01/11/2025
The Islamic Republic of Iran as a Systemic Risk in the Multipolar World Order: The New U.S. Strategy After the 12-Day War - Part 2
â By Ghasem Rouhi
The Islamic Republic as Strategic Adversary and Systemic Risk
The 12-day military conflict in the summer of 2025 severely damaged Iranâs nuclear ambitions and much of its military infrastructure but did not end them. U.S.-Israeli cooperation destroyed major nuclear sites and eliminated substantial portions of Iranâs leadership. Nonetheless, the regime remains operational â having learned over decades to disperse, obscure, and adapt its programs. Its endurance, even after heavy military losses, demonstrates how resilient hybrid autocracies have become in a multipolar environment.
Iran, Russia, and China: The New Counter-Triangle
The current phase is defined by a strategic triangle linking Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran â a counterweight to the U.S.-led Western order. Iran leverages these partnerships to ease economic strain, modernize its military, and bypass global sanctions. Russia and China not only support Iranâs defense industries but also facilitate shifts in influence across the Middle East, Central Asia, and beyond. This emerging axis increasingly challenges established global power structures.
U.S. Strategy Under President Trump: Preventive, Coordinated, Maximal
President Trumpâs new U.S. strategy identifies Iran, China, and Russia as the central challenges to the global order. It demands zero uranium enrichment, full transparency, and control over missile and drone programs â reinforced by sanctions, direct diplomacy, and the explicit threat of military force. A core principle is avoiding divisions among Washington and its allies while blocking any tactical breathing room for Tehran. Direct talks occur only under strict preconditions; their failure is intended to justify further military measures. Simultaneously, cooperation with Israel and the E3 states (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) is being expanded to dismantle Iranâs âRing of Fireâ network of proxies.
Image sources:
1. realdonaldtrump (Instagram)
2. LinkedIn profile of RadosĹaw Sikorski, retrieved on November 1, 2025