Martin Emerson Low

24/08/2025

The Bitcoin Outlook:

1. The Bull Market could easily extend into 2027.

Bernstein analysts project that the current bull market in Bitcoin might persist through 2027, beyond the usual four-year cycles. They believe BTC could reach $200,000 within the next 6–12 months (i.e., potentially by mid‑2026).

However, some experts caution that this outlook may be overly optimistic, with more conservative estimates placing a peak between $140,000–$150,000 by late 2025.

2. Technical Forecast: A Near-Term Spike is possible.

Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could break out above $123K–$125K by the end of August 2025. If this happens, it could push toward $128K in the following days.

Looking ahead to September, there’s potential for BTC to trade in the $119K–$123K zone. If momentum continues, BTC might even reach $150K–$160K, especially if a strong catalyst such as renewed ETF inflows or institutional buying emerges. It is important to remember that paper trades not made on exchanges seem to have little to no effect on the price changes.

Longer-term forecasts through late 2025 see a range of outcomes, from $125K to potentially $200K, driven by ETF demand and institutional adoption.

3. Sentiment from Surveys and Forecasts

A survey by Finder suggests Bitcoin could rise beyond $160K this year, with some optimistic respondents estimating a peak as high as $250K in 2025

Timeline Summary

Timeframe Possible Range & Conditions

Late August 2025 Breakthrough above $123K–$125K could lead to a spike toward $128K within days

September 2025 Trading in the $119K–$123K range; strong catalysts could push BTC to $150K–$160K

Late 2025 Analyst forecasts vary from $125K–$200K, with upside to $250K in more optimistic views

Mid-2026 Bernstein sees potential for BTC to reach $200K, possibly sooner in the cycle

Clinching key resistance levels like $125K–$128K could signal a short-term breakout.

Continued ETF inflows, regulatory tailwinds, and investor demand may sustain a longer upward move.

If bullish cycles stretch further than before driven by macroeconomic trends and digital asset policy shifts then a $200K milestone by mid-2026 becomes feasible.

Final Thoughts

A near-term rally could be unfolding, potentially within days if Bitcoin pushes past the $125K barrier. But the real story may lie in whether the current bull phase sustains through 2026 and into 2027, as institutional adoption and ETF inflows reshape crypto’s trajectory.

21/08/2025

Here is the current Bitcoin price and what likely lies ahead for both this week and this month:

The price is $114,125.00 currently with a change of $1,001.00 (0.01%) from the previous close.

The intraday high is $114,610.00 USD and the intraday low is $112,482.00 USD.

Bitcoin Outlook: This Week

Volatility and Correction: Bitcoin has pulled back from its recent peaks, dropping from around $124,000 to approximately $113,000, suggesting a cautious market amid macroeconomic headwinds. Investors are closely watching for a market floor and stability to return. ([Barron's][1], [The Times of India][2])

Jackson Hole Spotlight: This week’s focal point is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech, potentially signaling future U.S. interest rate policy. The market is bracing for market-moving cues from his remarks. ([AInvest][3])

Retail Sentiment Dips: According to Sentiment, retail investor sentiment has turned “ultra‑bearish” as prices hover around $113K, often a contrarian signal that a short-term rebound may follow. ([Live Bitcoin News][4])

Summary for the week: Expect continued caution, sensitivity to Powell’s speech, and potential downward pressure before any turnaround. For traditional yet forward-looking analysis, keep an eye on how these macro cues transition into renewed confidence.

Bitcoin Outlook: This Month (August 2025)

Monthly Range Forecasts:

Changelly forecasts a trading range of $114,169 to $121,169, averaging around $111,600 for August. ([changelly.com][5])

TradersUnion forecasts a modest 0.95% rise over a month to approximately $115,376 from current levels. ([Traders Union][6])

Bullish Momentum Still Present:

Optimistic voices anticipate a move up to $135,000 this month, buoyed by institutional inflows and legitimacy gains via government and ETF support. ([MarketWatch][7], [Indiatimes][8])

Mixed Sentiment:

While some technical analysts note Bitcoin may be finding a floor around $108,600—even in the face of ETF outflows—overall interest remains solid. ([MarketPulse][9])

A few long‑term forecasts remain encouraging. For instance, Bitwise projects a 28% compound annual growth rate over the next decade, implying a potential price of $1.4 million by 2035. ([DL News][10])

Traditional, Forward-Looking Perspective

Traditional Roots: Historically, Bitcoin has followed cycles heavily influenced by macroeconomic shifts and institutional adoption. This month’s volatility falls in line with such patterns.

Forward-Thinking Insights:

Institutional Support: New legitimacy through U.S. policy developments—like permitting crypto in 401(k) plans—and rising ETF participation offer sustained bullish momentum.

([News.com.au][11], [en.wikipedia.org][12])

Halving Impact: Remember, the April 2024 halving reduced new supply, enhancing Bitcoin’s scarcity and potential price strength going forward. ([theaustralian.com.au][13])

Long-Term Growth: While short-term fluctuations persist, institutional forecasts (e.g. Bitwise’s ~30% annualized growth) suggest Bitcoin is shaping up as a transformative asset. ([The Block][14])

Final Takeaway

This Week: Wired for volatility with price hovering around $113K and reactions to Powell’s speech likely to set the tone.

This Month: Potential trading range between $114K and $121K, with room for upside to $135K if institutional momentum accelerates.

Overall Sentiment: A prudent blend of historical caution and forward-looking optimism holding through the ebb and flow yet watching for macro and institutional catalysts that may carry Bitcoin higher in the longer term.

[1]: https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-crypto-fed-minutes-d131d68c "Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP Fall Ahead of Fed Minutes. Why Rate Cuts Matter for Crypto."

[2]: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/cryptocurrency/crypto-market-losing-steam-bitcoin-slides-toward-113000-after-124000-peak-ethereum-near-4100-what-experts-have-to-say/articleshow/123401836.cms "Crypto market losing steam? Bitcoin slides toward $113,000 after $124,000 peak, Ethereum near $4,100- What experts have to say"

[3]: https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-powell-final-jackson-hole-speech-shape-bitcoin-price-outlook-2508/ "Bitcoin News Today: Powell's Final Jackson Hole Speech to Shape Bitcoin's Price Outlook"

[4]: https://www.livebitcoinnews.com/santiment-retail-outlook-has-become-ultra-bearish-as-bitcoin-trends-towards-110k/ "Sentiment: Retail Outlook Has Become “Ultra Bearish” As Bitcoin Trends Towards $110k"

[5]: https://changelly.com/blog/bitcoin-price-prediction/ "Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 - 2030"

[6]: https://tradersunion.com/currencies/forecast/btc-usd/daily-and-weekly/ "Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction"

[7]: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-extends-rally-hits-record-high-above-124-000-677302d9 "Bitcoin extends rally, hits record high above $124,000"

[8]: https://indiatimes.com/partner/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-still-targeting-135k-dollars-in-august-here-are-best-altcoins-to-buy-now-before-they-explode-667329.html "Bitcoin price prediction: BTC still targeting $135K in august - Here are best altcoins to buy now before they explode"

[9]: https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/bitcoin-btcusd-price-outlook-mixed-signals-as-bearish-potential-grows-108600-may-hold-the-key/ "Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Mixed Signals as Bearish Potential Grows, $108600 May Hold the Key"

[10]: https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/bitwise-predicts-tenfold-bitcoin-price-increase-by-2035/ "Bitcoin will grow at 30% per year for the next decade, says Bitwise. Here’s what price it targets"

[11]: https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/frenzy-as-bitcoin-smashes-alltime-record/news-story/0b1271a18be699cebdb12ba747c1c652 "Bitcoin price: Frenzy as crypto smashes all-time record"

[12]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_bitcoin_reserve_%28United_States%29 "Strategic bitcoin reserve (United States)"

[13]: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/wealth/investing/bitcoin-and-crypto-sceptics-are-being-converted-heres-why/news-story/d93fcc03f90d474de4e4c773fa1e4b4a "Bitcoin rally: What's behind the cryptocurrency's massive gains, and what's next?"

[14]: https://www.theblock.co/post/367610/bitwise-bitcoin-10-years-traditional-assets "Bitwise forecasts bitcoin to outperform traditional assets over next 10 years amid declining volatility"

17/08/2025

Is Algorand headed for a comeback? Let's take a look:

As of now (August 2025), Algorand (ALGO) is in a complex position. Let’s break it down using a combination of technical analysis, on-chain trends, and macro/sector fundamentals to evaluate whether it's likely headed for a comeback or continued stagnation.

📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure

Long-Term Trend (Weekly Chart):

Still in a macro downtrend since its 2021 highs.

It hit lows around $0.07–$0.09 and has recently shown some base-forming behavior.

Any move toward a comeback would require:

Break of $0.15–$0.18 resistance (multi-month supply zone).

Sustained volume increases and market-wide support.

Short-Term Trend (Daily Chart):

Attempting to form a higher low.

Needs a bullish crossover of 50/200 EMA and RSI > 50 to confirm trend shift.

Currently in a low-volatility compression, which could precede a breakout—but direction unclear without volume.

📊 2. On-Chain Metrics

TVL (Total Value Locked): Still significantly down from peak—Algorand's DeFi ecosystem remains underwhelming.

Developer Activity: Has been relatively strong compared to price action, but not enough dApp traction.

Wallet Growth: Mildly positive; some increase in new wallets, but not explosive.

➡️ On-chain activity doesn’t yet reflect strong user or developer demand — a key comeback ingredient is missing.

🔍 3. Fundamentals & Sector Trends

Narrative Fit: Algorand is positioned for institutional DeFi and government use cases (e.g., CBDCs). That’s not currently “hot” in crypto compared to:

L2 scaling (Arbitrum, Optimism)

AI + blockchain (e.g., Fetch.ai, Ocean)

RWA (Real World Assets)

Competition: Facing strong competition from Solana, Avalanche, and even newer L1s and L2s.

Leadership & Governance: Algorand Foundation made structural changes to improve transparency, but no breakout catalyst yet.

📈 4. Is There a Path to a Comeback?

✅ Potential Bull Case:

A macro altcoin season could lift all boats, including ALGO.

If a large partnership or government adoption announcement happens.

Strong DeFi push or ecosystem incentive could jumpstart interest.

❌ Bear Case:

Continues to underperform if narrative stays out of favor.

Failure to regain key technical levels leads to more downside.

Developers and users move to other chains with more buzz and liquidity.

🔮Martin's Verdict (Comeback Probability)
Timeframe Likelihood of Comeback Key Conditions
Short-Term (30-90 days) ❌ Low (

17/08/2025

People programmed by technology?

Dr. Robert Epstein, a Harvard-trained psychologist, has dedicated his career to studying how technology influences human behavior. His research has raised im...

08/08/2025

What is happening with bitcoin now? Where is it going? Is this the time to invest? Will increased liquidity from new regulatory changes make it rain? Find out more:

This essay presents a fully refreshed and up-to-date outlook on bitcoin, grounded in factual analysis as of August 8, 2025. It weaves together recent price dynamics, institutional behavior, regulatory developments, geopolitical factors, and forward-looking scenarios into one coherent narrative.

08/08/2025

Today for the first time, we have interspecies communication of a sort. Scientists in the lovely Carribean have been recording the sounds of the whales for years, but Artificial Intelligence has opened the way for analysis of the patterns and features of the noise the whales make to discern basic meanings, communication behavior patterns, and they have sent the first whale sounds back to whales and have received a response. It will be interesting to see where this goes next!

Scientists have just taken a monumental leap: decoding the language of whales using artificial intelligence. But what they uncovered isn’t just fascinating, ...

30/06/2025

Bitcoin is looking good today! I am including a prospectus now most trading days when I can!

I hope you all bought the Bitcoin dip with your chips around 9:17 Eastern Standard Time after the liquidity sweep. Price dipped below recent local lows (liquidity grab), then sharply rebounded. Time on all charts is UTC.

30/06/2025

🟢 Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook

I hope you all bought the dip with your chips around 9:17 Eastern Standard Time after the liquidity sweep. Price dipped below recent local lows (liquidity grab), then sharply rebounded. This is often a strong bullish signal because it flushes out weak longs and traps shorts.

Machine Learning MA Envelope: After the sweep, price is moving back inside the upper half of the band, indicating momentum is favoring an upward push.

RSI: Your RSI was oversold at the sweep point and is now climbing. It is currently around 81, which is high but signals strong momentum. You should watch for divergence signs later today.

🟢 Context from Other Charts

S and P 500 (SPX) and VIX

SPX remains strong overall, up about 0.26 percent today.

VIX rose earlier but is stabilizing near 17. A calm or dropping VIX generally supports risk-on sentiment, which favors BTC.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is rebounding but still under resistance. If it stalls or reverses lower, it typically supports upward moves in BTC.

Gold and Oil

Gold is slightly up around 0.21 percent but overall in a downtrend recently, which could signal money moving toward risk assets.

Oil is moving sideways and does not give a strong correlation signal today.

💡 Key Intraday Levels for BTC

Immediate resistance is around $108,600 to $109,000 (recent swing highs after the sweep).

Support zone is around $107,000 (your sweep entry zone). This is a good invalidation level if price breaks down.

Extension target: If momentum continues, a possible move to $109,500 to $110,000 during the day.



⚖️ Risk Management and Plan

Your entry was well-timed after the sweep.

If day trading, watch for signs of exhaustion (RSI divergence, slowing momentum) around $108,600 to $109,000.

If Bitcoin should go over $113,000 for a strong breakout, we will be in the Banana Zone of reaching new all-time-highs. Watch like a hawk so you can sell when your overbought indicator reaches 100%.

Consider trailing stops to protect gains, for example first below $107,800 and then move higher as price rises.

Be cautious if DXY breaks above $9750 decisively since that could pressure BTC.



🏁 Summary

Bias: Bullish for the day assuming no macro shocks from DXY or equities reversal.

Targets: $108,600 to $109,500 range.

Risk trigger: Below 107,000, consider exit or reevaluate.

Find out more at:

https://www.martinlow.com/post/bitcoin-btc-outlook-for-june-30-2025

28/06/2025

✅Bitcoin daily chart (BTCUSD and Nano Futures)

* Strong move off recent lows, currently consolidating
above $107,000.
* Machine learning bands show price pressing
toward upper range resistance ($108,000–$110,000).
* RSI is strong but not yet overbought (around
mid-60s to 70s), suggesting more upside room.

*US Dollar Index (DXY)

* Continuing to trend lower, now around 97.3:
a key breakdown area.
* Weakening dollar historically supports Bitcoin
and other risk assets.

* Gold and SPX

* Gold bouncing but losing some momentum, implying
that risk-on flows may be favoring equities and crypto.
* SPX is strong, making new highs: supports "risk-on" appetite.

💡Macro Context (important)

* Ceasefire news and general risk-on sentiment (e.g., equities rally) support BTC.
* Liquidity trends (weekly BTC chart you shared earlier) still look supportive; no major tightening signals yet.

🔭 Projection to July 25

Based on technical patterns and macro backdrop:

*Short-term resistance: $110,000 (psychological and technical level).
*Breakout target zone if resistance clears: $112,500 – $115,000.
*Aggressive top target (if strong momentum + continued dollar weakness): $118,000 this is where "banana zone" (strong parabolic-type push) could begin.

🍌The Bitcoin "Banana Zone" Scenario?

* The "banana zone" typically refers to exponential moves
driven by strong momentum and FOMO.
* Right now, Bitcoin is building the base but hasn’t quite
entered "banana zone" yet.
* For that to confirm, you'd want to see:

* Break and hold above $112,500.
* Daily closes above prior range highs without
immediate rejection.
* Strong volume expansion.

If these conditions happen in the first two weeks of July (especially on a strong macro risk-on push), we could see the banana zone develop and drive price toward \$120,000+ rapidly.

🟢 As long as Bitcoin holds above $105,000 and especially $103,500 (local support), upside bias remains intact.

If targeting an extension move, you could trail stops tighter above $106,500 or use a partial take-profit approach at $110,000 and above.

✅ **Key Levels to Watch**

| Level | Importance
| ----------- | ------------------------------
| $105,000 | Short-term support
| $110,000 | Major psychological/technical resistance
| $112,500 | Acceleration "trigger" zone
| $115,000 | Aggressive bullish extension zone

⭐ Bitcoin Outlook Summary

Outlook: Bullish bias into July 25.
Near-term target: $110,000–$112,500.
Potential high target if banana zone triggers: $115,000–$118,000.
Risk: A reversal below $103,500 would flip bias.

19/06/2025

General Atomics received a $100 million contract to develop GHOST, a hybrid-electric stealth drone with ISR and strike capabilities, designed for contested environments and potentially featuring VTOL and extended range.

10/06/2025

Market Recap for Today

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin is in a strong uptrend on the daily and 4-hour charts. There was a recent surge followed by a short-term pullback on the 5-minute chart, which looks like normal cooling after a breakout. RSI is elevated but not extreme. This is still a bullish chart. Watch for a higher low on the short-term charts if you're looking to enter.

US Dollar Index (USDX)

The dollar is attempting a short-term rebound after a larger downtrend. The bounce is visible on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts but lacks strength on higher timeframes. RSI is neutral. This move could be short-lived. A weaker dollar generally supports crypto and equities.

Cardano Futures (ADAK2025)

This one is clearly weak across all timeframes. It has been trending lower, and while there’s a small bounce on the intraday chart, it looks like a bear market rally. RSI is close to oversold, but there's no sign of reversal yet. Best to stay out unless momentum shifts.

Ether Futures (ETIK2025)

Ether has started to show signs of weakness. It failed to hold support above 2,600 and is now drifting lower. The daily and 4-hour charts suggest a distribution phase. RSI is neutral but moving down. Needs Bitcoin strength to regain upside momentum.

S&P 500 Index (SPX)

The S&P is still in a strong uptrend, especially on the daily chart. The 4-hour and 5-minute charts suggest some loss of momentum. This looks like it may consolidate or pull back slightly. RSI is at a healthy level but flattening. The broader trend is still positive.

Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold appears to be rolling over. There's been a sharp drop on lower timeframes and a bearish pattern forming on the daily chart. RSI is weakening, not yet oversold. Could revisit lower support zones soon, especially if the dollar firms up.

Oil & Gas Index (OILGAS)

One of the strongest sectors right now. Clear bullish structure across all timeframes, with no sign of reversal yet. RSI is moderate, so there’s still room to climb. This could continue trending higher as long as macro tailwinds remain.