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Outbreak Weather, Perth (2026)

07/06/2026

Rainfall & Thunderstorms Increasing across Perth and Western Australia

Rainfall is expected to increase tomorrow and over the next several days associated with the arrival of multiple frontal systems.

During Monday afternoon and evening a cold front will approach the southwest land division bringing an increase in rainfall and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk of a few thunderstorms becoming severe.

A confined axis of instability along the frontal boundary with MLCAPE nearing 600-800J/kg, beneath relatively weak mid-level lapse rates of around 6.5°C/km and approximately 35kts of deep layer shear, may support isolated severe gusts with developing thunderstorms. The risk of severe wind gusts with developing thunderstorms is around 5-10%.

During Monday afternoon, rainfall accumulations between 15-35mm are possible, with the first frontal system. During Thursday, similar accumulations may also be possible with total accumulations nearing 50-70mm by Friday. Current model runs also suggest further rainfall during the weekend, although vary across spreads.

Further updates to follow.

04/06/2026

STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORMING AND AURORA POSSIBLE ————————————————————————
Strong Geomagnetic Storming (G3) has been forecast by NOAA SWPC as a result of multiple fast-moving, Halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) associated with eruptive M9.3, M7. and X1.0 Flares

GOES-19 and LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery indicate an asymmetrical CME Halo associated with this event biased toward the north and west with partial earth directed components.

Current WSA–ENLIL modelling places solar wind speed estimates at around 800-1000km/s due to a double impact.

As a result, NOAA SWPC and UKMO have issued G3 Geomagnetic Storm Watches respectively, with combined effects from multiple CME's possible.

Current averaged estimated arrival times: 4/6/2026 18:00 UTC ± (7 to 12 hrs). CME impact probabilities range from 60-90% due to the complex nature of multiple CME influences ————————————————————————
At least three Coronal Mass Ejections were noted in the observed imagery, most notable however is the modelled scenario where the initial CME associated with the M9.3, is followed by the X1.0 associated flare with the former eventually catching up.

This may result in a combination or cannibalistic effect.
HUXt Ensemble modelling also indicates similar impact probabilities and uncertainties; however, it differs slightly from other model runs, suggesting a later impact arrival time and solar wind speed estimates of 650 to 800km/s.
————————————————————————
Confidence of Earth arrival is moderate, shrouded by difficulty in modelling these CMEs due to the complex nature of the event.

The general consensus among Major Space Weather forecasts suggests G3 (STRONG) conditions are possible.

The estimated radial velocity of the CMEs is around 1400 km/s.

If all factors align and modelling verifies, visible auroras could be possible over the next day or so in major cities including Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth, as well as locations in between.

The CME’s estimated travel time is around 20 to 40 hours, though this is not guaranteed and could vary.

Upon the CME’s physical arrival, periods of geomagnetic activity may increase and decrease over the course of a day or so as the CME structure begins impacting Earth. (Conditional to Impact) This occurs in stages: the shock front/sheath followed by the main body/core.

The configuration of the flux rope determines how well its magnetic alignment couples with the magnetosphere. If the flux rope configuration is poor and contains mostly +Bz, aurora potential will be inhibited.
————————————————————————
IMPORTANT:
While the physical setup looks interesting, sustained southward magnetic field alignment (−Bz) upon arrival is essential for strong geomagnetic storming.

Sustained northward alignment (+Bz) can significantly inhibit or even prevent auroral activity. Think of this as how magnets behave: opposites attract (allowing charge flow), while like poles repel. For success, the Bz field component must trend negative (∂Bz/∂t < 0). ————————————————————————
The overall setup offers potential for aurora chasers, and could produce good displays if magnetic connection occurs in a favourable southward alignment for extended periods.
However, as previously mentioned, nothing is guaranteed.

If the CME is a MISS, unfavourable magnetic alignment occurs or the CME is delayed, aurora potential can be significantly diminished. Keep hope high, but expectations realistic.

Updates will follow once data is received at the L1 (Lagrange Point 1) ACE/DSCOVR satellites, clarifying exactly what this event may bring for us here on Earth.

Stay tuned, and feel free to ask any questions!

More updates will follow as data becomes available. Useful info in the comments ⬇️ ————————————————————————
NOAA Estimated Impact Times (Local)

AEST: 0400

ACST: 0330

AWST: 0200

(June 5th, 2026)

*SUBJECT TO CHANGE*

Australian-based weather conditions are listed below in the comments, including cloud coverage percentages (ACCESS-G, ECMWF & GFS).

The included map is based on past captures and comparative data from similar geomagnetic storming conditions and their potential extent.
It should be used as a guide only, as conditions can vary greatly depending on numerous factors.
Additionally, Earth weather effects are not considered by the map. ————————————————————————

03/06/2026

Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections Detected

Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections were detected overnight, associated with sunspot group AR4455.

At least three CMEs were observed in association with M9.3, M7.9, and X1.0 solar flares. These CMEs appeared as asymmetric halo events in coronagraph imagery as they erupted from the Sun.

The CMEs were relatively fast, with radial velocities exceeding 1000km/s, although they appeared somewhat faint and were biased toward the north and west of the solar disk. Nevertheless, Earth directed components are possible, making the current situation particularly interesting.

Further updates will follow.

02/06/2026

Rainfall Increasing across Southeastern Australia.

Rainfall is forecast to increase across the southeast over the next several days including SA, NSW, VIC and TAS as a Low pressure system remains relatively persistent in the region.

A vigorous low that has migrated eastward from Western Australia is beginning to enter the southeast as a 986hPa low that has become occluded, with a cold front that extends across central Victoria and NSW and the warm front draped across southern Tasmania.

This low is expected to be relatively persistent for the next two days or so exiting the region by Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of around 20-30mm are possible through western and central Victoria, extending into NSW. Isolated higher totals are possible about the elevated terrain and the southern NSW border region.

During late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, the pressure gradient is likely to be most substantial on the backside of the low near southwestern Victoria, assisted by a ridge in the western portions of the country. During this period, damaging wind gusts may develop along the southern coast of VIC as the system continues migrating eastward out of the region.

01/06/2026

CHECK OUT THE VIEW OF THE DEEP WA LOW

This deep low-pressure system passed very close to the southern coast of WA yesterday evening, deepening to 976hPa!

The system underwent rapid intensification from 1003hPa to 976hPa between 00UTC Saturday and 00UTC Sunday. This represents a pressure drop of 27hPa within a 24-hour period, firmly classifying the system as a ‘Bomb Cyclone’.

This system was particularly deep and tracked unusually close to the WA coast, causing widespread damage across southwest WA and the Perth metropolitan area. More than 40,000 properties remain without power due to significant damage to powerlines caused by damaging to destructive wind gusts.

Peak Wind Gusts Recorded at Official Stations:
135km/h – Cape Naturaliste 5:33pm
133km/h – Cape Leeuwin 4:56pm
120km/h – Busselton Jetty 6:39pm
108km/h – Jerdacuttup 11:42pm
107km/h – Ravensthorpe 10:47pm
106km/h – Garden Island 7:58pm
104km/h – Mandurah 8:07pm
100km/h – Jandakot Airport 8:14pm

The system will now shift east toward South Australia and Victoria as an occluded low, with the potential to bring damaging wind gusts on arrival.

What wind strength did you record or experience? ⬇️

31/05/2026

NEAR MISS: Car Crushed By Tree In Powerful Winds

Dangerous conditions are developing across Perth and southwestern WA this afternoon as conditions rapidly deteriorate ahead of the strongest winds expected later this afternoon and evening.

A car was crushed near Glen Iris in the Bunbury region after a large tree was brought down by powerful wind gusts, highlighting the dangerous conditions already impacting parts of the southwest.

Winds are expected to intensify further through this afternoon and evening, with destructive wind gusts of 130-140km/h possible in exposed areas as the deep low pressure system approaches the coast.

30/05/2026

Possible Tornado Detected Near Perth.

A possible tornado was detected in Perth near the suburbs of Maida Vale, Walliston, Bickley and Carmel this morning, subsequently tracking toward the southeast through Pickering brook around 0100-0115.

The rotational signature developed within a possible low-topped, semi-discrete supercell embedded within a QLCS, with the inflow region becoming partially open to the northeast beneath very strong low-level wind shear.

The circulation appeared most prominent for approximately 15 minutes shortly after 1am. However, the signature remained relatively broad and transient, lacking stronger identifying features including a tornado debris signature or reduced ZDR values.

At this stage, it remains unknown whether the circulation made ground contact or whether a tornado fully developed.

30/05/2026

Severe Thunderstorms Developing This Evening Across Perth and Southern WA.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and continue into tomorrow, with hazards including damaging to destructive wind gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and large hail.

From around 8pm, severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region as a cold front advances eastward in association with an approaching upper trough.

Along and immediately ahead of the boundary, strong northerly low-level flow of approximately 50-60kt will be present, transitioning to westerly winds with height. A plume of modest instability is expected to develop in close proximity to the boundary, supporting thunderstorm development.

Thunderstorms developing within this environment will become embedded within intense deep-layer shear of approximately 60-70kt, alongside very strong low-level shear. This combination will favour organised convection, including the development of semi-discrete supercells, and multiple QLCS lines.

In addition, pronounced backing of surface winds near the boundary will result in increased storm-relative helicity. Should storms develop within this environment, a couple of tornadoes may be possible.

Destructive convective wind gusts will also be a significant hazard, with an intense low-level jet capable of being transported to the surface through through downdrafts. Large hail is also possible with the more organised thunderstorms, although this is considered a secondary hazard compared to the wind potential.

During tomorrow, particularly through the afternoon and evening hours, widespread damaging wind gusts of 90–100km/h are expected to develop along the west coast as the surface low deepens and tracks closer to the coastline. Isolated destructive wind gusts of 120–145km/h also appear likely, especially in exposed coastal areas.

29/05/2026

Severe Thunderstorms Developing For Perth and Southern WA.

This is a risk of Severe Thunderstorms developing for Perth and Southern WA during Saturday evening extending into Sunday, with primary hazards including Damaging to Destructive Wind Gusts and Tornadoes.

A deep surface low is expected to develop near southern WA this weekend, which will include substantial deepening to potentially between mid 980 to mid 970hPa ranges.

During Saturday evening, the surface low will begin to develop in southern WA. Ahead of this, the attendant cold front boundary is expected to shift eastward toward the west coast. Ahead of this boundary, a moist boundary layer is expected with MLCAPE reaching 600-1000J/kg.

By around 2000AWST, the mid-level trough and the first associated jet streak will begin advancing into the region. Coincident with the advance, 0-6km deep layer shear is expected to reach 60-70kts across southwestern WA, as large scale ascent increases.

In response, a strong low-level jet is expected with approximately 50-55kt 850mb winds, that back significantly with height.
As a result, forecast soundings indicate expansive and enlarged hodographs with around 250-300ms2s2 of 0-1km Storm Relative Helicity, along this boundary, which are largely streamwise in the lowest few kilometres.

During the Saturday evening hours between 2000-2300, Significant Tornado Parameter values along the west coast are reaching between 0.8-1.5.
This environment is suggestive that a few tornadoes may occur with the approach of a QLCS, or potentially ahead of the line with semi-discrete/discrete supercells with prefrontal forcing, in addition to destructive downdraft winds.

Secondary, to these hazards large hail is also possible within organised storm structures, but is a lesser risk compared to the wind potential.

During Sunday afternoon and evening, wind gusts are likely to increase significantly, as the low-level jet increases further to 70-85kts across the southwest. Additional risks for Destructive wind gusts and Tornadoes exists during this time.
Further updates will follow.

28/05/2026

Significant & High-End Severe Weather Event for Perth & Southwest WA

Concern is increasing regarding a significant cold front and vigorous low-pressure system forecast to develop across southwest WA, including the Perth Metro, Mid West, and Bunbury regions.

Consecutive global model runs have consistently indicated the potential for a deep low pressure system to become positioned very close to the southern coast of WA during Sunday evening.

A potent mid-level trough with 105+ kt winds is expected to support substantial deepening of this surface low, with pressure estimates between the low 970hPa to mid 980hPa range.

In response to this substantial deepening, a very strong low-level jet is expected to develop. The latest ECMWF indicates this jet could reach 70–85kts across southern WA.

Forecast wind gusts are peaking at around 130-140km/h within the southwest land division, with a widespread swathe of damaging winds 90-100km/h spanning as far northward as Jurien Bay.

Additionally, concern exists regarding an environment that appears conducive to thunderstorm development. Should thunderstorms develop, the aforementioned winds aloft could mix down to the surface in thunderstorm downdrafts.

Extremely dangerous wave heights are also forecast, potentially reaching 6-10m. Storm surge impacts are likely across coastal regions during Sunday evening into Monday.

Indications suggest possible flooding of Riverside Drive and sections of the Kwinana Freeway within the Perth Metro area.

This current outlook does not resemble a typical cool-season frontal system, and while significant uncertainty remains regarding the resultant wind strengths and spatial coverage, the range of possibilities extends from a system experienced once a year at the low end to a potentially a once in a generation storm event on the High end.

At this stage, the most likely scenario appears to be a system with an intensity expected roughly once every five years.

Significant updates to follow.

Outbreak Weather

07/06/2026

04/06/2026

03/06/2026

02/06/2026

01/06/2026

31/05/2026

30/05/2026

30/05/2026

29/05/2026

28/05/2026

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