31/07/2025
US-India trade deal in limbo, despite US achieving a victory In Pakistan without even firing a bullet. My perspective:
1. America wanted China out of Pakistan and to stop China's access to the Indian Ocean by hook or crook. The US has been successful in this.
2. The US deep state orchestrated the Pulwama attack in J&K, knowing India would attack Pakistan and get involved in a long-term military conflict. However, that didn't happen as planned. But it's clear the US has captured Pakistan back from China.
3. On the other hand, India isn't bowing down to Trump's demand to open up its dairy and farm sectors, which were main supporters and fund providers for his presidency. Reaching a deal with India before the midterm polls in the US is critical for Trump to win the elections.
4. Trump is under pressure to get Russia to the discussion table, which he's not getting. So, he wants to put pressure primarily on RICs and further on BRICS countries.
5. Trump has been unable to bring peace to the Middle East, even between Israel and its neighbors, including Iran, which are still fighting. So, his dreams of getting the Nobel Peace Prize, like Obama did, are hindered.
I hope it will be settled by Sept-Oct 2025, but till then, it will keep creating havoc in Indian financial markets.
Kanwar R D Singh
