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West Weather Watchers, Bedford, Perth (2026)

29/05/2026

🚨 High-impact system for Southern WA 🚨

A significant and potentially dangerous weather system is forecast to impact parts of southern WA this weekend, with models indicating a deep low developing to the south of the state, potentially deepening to around 977 hPa 😱 The Bureau have issued a severe weather warning. They will also issue severe thunderstorm warnings throughout the weekend.

This system is expected to bring a range of impacts across the long weekend, which we’ve broken down below.

SATURDAY
- Models continue to show a trough-driven rainfall band developing across the Murchison and Central West, with tropical moisture feeding in from the northwest.
Rain is likely from Carnarvon to Geraldton, extending inland towards the Murchison and northern Central Wheatbelt.
- Falls of 20–45mm possible near the coast, decreasing inland.
- Later in the day, isolated SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS are forecast to develop along the trough across the Central and Lower West, supported by a strong upper-level jet streak and increased instability. The Bureau have just stated there is a real risk of TORNADOS along the leading edge of this trough.
- NNW winds strengthening along coastal areas late in the day, with gusts possibly reaching 100 km/h in exposed locations.

SUNDAY – Main Event
- Widespread gale-force winds are forecast to develop across much of the SWLD as the system deepens.
- There is a risk of coastal inundation in low-lying areas during periods of high tide, particularly around the Swan Coastal Plain.
- Very large swell is expected along the South West and Lower West coasts, with wave heights potentially reaching 8–10m offshore, leading to significant coastal erosion and hazardous beach conditions.
- The strongest winds are expected to occur from late Sunday afternoon into the evening, with damaging gusts possible in coastal zones in excess of 125km/h.
- Widespread rainfall of 10–20mm, with 40–50mm possible in the South West, especially in more persistent bands.

This is shaping up as a high-impact winter system, and conditions are more than likely to become very hazardous in exposed coastal and southern areas.

Please stay updated with the latest Bureau forecasts and warnings, and consider sharing and following us if you gain valuable information from this report.

Stay safe this weekend. ✌️

28/05/2026

🌀Cyclone strength winds forecast for WA🌀

With the approaching system, winds on the long weekend are forecast across broad areas to reach gale force to TC Category 1 strength, and model dependant possibly localised areas of Cat 2 😱

Gale-force winds are strong, sustained surface winds ranging from about 63 to 87 km/h. In Australia, forecasters issue severe warnings for sustained gale winds of 63 km/h or more, or when sudden wind gusts reach 90 km/h. Category 1 strength can deliver damaging winds, damage to some crops, trees and caravans. Craft may drag moorings. Maximum mean wind speed 63–88 km/h, and typical strongest gust is up to 125 km/h. As above, some models (such as the EC model) are suggesting winds to be in excess of this 125km/h which would be in line with Cat 2 cyclone strength. EC is going for a stingy tail of the low with forecast gusts along the capes of up to 140km/h.

These severe winds are going to be as a result of a deep low (sub 980hPA) close to the capes, pushing those winds up to the western edge of the SWLD. The strongest winds could be expected later on Sunday as conditions deteriorate into the evening. These winds will then rapidly contract to the South Coast during the night, where similar winds are forecast in excess of 110km/h. Calmer conditions can be expected on the west coast by sunrise on Tuesday the 2nd.

We would suggest avoiding the west coast of the SWLD on Sunday as this system is going to be particularly nasty, with 10m waves off Rotto, and SIGNIFICANT beach erosion in exposed areas.

A good time to stay data-driven and weather-ready by following us.

27/05/2026

👋 Bye bye cold front 👋

Overnight totals have been solid across much of southern parts of the lower west as forecast, with Pinjarra and Dwellingup recording over 60mm and Brunswick River over 50mm. It seems the moisture did not extent as far south and modeling projected. Hence areas in the south west missed out on these heavier falls and they were confined to the Lower West.

Perth officially recorded 18.8mm in the gauge at Mt Lawley.

The heavy rain alert issued was forecast well by models, as the Bureau issued a Severe thunderstorm warning for those parts, and many locations received the intense 1 hour totals as models forecast.

Broadly the OCF performed well with the exception of the SW rainfall bullseye that didn't come to fruition, however the totals in the SW were also solid with falls of 30-40mm.

Even in the Central West Jurien picked up almost 40mm - well picked by modeling. We are sorry we didn't make it rain exactly where the freely available forecast maps suggested it would - maybe next time 🤷😛

Next we move on to the weekends system which is going to be a cracker!

Many thanks to all our new followers over the past few days WA. 👌

27/05/2026

🌪️WATER SPOUT ALERT🌪️

Rader indicated possible water spout activity off Preston Beach 5.20pm.

27/05/2026

🌩️ Pre-frontal RAINFALL and THUNDERSTORMS 🌩️

At 4pm as a result of the pre frontal trough, showers and isolated storms have and are impacting the SWLD, and has so far brought falls of 20mm+ to isolated areas in the Southwest. Some of those heavy falls in Dunsborough saw 20mm in 15min.

The rainfall began impacting the SW around 10am today, bringing those training cells we have seen, as predicted by the ACCESS-C forecast modelling. The band now lies from approx. Bunbury to Denmark.

The actual cold front which lies approx. 450km off the coast, should impact the Perth metro later this evening, even into the early hours of Thursday, as its quite slow moving at around 40km/h. Throughout the evening, there could still be possible heavy falls for southern parts of the Lower West.

Here we have illustrated the trough in dashed blue moving SE, and the front off the coast moving easterly.

How are the conditions on your property? Feel free to share todays weather conditions below WA.

27/05/2026

Today is shaping up nicely - INCREASE in forecast rainfall

In recent model runs, rainfall totals have been increased in parts of the Southwest. Being only hours away from the main event, the Operational Consensus Forecast (OCF) has increased forecast totals in the SW - suggesting now there could be totals in the range of 70-80mm around Bunbury/Busselton. The forecast precipitable water values have also shifted further into that region, increasing confidence in heavier rainfall potential.

We favour the OCF model, as its one of the most reliable rainfall forecast tools available. Utilising ACCESS, EC, GFS, UKMO and JMA models, and rather than a simple average, the OCF applies an algorithm based on Mean Absolute Error (MAE). It continually checks how individual models performed at specific locations over the past 30 days, removes known biases, and heavily weights the models that have been the most accurate recently

As mentioned yesterday, high, short-term totals may occur with the passage of this system. The ACCESS-C model is showing increased confidence with embedded storms to be training through the Southwest and this is currently occurring, possibly bringing hourly totals of 30-40mm - hence the flooding concern in the forecast from the Bureau and the EWN.

Please keep us up to date with conditions in your area, and we will keep WA updated with forecasts, observations and conditions as they come to hand.

Today you should remain data-driven and weather-ready in the Southwest of the state.

26/05/2026

TROPICAL MOISTURE ALERT

As reported yesterday, you can now see on this morning's satellite image the vast volumes of tropical moisture being drawn in from the North West.

This cloud band is over 2500kms long and has contributed to a stunning sunrise for much of Perth. This moisture will also aid the possibility of heavy rainfall in the south of the Lower West, and adjacent Southwest regions later today with the passage of the frontal system.

We will update you in the progress of this system later today.

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26/05/2026

🌧️ HEAVY RAINFALL — MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING 🌧️

The above wording is now included in tomorrow’s forecast for southern parts of the Lower West and South West districts:

“The chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening, possibly severe with heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding.”

The setup is being supported by high PWAT (precipitable water) values, with deep moisture currently streaming in from the northwest ahead of the approaching cold front — locally nearing 40mm in most model guidance. This moisture plume is expected to interact with the front, increasing the risk of locally heavy rainfall across parts of the southwest.

This front is the RAIN maker — the weekend system is the WIND maker. As illustrated below, rainfall totals associated with the front and post-frontal onshore flow could be significant. Some guidance suggests localised 3-hour rainfall totals of 30–40mm may be possible, particularly in coastal areas from Jurien Bay to Bunbury between Wednesday evening and early Thursday.

Embedded thunderstorms are also likely with the frontal passage along the west coast, which may lead to locally heavier rainfall rates. If stronger convection develops, a severe thunderstorm warning for heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.

Wednesday into Thursday is prime time to be data-driven and weather-ready if you reside in these areas.

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25/05/2026

💦 WET and VERY WINDY 🌬️ Long weekend

The South West Land Division is in for a pounding this weekend as a result of one of the stronger systems we have seen recently.

A deep low pressure system, possibly deepening as low as 975hPA, is forecast to move close to the south of the state, bringing with it substantial rainfall and very strong winds, primarily on Sunday/Monday long weekend for the west coast, and Monday for the South Coast.

Model dependant, GUSTS to 120km/h are possible along a broad area of the west coast from mid to late Sunday as conditions deteriorate into the evening. For reference, these are being modelled as being possibly close to tropical cyclone Cat 1 strength. These winds are forecast to contract to the South coast during the early morning on Monday, and these exposed coastal regions could see similar strength gusts during this time. One thing of note is that for many hours SUSTAINED winds of more than 60-80km//h, can also be expected with the passage of this system, and these will be felt from early Sunday morning in western coastal parts.

MASSIVE waves and swells are also expected with possible wave heights off the west coast forecast to be in excess of 8m, and a 5m+ swell. SURFS UP!

This impact for the SW of the state is going to be felt over a large area, and should warrant a SEVERE WEATHER WARNING to be issued as early as Friday/Saturday by the Bureau.

This is a time to be data-driven and definitely weather-ready by following us ✌️

24/05/2026

⛈️ STORMS possible for lower WA

With the passage of a cold front later on Wednesday, western parts of WA could see isolated thunderstorms, including embedded activity within the frontal rainband, as a result of several favourable modelled parameters.

Favourable bulk shear, more than adequate instability, a moist environment and good lapse rates are some of the ingredients supportive of thunderstorm development. A strong mid-level jet is also forecast, helping to enhance lift and storm organisation.

Even the Elevated Helicity Index (EHI) — a composite forecasting tool combining instability and wind shear — is worth watching in this setup. While EHI values in Australia are typically much lower than those seen in the USA, it can still provide useful guidance on the potential for stronger storm activity.

Could the Bureau issue a severe weather or severe thunderstorm warning on Wednesday if these ingredients align? Time will tell, though that will ultimately depend on whether storms are expected to produce hazards such as damaging winds or hail.

Below is the storm probability map for 8pm Wednesday, based on ACCESS (AU) guidance. The red shading suggests an enhanced to moderate chance of thunderstorms, though isolated storms may be possible anywhere within the circled region as the front moves through. The other majors are also in agreement on the possibility of storm activity, with varying potential.

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24/05/2026

❄️ ICE central in parts this morning🥶

Once again as the OCF has predicted, some parts have woken to heavy frost.

As you can see by the image, some areas dipped below -3 degrees this morning thanks to a lovely high pressure system, creating those settled conditions.

Perth had a chilly start waking up to 2.5 degrees just before 7am, making it the coldest morning of the year.

How cold was it on your property?

Crack that follow button if you want to continue to check out our reports.

Thanks WA ✌️

West Weather Watchers

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