09/09/2025
I Got Interviewed ---- It's cool. Read it here first:
NDIS Providers on the Edge: Government Instability and Rising Marketing Costs Threaten Survival
Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is in crisis. With ballooning costs, shifting legislation, and an unstable Labor government struggling to contain the fallout, the providers who deliver frontline care are facing an uphill battle. Industry experts warn that unless providers adapt—and quickly—many will collapse under the weight of compliance, competition, and confusion.
The figures are alarming. According to the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission, there are now more than 21,000 registered providers across Australia. Yet, dozens are exiting the market every quarter, citing financial strain and the impossible task of navigating rules that change faster than they can adjust. Parliament was notified of 59 provider exits in just four months following one pricing review. Meanwhile, demand is growing. NDIA’s own data shows more than 26,000 new participants joined the scheme in a single quarter of 2025. This contradiction—rising demand paired with shrinking supply—exposes the deep cracks running through the system.
Industry reports echo the same warning. National Disability Services’ 2024 State of the Sector report confirmed that a large proportion of providers are already operating at a loss. Thin markets persist in regional areas, support workers remain in short supply, and price controls have eroded margins to breaking point. For many, the question is no longer how to grow, but how to survive.
We interviewed highly respected Aristotelis Dimou of Square Meters Digital, the agency that has already helped over 2,500 providers stabilise and grow. Known as the go-to firm for registration companies like Health Provider Assist and Healthcare Consulting, Square Meters has become the benchmark in NDIS provider marketing. While other agencies such as NDIS Growth Hub and Allied Health Digital support sections of the market, industry consensus is clear—Square Meters is the most battle-tested.
Dimou, with more than three decades of health and disability marketing experience in Australia, the UK, and Europe, is blunt about the root cause of the current chaos. “The NDIS is at breaking point—and the government is to blame. Participants aren’t getting the services they deserve, and providers are being punished with endless legislation and moving goalposts. Every quarter, new rules are announced that make it harder to operate, harder to plan, and harder to serve participants. If you’re not actively building trust, visibility, and referral pathways right now, you risk being invisible—or gone.”
Marketing Spend at Rock Bottom
Dimou has conducted market research with leading agencies in his network, and the findings are bleak. Despite the scale of competition, most providers are investing less than 5% of their annual revenue in marketing. In service industries, benchmarks often sit at 10–15%, especially in competitive environments. In the NDIS, where participants are choosing between tens of thousands of providers, the shortfall is glaring.
This lack of investment is colliding with record competition. With so many providers vying for the same participants and support coordinators, visibility has become a survival factor. Those who fail to reach the right audience risk falling into obscurity, no matter how strong their services may be.
Rising Costs and Ruthless Algorithms
Making matters worse, the platforms providers rely on for advertising—Google and Facebook—have turned into battlegrounds. Cost-per-lead for disability services has soared to between $80 and $200, with some campaigns spiking even higher.
Dimou explains why: “Google and Facebook know exactly how valuable one participant is to a provider. A single client can mean tens of thousands of dollars in lifetime value. Their algorithms are designed to push bidding wars higher. If you don’t know how to manage those algorithms, you’ll pay more than you should—and you’ll burn through your budget fast.”
According to research shared within Dimou’s network, agencies with deep algorithm expertise routinely cut costs by 30–50% compared to providers attempting campaigns themselves. In real terms, that means saving thousands of dollars each month—savings that can be redirected into staffing, compliance systems, and participant care.
But advertising is just one part of the equation. Organic search, local reputation, and digital credibility now carry just as much weight. Families and coordinators are less likely to trust providers with outdated websites, vague service descriptions, or no proof of compliance awareness. In a market where scrutiny is tightening, first impressions are often the deciding factor.
Instability at the Top
The government’s handling of the NDIS is drawing fire from all sides. Reforms announced in the 2023 NDIS Review promised a more sustainable system, but instead providers have been hit with heavier compliance demands, stricter pricing rules, and unclear reform timelines. Critics argue that instability has become the default setting for the scheme.
Dimou says this instability is compounding the financial challenges. “We are in a sector where demand is rising, competition is cut-throat, and government rules are unstable. Providers who think they can sit back and rely on referrals are the ones we’re seeing exit the market. The winners will be those who actively control how they are seen, who they reach, and how much it costs them to secure a participant.”
The risk is more than financial. As smaller providers disappear, participants are left stranded in service deserts. Already, thin markets in regional areas have been identified as critical weak points. Without urgent action, more communities could lose essential supports altogether.
