08/08/2025
The Game of Elites: Kenyaโs Political Chessboard and the Power Plays of Raila Odinga
By QMI, August 8, 2025
In Kenya, politics is often described as a high-stakes game of chess, where the political elite maneuver with calculated precision to maintain power, influence, and wealth. This โGame of Elitesโ is not merely a contest of ideas or policies but a complex interplay of alliances, betrayals, and strategic deal-making, with figures like Raila Odinga at the center of the board. As Kenya navigates a turbulent political landscape marked by economic challenges and public discontent, the moves of these elites continue to shape the nationโs future, often at the expense of the ordinary citizen.
The Elite Arena: Power and Privilege
Kenyaโs political elite, a select group of influential families, business tycoons, and career politicians, have long dominated the countryโs governance. From the Kenyatta dynasty to the Odinga family, these elites leverage ethnic loyalties, financial muscle, and strategic alliances to maintain their grip on power. The game is not about ideology but survival, with each move designed to secure political relevance or economic gain. As one analyst notes, โKenyan politics is fundamentally shaped by competition between political elites and their ethnic groups,โ a dynamic that has fueled both unity and division since independence.
The elite class operates in a world far removed from the struggles of ordinary Kenyans, who face rising inflation, unemployment, and a cost-of-living crisis. While the masses protest, as seen in the 2024 Gen Z uprising, the elite broker deals behind closed doors, ensuring their interests remain protected. This disconnect has fueled accusations of โstate capture,โ where public institutions are manipulated to serve the political survival of a few.
Raila Odinga: The Master Strategist
At the heart of this game stands Raila Odinga, a political chameleon whose career spans decades of opposition, alliances, and reinvention. The 80-year-old leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Azimio la Umoja coalition has run for president five times, each time alleging electoral fraud, yet he remains a pivotal figure in Kenyan politics. His ability to shift allegiances, from rival to ally, has earned him both admiration and criticism as a master of political survival.
Odingaโs recent moves exemplify his strategic prowess. In July 2024, as anti-government protests rocked the nation over a controversial finance bill, President William Ruto, facing the biggest crisis of his presidency, turned to his former rival. Odingaโs allies were appointed to key cabinet positions, including the powerful finance and energy ministries, marking the first time since 2008 that the opposition has served in government. This NADCO committee and โbroad-basedโ government is seen as a unifying move, but critics see it as a classic elite pact to neutralize dissent and consolidate power. As one protester remarked, โItโs just the same old deal-making among the political elite.โ
Odingaโs decision not to take a cabinet post himself has sparked speculation. Many believe he is eyeing the African Union Commission chairmanship, a role that would elevate his influence beyond Kenyaโs borders. Yet, his alignment with Ruto has divided his ODM party, with some members calling it a betrayal of Kenyans demanding systemic change. The move has also drawn ire from younger generations, who view Odingaโs support for Rutoโs scandal-plagued administration, particularly his defense of controversial deals like the Adani Groupโs bid for Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, as a sign of complicity in elite opportunism.
The Historical Playbook
Odingaโs maneuvers are not new; they are part of a long tradition of elite pacts in Kenya. The 2008 Grand Coalition with President Mwai Kibaki, brokered after post-election violence, saw Odinga serve as Prime Minister, a role that cemented his influence but also highlighted his willingness to compromise for power. Similarly, his 2018 โhandshakeโ with Uhuru Kenyatta birthed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), an attempt to rewrite Kenyaโs political structure to accommodate elite interests. Critics argue that BBI was less about national unity and more about ensuring the largest ethnic communities retained executive power.
These pacts reveal a recurring pattern: when crises threaten stability, Kenyaโs elites close ranks, sidelining ideological differences to protect their shared interests. The 2024 pact with Ruto is no exception, with Odinga and Ruto framing it as a way to โease tensionโ and involve the opposition in policy-making. Yet, as political analyst Nanjala Nyabola posted on X, โSo basically thereโs no opposition party in parliament in Kenya?โ, a sentiment echoing the frustration of those who see this as the silencing of dissent.
The Cost of the Game
The Game of Elites comes at a steep cost. Protesters, particularly the Gen Z movement, have rejected these deals, demanding an end to corruption, police brutality, and the dominance of entrenched elites. The 2024 protests, sparked by tax hikes and economic hardship, saw parliament stormed and lives lost, underscoring the growing divide between the elite and the masses. Rutoโs campaign promise of economic opportunities for the youth has faltered, and his alliance with Odinga is seen by many as a desperate move to cling to power.
Moreover, the eliteโs reliance on ethnic mobilization and financial muscle, evident in Odingaโs 2017 fundraising dinners targeting billions for his campaign, deepens societal divisions. Critics, including the Communist Party Marxist-Kenya, accuse Odinga of betraying revolutionary ideals, aligning with imperialist interests, and serving as a โservant of the status quo.โ His defense of allies like Opiyo Wandayi, who signed a Sh96 billion energy deal, has further fueled perceptions of cronyism.
A Game Without End?
As Kenya looks toward the 2027 elections, the Game of Elites shows no signs of abating. Odingaโs alliance with Ruto may secure short-term stability, but it risks alienating his base and the youth, who demand a break from the past. The impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua in October 2024, backed by Odingaโs MPs, further illustrates the fluidity of alliances in Kenyan politics. Yet, as history shows, these pacts are fragile, often collapsing under the weight of ambition and betrayal.
For ordinary Kenyans, the question remains: will the Game of Elites ever yield to a system prioritizing the common good? As long as power remains concentrated among a few, the chessboard will continue to be dominated by masters like Raila Odinga, whose moves, while brilliant, often leave the masses as pawns in a game they cannot win.
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