast confidence improves.

30/04/2026

Rainfall increasing across Southeastern Australia

There is potential for increasing rainfall across the southeast including South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and Southern NSW during this weekend.

A deepening low pressure system is expected to develop in the Great Australian Bight during Saturday as an upper trough enters the region. As this low deepens, current forecast consensus suggests that deepening into a mid 980hPa system is possible, in contrast to yesterdays model runs which were more aggressive on a deeper system.

During Sunday the attendant cold front will move across the southeast, where rainfall is anticipated to develop. The latest ECMWF suggests that peak totals nearing 50mm are possible through Northeastern Victoria, with a greater swathe of coverage extending through the majority of Victoria and the SA border region nearing 15-20mm.

Currently, there is a slight potential for damaging winds to develop, which would appear most probable near the far SE SA border region, most likely around the coast, although current runs are inconclusive and vary quite widely. Further updates will follow as confidence improves.

24/04/2026

Rainfall Increasing Across Australia

Rainfall is expected to increase across multiple regions of Australia over the coming days, including southeastern Queensland, northeastern New South Wales, the Perth metropolitan area, and the Southwest Land Division of Western Australia.

Across southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, rainfall and thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase as an approximately 1030hPa ridge becomes established over the Tasman Sea. This ridge is expected to remain slow moving throughout the forecast period.

As a result, persistent easterly onshore flow will support continued moisture advection, leading to increasing rainfall accumulations along coastal areas of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales. Between Evans Head and areas east of Gympie, peak accumulations may approach or exceed 110 mm over several days.

In Western Australia, a surface trough is forecast to develop offshore northwestern parts of the state before deepening and extending toward the Southwest Land Division by Monday. As this occurs, precipitable water values of around 45mm are expected to enter into the region ahead of an approaching cold front to the south.

Current runs from the GFS/ECMWF/ACCESS are generally consistent in indicating rainfall totals of around 25mm across the Southwest Land Division. However, beyond this, there is considerable spread in both spatial coverage and peak accumulations by mid week. The 00Z ACCESS run is currently the most aggressive solution, largely due to the closer positioning of the surface trough to the WA coast on Monday evening.

Looking further ahead into late next week and the weekend, confidence in rainfall persistence remains low. This is due to significant model discrepancies regarding the timing and positioning of surface cyclogenesis developing in the Southern Ocean, and the attendant cold frontal boundary.

Currently both rainfall events carry relatively significant uncertainty at this stage. Further updates will be provided as forecast confidence improves.

22/04/2026

Rainfall Increasing Across Northeast NSW and Southeast Queensland

An increase in rainfall is possible across northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland heading into the middle of next week, as a series of upper-level troughs traverse the region.

At the surface, a 1030hPa ridge is forecast to become established over the Tasman Sea during the early to mid part of the week. As this feature shifts further east, a diffuse surface trough may develop offshore.

The interaction of these features may allow moisture to be advected toward coastal regions of northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland, supporting increasing rainfall and isolated thunderstorm activity.

There remains a considerable degree of run-to-run variability regarding rainfall coverage and extent at this stage. However, several ensemble runs continue to indicate the potential for rainfall across the region.
Current GEFS and ECMWF ensemble runs suggest accumulations generally in the range of 30-60mm along coastal areas, with isolated higher totals possible closer to the coast.

19/04/2026

Tornado Outbreak — Cyclone Narelle

In the early morning hours of Friday, March 20, 2026, Tropical Cyclone Narelle made landfall in northern Queensland as a powerful Category 4 system near Lockhart River.

Ahead of TC Narelle, a band of semi-discrete supercells developed near Weipa, in the western Cape York Peninsula, moving toward the NNE originating near the front-left quadrant of the tropical cyclone.

These supercells quickly became organised and were relatively fast-moving, with some exhibiting signs of tornadic development. Multiple low-level mesocyclones with varying intensities were identified in radar velocity data. However, due to the absence of dual-polarisation capability at the Weipa radar site, as well as periods of radar attenuation and range folding, the exact behaviour of these supercells remained unclear.

Using recent high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, it appears that the intense low-level wind shear generated by the approaching Tropical Cyclone Narelle likely resulted in a localised tornado outbreak to the east and northeast of Weipa, QLD.

Multiple areas of deforestation and ground scarring are evident across the region, captured in the most recent satellite pass on April 13. Prior to this date, these damage paths were not present. These signatures also align with radar velocity data from the northward-tracking supercells.

Six individual damage paths were identified, most consistent with short-track tornadoes. The longest path is approximately 10 km in length, while the shortest is around 3 km. It is worth noting, however, that the short track shown in image 5/6 may align with a longer track slightly to the northeast, suggesting a period of occlusion may have occurred.

These observations provide evidence of a potential tornado outbreak associated with Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle during landfall. Tropical cyclone tornadoes are not uncommon globally and are generally short lived/weaker in nature, however can sometimes occur in significant numbers, although exceptions of course are noted.

According to official climatology, only three previous tropical cyclones in Australia have official documented tornado occurrences (Ita 1997, Anthony and Carlos, 2011), along with three post-tropical cyclone events (Oswald 2013, Marcia 2015, and Debbie 2017). However, these events may be more frequent than records suggest, given the limited radar capability across northern Australia.

Further information or ground-based photos/videos would be greatly appreciated to help confirm these events. Additional details below ⬇️

16/04/2026

Tornado Scar Discovery – west of Gladstone, QLD

On March 9, 2026, embedded supercells developed west of Gladstone, QLD, including areas near Benaraby and Calliope, in close proximity to Lake Awoonga and the Bruce Highway.

Storms initiated by early afternoon and remained semi-discrete to embedded within a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) across the region.

Radar data, although limited to reflectivity, indicated a supercell tracking from north to southeast, exhibiting a distinct hook echo.

Subsequent analysis using high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite imagery suggests this supercell possibly produced a tornado. Signs of deforestation are evident on the southern side of the Bruce Highway, extending approximately 8.5 km toward the southeast, near the Awoonga Dam site. This damage signature is suggestive of tornadic activity.

The imagery provided shows the damage path on March 29, following the event, with a prior comparison image from late January due to limited Sentinel-2 passes during that period. Given the spatial correlation with the observed hook echo and updraft track on March 9, this feature is likely attributable to the same storm.

On March 8, the day prior, an environment supportive of tornadic development in this region was identified and forecast:
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This environment was characterised by a positively tilted mid-level shortwave trough progressing eastward, accompanied by sufficient deep-layer shear. Low-level shear was further enhanced by a remnant low-pressure circulation associated with Tropical Low 29U.

This surface low generated northwesterly flow in the lower levels, resulting in backed wind profiles and curved hodographs, supportive of 0-500 m storm relative helicity values of around 150m²/s². Consecutive ACCESS-C model runs also indicated enhanced updraft helicity swathes across the region prior to the event. Images below ⬇️

13/04/2026

Super Typhoon Sinlaku

Checkout the view of the monster Tropical Cyclone Sinlaku in the western pacific this evening!

This system is incredibly powerful having attained an intensity of 160 knots (300kmh/) with a minimum central pressure of 890hPa!

To put this in perspective, to achieve this central pressure it would require the removal of 931 trillion litres of air from the central column. This means that around 12% of the entire vertical column of air located over that the area was exhausted outward by the storm! (assuming 32km eye diameter estimated using Guam radar).

This system is expected to pass very close to Guam over the next day or so.

Additionally the development of this system with the equatorial pacific region in combination with tropical cyclone Maila in the southern hemisphere, is generating an intense westerly wind burst, with average wind anomalies near 40-45kts! This will have a significant influence on Australia's climate drivers moving forward with regards to the development of El Niño this year.

12/04/2026

Rainfall Increasing For Northern and Central Queensland

Over the coming days rainfall is forecast to increase across northern and central Queensland as the remnant low pressure circulation associated with tropical cyclone Maila approaches closer to the Queensland Coast, likely traversing westward across Far North Queensland.

By around mid-week, this low pressure circulation will begin advection rich tropical moisture into the region with precipitable water values nearing 65mm.

As a result, widespread rainfall is expected to develop across northern and central Queensland. The most intense accumulations are likely to occur between Mackay and Cooktown, although there is some variability across models runs in regards to specific accumulation amounts, the ECMWF and GFS runs are broadly consistent with peak totals nearing 100-150mm, while the 00Z ACCESS-G was considerably higher exceeding 250mm.

Further monitoring will be required, as forecast confidence improves in relation to surface low track and rainfall accumulation amounts.

11/04/2026

Cyclone Vaianu is approaching the New Zealand North Island this evening having undergone a transition to a sub-tropical cyclone.

Vaianu is expected to move southwards across the North island during Sunday passing west of the Chatham Islands on Monday,

Gales with damaging wind gusts to 130km/h are possible on approach.

The system currently exhibits both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features with estimated intensity of 45kts and central pressure of 989hPa.

09/04/2026

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila Forecast Evolution

Over the past 24 hours, a significant lack of forecast confidence has developed regarding the mid-range development of TC Mailas track and evolution.

Across the ensemble spreads and Operational runs there has been poor agreement across a range of scenarios including timing, intensity and track path.

There is potential that interaction with the PNG island terrain inducing frictional effects, and a track back through the cold pool via previous upwelling, could result in detrimental effects to longevity of the system.

The 00Z ECMWF, GFS, HAFS-A and HWRF models all trended toward indicating substantial dissipation of the system after moving over the PNG islands before reaching Queensland. These scenarios are somewhat aligned with the 00Z GEFS/FNV3 ensemble runs.

The 00Z ACCESS-G and ICON runs, did however indicate the system maintaining Tropical Cyclone Strength during a Queensland landfall.

At this point, the forecast confidence in the medium range track and evolution of this system is very low, with multiple influences having introduced significant forecast uncertainty with NWP.

Continual monitoring will be required until predictability improves

08/04/2026

CHECK OUT THE VIEW OF SEVERE Tropical Cyclone Maila

Tropical Cyclone Maila is a powerful Category 4 system this evening after having attained Cat 5 status earlier today.

This system is very dangerous as it nears the outer PNG islands before its anticipated track toward the southwest. The system is currently producing wind gusts of 230km/h and sustained winds of 165km/h. The current estimated central pressure is 941hPa.

The system currently has developed eyewall lightning with a significant increase in convection including icy cloud tops nearing -100° with the central dense overcast improving dramatically.

The eye has also cleared out and there is potential that this system may be once again nearing Cat 5 intensity. Satellite Derivations have the system closer to 115kts.

07/04/2026

Inside the Eye of Category 4 Cyclone Maila

Severe Tropical Cyclone Maila has intensified this evening, reaching Category 4 intensity.

The system is currently estimated to be near 100 knots, with a central pressure of around 951hPa and sustained winds of approximately 185km/h.

Maila has developed a symmetrical eyewall structure, with deep convection persisting around the central dense overcast. Within the large, well-cleared eye, numerous large, swirling mesovortices are evident, along with lightning within the eyewall.

It appears that cold water upwelling is not having as significant an impact on the system as previously anticipated, and further intensification to Category 5 remains a slight possibility.

Outbreak Weather

01/05/2026

30/04/2026

24/04/2026

22/04/2026

19/04/2026

16/04/2026

13/04/2026

12/04/2026

11/04/2026

09/04/2026

08/04/2026

07/04/2026

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