07/15/2025
Royal LePage's Q2 2025 Home Price Update and Market Forecast - Inventory climbs, confidence stirs, and the recovery quietly begins.
The Royal LePage Home Price Update and Market Forecast was released to the media this morning. This national quarterly report covers 64 major markets across Canada and gives us the clearest picture yet of where real estate is—and where it might be heading.
The start of the 2025 spring market—typically the busiest season of the year—was unusually quiet in many major cities, including Toronto and Vancouver. Global uncertainty, a pending federal election, and steady borrowing rates left many homebuyers in wait-and-see mode. While buyers paused, sellers stayed active, leading to a buildup in inventory and a shift in market dynamics.
As Phil Soper, CEO of Royal LePage, put it:
“Homebuyers approached the start of the 2025 spring market with hesitation... Yet, market fundamentals remain sound; interest is strong while activity is subdued. June’s robust employment report may help rebuild confidence and bring more buyers off the sidelines.”
Let’s look at how this played out in the GTA.
Key Market Stats – GTA (Q2 2025)
Aggregate home price: $1,155,300
Year-over-year price change: –3.0%
Quarter-over-quarter change: +0.8%
These numbers reflect a soft landing, not a sharp correction. Prices remain stable quarter-to-quarter and show early signs of firming as demand slowly rebuilds.
Property Segment Highlights – GTA
Detached Homes:
Down just 1.2% year-over-year, detached homes are holding their ground. The median price sits at $1,448,700, and interest is steady—especially in well-priced properties with strong fundamentals.
Condominiums:
Condos saw a larger adjustment, with median prices down 5.6% year-over-year, landing at $699,700. New construction completions continue to add supply, particularly in investor-heavy pockets. That said, larger condo layouts are attracting first-time buyers looking for space and long-term value.
What We’re Seeing on the Ground
More listings. Sellers are active, and buyers have more choice than they’ve had in years.
Measured optimism. Buyers are showing up again—curious, cautious, and ready to act when the numbers make sense.
Steadier pricing. Despite the headlines, quarter-over-quarter prices are ticking upward. The market may be finding its footing.
National Outlook
Royal LePage expects the GTA home price to increase 2.0% by Q4 2025, suggesting a gradual but stable recovery. This revised forecast reflects slower-than-usual activity in Ontario earlier this year, but also confidence in long-term fundamentals.
Across Canada, national home prices were up 0.3% year-over-year, and down 0.4% from Q1. Quebec continues to outperform, while Ontario and British Columbia adjust. Overall, we’re seeing a “wait-and-see” environment shift into a “watch-and-move” phase.
Final Thoughts
This is a strategic window for both buyers and sellers. The market is balanced, negotiable, and less emotionally reactive than in recent years. Buyers have leverage. Sellers have clarity—especially those who price smartly and prepare well.
Have questions about your next step? Want to talk strategy for summer or fall? I’m here.
👇 Click below to read the full Q2 Market Report
Get the latest insights on Canada’s and Toronto’s real estate market in Q2 2025. Home prices soften, inventory climbs, and cautious buyers wait. What’s next? Luba Beley breaks it down.
