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Outbreak Weather, Perth (2026)

05/09/2026

Major Volcanic Eruption- Anak Krakatau

Striking satellite imagery taken today depicts Anak Krakatau spewing heavy volcanic ash and gases high into the atmosphere following what appears to be its most significant eruption since the catastrophic 2018 flank collapse, which triggered a destructive tsunami that killed 437 people.

Volcanic ash and gases have been ejected high into the troposphere, with the ash plume reaching approximately 50,000 feet (15km). Lightning has also been detected within the volcanic plume.

A major volcanic ash plume is now moving westward from Anak Krakatau, (and Java, Indonesia) potentially creating significant concerns for aviation, as volcanic ash can pose a serious hazard to aircraft and may require affected flight routes to be altered.

Anak Krakatau is a remnant volcano that arose from the caldera that was caused by the extreme 1883 eruption of the Krakatoa volcano in Sunda strait that produced the loudest sound in recorded history at an estimated 310dB, heard from over 3100km in Perth, Australia.

05/09/2026

Anak Krakatau is erupting in Indonesia, west of Jakarta.

The volcano is currently producing a significant eruption, with volcanic ash detected on satellite imagery extending to around 50K feet and drifting west. Lightning has also been detected within the eruption plume.

Anak Krakatau is a small remnant volcanic island that emerged within the caldera created by the catastrophic 1883 eruption of Krakatau.

That eruption was one of the most powerful volcanic events in recorded history. Its eruption on 27 August 1883 produced an enormous atmospheric pressure wave and a sound reportedly heard thousands of kilometres away, including in Perth, Western Australia, more than 3100 km from the volcano.

The eruption was reported as producing a sound of around 310 dB near the source, although this figure is an estimate rather than a direct measurement. At such extreme pressures, the disturbance behaves more like a powerful shock wave than conventional sound.

The name of the new island in this video: Anak Krakatau translates to “Child of Krakatoa.”

19/08/2026

Rainfall Increasing across Australia

Over the next several days rainfall is anticipated to increase across a prominent swathe of Australia, associated with an influx of moisture originating from the Indian Ocean.

Current satellite imagery depicts a band of cloud near northwestern WA that is beginning to extend toward the southeast.

From tomorrow precipitable water values nearing 30-34mm, associated with this cloud band, will begin to extend across central and eastern parts of the country along the parallel axis of a strong sub-tropical jet.

As this moisture plumes enters central and eastern portions of the country, rainfall will gradually begin to increase along a WNW-ESE line over the coming days. Currently, the most substantial falls appear to occur during early next week, associated with a diffuse surface low that may establish in central portions of the country.

Across Ensemble spreads, there is currently good spatial support for the distribution of the rainfall accumulations. A wide coverage of accumulations nearing 20-25mm is anticipated, Including within the Lake Eyre basin.

The Highest rainfall totals are currently indicated in northeastern Victoria and southeastern NSW, potentially nearing or exceeding 60-70mm across the elevated terrain, noting there is some spatial variability to this feature across guidance.

Further updates to follow

12/08/2026

WATCH: Total Solar Eclipse In Spain!

Darkness fell during daylight hours as the Moon completely blocked out the Sun, bringing totality to parts of Greenland, Iceland and Spain!

For those in Australia, a total solar eclipse will occur on July 22, 2028, crossing northern WA, the NT, southwestern Queensland and NSW, passing directly over Sydney!

It will be one of the most spectacular astronomical events to occur in Australia this century. Don't miss it!

07/08/2026

Severe Weather developing for Southeastern Australia.

A deepening mid-latitude cyclone and attendant cold front are expected to shift eastward during Sunday, bringing severe weather across southeastern Australia.

A prominent upper-level low is forecast to enter southeastern Australia during Sunday, with an associated 110kt jet max extending northward from the QLD border into central NSW.

At the surface, current model runs suggest that cyclogenesis may occur over land, with both the ECMWF and GFS indicating a low deepening into the high 980hPa range near the SA/VIC border during Sunday evening, despite around 200km of variation in the forecast low centre position. The ACCESS run is similar in intensity, however, it lags the development of the surface low by a few hours.

During this time, the cold front is forecast to extend northward to near the QLD border, with a warm front draped across Bass Strait.

As a result, damaging wind gusts initially appear possible across parts of eastern South Australia before shifting into NSW, with a swathe of downslope winds extending northward from the Snowy Mountains along the Great Dividing Range.

While the forecast airmass is not especially cold, with temperatures reaching around -1 to -1.5°C at 850hPa, snowfall accumulations of up to 30cm may be possible across the Snowy Mountains through Monday, while a few snow flurries are also possible over the elevated terrain of the Central Tablelands of NSW.

Currently, however, the forecast scenario remains somewhat uncertain, largely owing to run-to-run model inconsistency regarding the position and track of the surface low. While most models indicate a subsequent southeasterly track into Bass Strait after the low initially deepens over land, uncertainty remains regarding this evolution.

Further updates to follow.

06/08/2026

Strong Winter Storm Developing for Eastern Australia

A deepening mid-latitude cyclone and attendant cold front are forecast to impact eastern Australia during the latter part of this weekend.

During Sunday, a surface low is forecast to rapidly deepen as it traverses eastward through Bass Strait, south of Victoria. Within a 24 hour period from Sunday morning, the latest ECMWF forecasts the system to deepen from 992hPa to 981hPa, becoming positioned just off the northeast coast of Tasmania.

The rapid deepening is being supported by a potent negatively tilted mid-level trough, with a 108kt jet streak forecast over central NSW. At the same time, a surface ridge is forecast to strengthen over central Australia.

As a result, a particularly tight pressure gradient is forecast to develop across parts of eastern NSW, further enhanced by the orography of the Great Dividing Range. Widespread damaging wind gusts of 90-110km/h appear possible, with the potential for destructive wind gusts across southeastern NSW. Across Bass Strait, wind gusts may exceed 140km/h near the surface low.

Both the latest GFS and ECMWF runs have also indicated the potential for accumulating snowfall across the Snowy Mountains and parts of the Great Dividing Range during Sunday evening, with some potential extending into southeastern parts of the Northern Tablelands.

It must be said, however, that there is considerable complexity associated with this system and its forecast evolution. The latest 00Z ACCESS run has indicated the surface low tracking much further north, near the Victoria New South Wales border as a mid 980hPa system, while other guidance keeps it further south.
Forecast uncertainty remains high regarding the exact evolution of this system, with a prolonged period of severe weather also likely to continue into next week.

Additional updates to follow

24/07/2026

Widespread Frost Developing Across New South Wales and Queensland

Widespread frost is expected to develop across parts of northern New South Wales, extending into portions of Queensland during Saturday morning.

Latest forecasts suggest minimum temperatures between -5°C and -6°C may be possible across the Glen Innes, Tamworth, and Armidale regions. Indications also suggest locations in central Queensland and New South Wales could see negative temperatures during the early morning, reaching -3°C to -4°C.

The overall risk of frost is extensive, however, and extends from central Queensland through eastern and central New South Wales southward to the Snowy Mountains.

A large, high amplitude 1037hPa ridge is currently dominating the synoptic surface pattern across the country. This is resulting in subsidence (sinking air), causing clear skies. Overnight, these clear skies will promote strong radiative cooling, causing surface temperatures to plummet below freezing in several areas.

12/07/2026

Heavy Rainfall possible for Perth and Southwest WA.

A period of increasing rainfall appears possible during the coming week, around Thursday into Friday as a series of cold fronts enter the region.

During Thursday afternoon and evening, an initial cold front is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest Land Division, before a secondary front follows during the later evening hours into Friday morning.

Ahead of the initial frontal boundary, northwesterly winds are forecast to advect a plume of precipitable water values nearing 38-39mm across the Perth region.

With the approach of a mid-level shortwave, recent model runs have indicated the potential for heavy rainfall to develop across the Perth, southwest and mid-west areas.
The latest ACCESS and ECMWF runs have a prominent swathe of significant totals between Perth and Jurien Bay. Outside of this swathe, a more broad coverage of rainfall is indicated across the southwest, to a lesser intensity.

Further updates to follow, as the evolution of this pattern becomes more apparent.

06/07/2026

New Record High Pressure Recorded in Australia!

A new high mean sea level pressure (MSLP) has been recorded today reaching 1044.4hPa at Ouse in Tasmania.

The previous Australian record stood at 1044.3hPa recorded in Launceston, Tasmania on June 7th, 1967 a record that has stood for 59 years.

Mean sea level pressure, is the atmospheric pressure corrected for sea level at a specific location or weather station.
While 1044.4hPa is now a new record for Australia, it is still a significant distance from the global record of 1083.8hPa in Siberia, Russia on December 31st 1968.

Strong anticyclones are more common during winter because colder air is denser and more stable. Upper level convergence adds mass to the atmospheric column, forcing subsidence within the high pressure system.
As this air sinks, it adiabatically compresses and warms, while the accumulated mass increases the total weight of the column, causing a raise in surface pressure.

These processes also reduce relative humidity, decreasing cloud formation, which is why highs are associated with clear skies and cold nights due to radiative cooling effects.

05/07/2026

Super Typhoon Bavi Intensifies to a Monster Cat 5

Super Typhoon Bavi has intensified into a Category 5 monster in the western Pacific after completing an eyewall replacement cycle.

This system is extremely powerful with a current intensity of 145kts (270km/h) and a central pressure of 911hPa!

To put this in perspective, the current eyewall diameter is around 45km across, which means to achieve the current central pressure of this storm, 1354 Trillion litres of air has been exhausted by the system or around 10% of the entire central column of air.

This system is expected to pass very close to Guam and Rota in the next day or so with a peak intensity of around 150kts (278km/h). Currently a huge, symmetrical central dense overcast of icy cloud tops surrounds a very powerful vortex of the tropical cyclone, with multiple Tornadic supercells streaming to the west just offshore from Guam.

This is a very dangerous storm for the Mariana Islands and may approach Taiwan over the next several days. A seriously impressive system!

Outbreak Weather

05/09/2026

05/09/2026

19/08/2026

12/08/2026

07/08/2026

06/08/2026

24/07/2026

12/07/2026

06/07/2026

05/07/2026

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