16/07/2025
16th July 2025
Daily Analysis & Outlook for 17th July 2025, Thursday
Price Action & Trend
NIFTY closed at 25,212.05, gaining 16.25 points or +0.06% on the day. This marks the second straight session of recovery after the index bounced from the 50-day simple moving average (now at 24,999). While the close was marginal, it continues to signal a stabilizing market. The index is holding above the short-term horizontal support at 25,116 and inching toward the 20-day SMA at 25,309, which remains an important hurdle.
Candlestick Pattern
Today’s candle resembles a long-legged Doji, characterised by a small real body and a long lower wick. This pattern reflects market indecision — buyers stepped in at lower levels, but the bulls couldn’t sustain higher prices by close.
Volume & Momentum
Today’s volume was subdued, lower than the 20-session average. This indicates a lack of strong conviction behind the price move. While the recent rebound from the 50-day SMA is encouraging, the absence of follow-through volume suggests that big players are waiting for clearer directional confirmation.
Key Levels to Watch
Support remains firm at the 50-day SMA (24,999) and the horizontal zone around 25,116. On the upside, the immediate resistance is the 20-day SMA at 25,309. A sustained move above that could open the path toward 25,330–25,380, which is a critical zone from the previous rectangle pattern.
Outlook
NIFTY is currently in a phase of consolidation with early signs of recovery. If the index manages to close above 20-day SMA currently at 25,309 in the next session or two, it could trigger a short-term breakout toward higher levels. Until that happens, the short-term view stays neutral to cautiously bullish, while the medium-term trend continues to remain positively biased as long as the index holds above the 24,500–24,460 support zone.
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