28/08/2024
Jammu and kashmire Assembly Elections and politics (An Analysis)
Jammu and kashmir UT is scheduled to go for much awaited assembly elections on 90 seats after 10years in three phases. In phase 1 voting will be on 18 september 2024, phase 2 voting will be on 25 september while third and last phase voting will be on 1 october 2024. Results will be declared on 4 october 2024 and election process will be concluded before 6 october 2024.
It is importnat to mention here that last elections were held in jammu and kashmir way back in 2014 when Jammu and Kashmir was a state and a total of 87 seats were there(7 reserved for SC). Out of these 87 seats 46 seats were of Kashmir region 37 of Jammu region and 4 of Ladakh region. PDP came out as largest party with 28 setas followed by BJP with 25 seats, while NC secured 15 congress 12 and others 7. PDP and BJP formed coalition goverment headed by Late M***i Mohd Sayeed as Chief Minister. After sad death of M***i mohd sayeed, his daughter Mehbooba M***i became Chief Minister but government failed to complete its tennure.
Meanwhile BJP was in power at centre and abrogated Article 370 and 35A, which was their long time agenda and part of election manifesto. State of Jammu and Kashmir was downgraded to Union Territory with Legislature while Ladakh UT was also carved out of it.
Resultantly UT of Jammu and Kashmir was left with 83 assembly constituencies which was increesed 90 assembly constituencies. It is pertinant to mention here that after reorganization assembly constituencies of Jammu were increased from 37 to 43 and that of Kashmir from 46 to 47. It was aimed to bring a balance of power between two regions.
In the meantime Local bodies elections were held which provided some sort of voice to the people but mainly the people of UT remained deprived of their democraric right to elect their government for many years. Central government of NDA led by BJP delayed elections on pretext of security issues but in the meantime Parliamentary elections were held in UT which contradicts their claim.
With declaration of election schedule by Election Commissioner of India, we can see a sudden rise in political activities in the UT. Some people are leaving their old bastons and trying to find political career in new paries while many are returning to their parent parties. Here is a brief overview of current status of Major political parties of UT of Jammu and Kashmir.
NC: NC performed better than all other political parties in recently concluded parliamentary elections although its chief minister candidate Mr. Omar Abdullah was defeated by imprisoned Er. Rasheed from Baramullah Lok Sabha constituency, which is a big question mark on popularity and acceptability of Omar Abdullah. Another statement of Omar Abullah wherein he refused to contest assembly elections until Jammu and Kashmir is UT is also haunting him. Pre poll alliance with congress will increse their chances of forming a government but asking their potential MLA candidates to compaign for congress is also a big concern as it may demoralize their voters and workers.
BJP: BJP is in stong position in Jammu region and performed well in recently concluded parliamentary elections , although BJP did not filed its candidates in Kashmir and Pir Panjal region. BJP is expected to contest this election with their tested and tried formula of not presenting a Chief Minister face and asking voters to vote for PM. BJP will contest on all 90 assembly seats and has issued a list of candidates. there was a widespread outcry from within the party against the nominated candidates as majority of them recently joined the party and are alien to the local party workers. BJP is expecting a good share of votes from Pahari community as they fulfilled their demand of granting ST status
to Pahari Community. It is important to mention here that BJP has a lot on stake in this election as this is first assembly election after abrogation of Article 370 and 35A by BJP govt.
Congress: Flying high on their performance in parliamentary elections under INDI Alliance, and here congress managed to bring alliance with NC which is quite a stong regional contestant. This alliance has brought many problems for congress at natinaol level as well like Manifesto of NC which talks about restoration of article 370, 35A, statehood etc
PDP: PDP is fighting for its survival as political party in this election. PDP performed miserably in recently concluded Lok Sabha elections and their chief mininster candidate Mrs. Mehbooba M***i lost the Lok Sabha elections from Rajouri-Poonch-Anantnag constituency. Its previous alliance with BJP is also haunting as people consider them responsible for bringing BJP in power in 2014 .There are still some faces in party which are capable of pulling crowd and giving tough time to political opponents.
people's mandate is very important for all parties especially BJP and NC. BJP mandate will establish that that people of jammu and kashmir were against 370 and 35a and they have faid in developmental agenda of the party while NC mandate will establish vice versa .
