06/02/2026
Who wins Ayawaso East?
The poll of general voters shows Hajia Amina Adam leading with 58% and Baba Jamal 32%.
However, the predictive model using delegates responses to the question of whether Hajia should not have contested due to Iddah shows Hajia still leads with 50% and Baba Jamal 38%, suggesting that the Iddah issue did affect Hajia but not significant to derail her chances. However, when delegates responses to the vetting issue was used, the predictive model puts Hajia on 54% and Baba Jamal on 35%.
The NDC primaries is first past-the-post, meaning any candidate than secures simple majority wins. From the above data, it is evidenced that there is a strong correlation between general voters, NDC voters and NDC delegates in Ayawaso East.
If this prediction pans out, it will have major impact on the main NDC leadership race models for the 2028.
Fingers crossed.
Credit: Musah Dankwah
