Africa Macro Intelligence

07/07/2026

On Ghana-South Africa Relations

Diplomacy must be principled.

Ghana has a duty to defend the safety and dignity of its citizens, while South Africa has a responsibility to demonstrate that every African living within its borders enjoys equal protection under the law.

The real objective should not be diplomatic isolation, but restoring the trust upon which Pan-African cooperation depends.

Lord Fiifi Quayle
Founder, Chief Analyst
Africa Macro Intelligence

05/07/2026

June 5, 2026

The US has ended AUSSOM funding, the AU's 12,000-strong Somalia peacekeeping mission is described as "finished" by a senior diplomat, and the UN Human Rights Council held an emergency session July 3 on Sudan's El Obeid where 500,000 civilians face imminent RSF atrocities.

The US also imposed a second round of chemical weapons sanctions on Sudan.

Lord Fiifi Quayle
Founder, Chief Analyst
Africa Macro Intelligence

03/07/2026

Key developments July 2 → July 3:

Ivory Coast Eurobond

Ivory Coast raised $1.3bn via a 15-year Eurobond at 5.39%, drawing $6.3bn in orders, as the IMF cleared an $832.8m disbursement and Fitch held a BB rating.
The West African nation raised $1.3 billion through a Eurobond issue with a final maturity of 15 years, with the issue oversubscribed by nearly five times.

Africa debt market return

Sub-Saharan Africa has returned to the Eurobond market in force in 2026, with Kenya, Ivory Coast, Cameroon and others also raising funds in its strongest start to a year in over a decade.

Ethiopia IMF and Eurobond

The authorities continue their efforts to advance debt restructuring, with several bilateral agreements signed with official creditors and significant progress made with several external commercial creditors, with staff welcoming the agreement-in-principle reached with Eurobond holders.

However, private creditor talks collapsed on May 27 after a negotiating window running from May 6 failed to produce agreement, with a preliminary deal reached in January 2026 proposing a 15% principal haircut and new bond issuance rejected by official creditors on comparability of treatment grounds.

Lord Fiifi Quayle
Founder, Chief Analyst
Africa Macro Intelligence

02/07/2026

July 2 2026

Nigeria has said it will seek compensation from South Africa for citizens who abandoned businesses, homes and other assets while fleeing the anti-migrant protests,

Nigerian officials are documenting losses suffered by nationals who returned home or are awaiting repatriation, maintaining that some of those affected were legally resident in South Africa.

Senegal's National Assembly passed a sweeping constitutional amendment that limits presidential powers: strengthening parliament, banning the president from leading a political party, creating a new Constitutional Court, and requiring government to inform parliament of natural resource exploitation agreements.

Opposition MPs walked out, protesters attempted to storm the building and were repelled by tear gas, Faye has announced the matter will go to a national referendum.

Algeria is holding legislative elections.

Nigeria's Borno State: a Boko Haram attack targeted a secondary school in Lassa.

And the UN reports a deadly convoy attack in South Sudan's Jonglei State.

Lord Fiifi Quayle
Founder, Chief Analyst
Africa Macro Intelligence

30/06/2026

ZAR HOLDS NEAR MARCH HIGHS — MARKET PRICES JUNE 30 AS CONTAINED

USD/ZAR is trading around 16.40-16.42, close to its highest level since early March, having ranged between 16.40 and 16.66 over the past week. SARB Governor Kganyago flagged early signs of second-round inflation effects following May's 4.5% inflation print, the steepest since July 2024 and signalled the central bank may need to act further, though the US-Iran peace deal has eased some pressure by stabilising oil flows.

The currency's stability through the most politically intense week of the year. Kenya's June 25 anniversary, Zimbabwe's constitutional amendments, Bafana's World Cup elimination, and now June 30 itself confirms that markets assessed the South African political risk as containable rather than systemic.

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30/06/2026

RAMAPHOSA: GOVERNMENT WELCOMES PEACEFUL ASSURANCES, WARNS AGAINST VIOLENCE

President Ramaphosa said the government welcomed assurances that planned protests would remain peaceful, while warning that violence would not be justified under any circumstances. Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi, who chairs the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Migration, told Al Jazeera that rhetoric had moderated over the weekend following government warnings, that organisers had stressed marches must remain peaceful, and flagged concerns that pamphlets were being circulated without organisers' knowledge — illustrating the diffuse, leaderless nature of parts of the movement: "There is no single structure that says, 'This is what we are doing.'" March and March founder Ngobese-Zuma rejected the xenophobia label, framing the movement as standing up for South Africans rather than against foreigners.

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30/06/2026

ZIMBABWEANS SLEPT OUTSIDE BEDFORDVIEW CONSULATE OVERNIGHT — CHILDREN IN THE COLD

Outside the Zimbabwe Consulate in Bedfordview, Zimbabwean men, women and children waiting for transport home spent the night on the street in the cold. A Salvation Army aid worker assessing food needs in the area broke down describing the many children who slept outside overnight. Most people did not know exactly where the buses taking them home would stop — one man told News24 he believed they were headed to Beitbridge but was not certain.

This is the human reality underlying the political story: regardless of how peacefully the marches themselves proceed, thousands of migrants and their children have already experienced real hardship and fear as a direct consequence of the June 30 mobilisation, deadline or no legal deadline.

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30/06/2026

JUNE 30 GROUND TRUTH: PROTESTS PEACEFUL SO FAR, NO LOOTING OR DAMAGE REPORTED

As of Tuesday morning, Eastern Cape police commissioner Lieutenant General Vuyisile Ncata reported no incidents of damage or looting by anti-illegal immigration protesters, with police fully prepared to monitor protests across the province. Marches were proceeding in Soweto (Thokoza Park, where organisers asked political parties not to distribute campaign material, "this is not about politics, it's about South Africa"), Daveyton, Durban (March and March route from King Dinuzulu Park to South Beach), and outside the Western Cape Legislature where crowds continued to grow.

About 500 protesters had already conducted a "dress rehearsal" march from Orange Farm to Sebokeng in the Vaal on Saturday, peacefully.

This pattern — large media buildup, smaller and largely orderly actual turnout — has now repeated multiple times through June.

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29/06/2026

Floods should no longer surprise us.

Africa Macro Intelligence extends its thoughts to everyone affected by today’s flooding across Accra.

Three weeks ago, we warned that the city faced heightened flood risk and argued that Africa must move from reacting to disasters to anticipating them.

Today’s events are not simply the result of heavy rainfall. They expose a broader challenge

The gap between risk information and public action.

The future belongs to governments and institutions that treat forecasting as a decision-making tool, not merely a weather report.

Infrastructure planning, fiscal policy, insurance, urban development, and emergency preparedness must all be informed by forward-looking risk intelligence.

Africa cannot afford to manage climate risks one flood at a time.

Prediction without preparation is merely information.

Resilience begins when intelligence shapes policy.

Africa Macro Intelligence