23/09/2025
OPINION: Baringo UDA Primaries Expose Cracks that Could Reshape Rift Valley Politics
By Correspondent
The just concluded UDA Party Senatorial primaries in Baringo have laid bare simmering divisions within the ruling party. While Vincent Kiprono Chemitei emerged victorious, his thanksgiving rallies were marked by sharp rhetoric from MPs Hon William Kamket (Tiaty) and Hon Reuben Kiborek (Mogotio), who accused some colleagues of “going missing in action - (waliingia nyasi)” during the campaigns — vowing that such leaders should be politically deserted in 2027.
This public show of disunity has opened the floodgates for opposition forces to exploit. As late as Monday afternoon, Wycliffe Kipsang Tobole who had a late night meeting with Hon Kiborek at a Nakuru hotel, released a statement faulting the party's electronic voting saying they were prone to manipulation and the results do not reflect the will of the people. On his next political move, it remains a wait-and-see.
With KANU chairman and former senator Gideon Moi expected to enter the November 27 by-election, the race may well become a litmus test not just for Baringo but for President William Ruto’s political machinery in his own Rift Valley backyard.
Should Gideon Moi reclaim the Senate seat, the symbolic victory would reverberate far beyond Baringo: “KANU beats Ruto in Baringo” would become the headline on the mainstream media — a potential mock referendum on Ruto’s presidency amid growing “one-term” narratives ahead of 2027. Such an outcome would embolden opposition leaders across the country, creating a broader platform to challenge UDA’s dominance.
In this context, UDA may feel pressured to ensure a Chemitei victory 'at all costs'. That path, however, risks noisy, divisive campaigns that could dent the credibility of the newly reconstituted electoral body - IEBC in its first major test. If IEBC’s impartiality is questioned now, its ability to deliver a free and fair general election in 2027 would be seriously undermined.
President Ruto therefore finds himself in a political Catch-22 situation. Does he allow (perceived) regional Kingpins — Interior CS Hon. Kipchumba Murkomen and Senate Majority Leader and Kericho Senator Hon. Aaron Cheruiyot — to wrestle for control of Baringo in the name of 2032 succession politics, or does he stamp his authority by reigning in the youthful MPs before their rivalries fracture the Rift Valley voting bloc?
History teaches us that self-preservation is the strongest instinct of any political leader. For Ruto, one pragmatic option looms: striking a deal with Gideon Moi. Moi’s KANU, though diminished, still boasts an extensive political network of veteran politicians, MPs, and MCAs across Rift Valley and beyond. By co-opting Moi, Ruto could neutralize kingpin politics and consolidate his home base ahead of the tougher national battles of 2027.
As Hon. Bishop Emeritus Jackson Kosgei aptly observed in October 2023, succession politics are a double-edged sword: they weaken regimes internally, embolden the opposition, and in the worst cases, expose emerging leaders to fatal risks — the tragic fates of Tom Mboya and JM Kariuki during Kenyatta’s era stand as cautionary tales.
The Baringo Senate by-election, then, is more than a local contest. It is the opening chapter in a high-stakes struggle over the future of Rift Valley politics — and by extension, the political survival of President William Ruto himself.
Via The Ruling Class
