27/08/2026
THE PULA’S REAL TEST IS BOTSWANA’S ABILITY TO PRODUCE
Bank of Botswana Governor Lesego Caster Moseki says currency resilience ultimately depends on a stronger productive base and Botswana’s ability to generate foreign exchange through exports.
Botswana’s debate over the p**a may need to move beyond the question of whether the currency is too strong or too weak. Speaking at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) media briefing, Bank of Botswana Governor Lesego Caster Moseki said the more fundamental issue is the country’s ability to produce competitively, export and generate the foreign exchange needed to support the economy.
His remarks came as the central bank kept the policy rate at 5.5%, with inflation still well above its medium-term target and economic growth remaining subdued.
Botswana’s real GDP grew by just 0.2% in the 12 months to March 2026, an improvement from the 1.6% contraction recorded over the previous year. The recovery was supported by a slower contraction in mining and some improvement in non-mining sectors, including manufacturing and agriculture.
However, Moseki said the economy remains constrained by weak global conditions, structural changes in international diamond markets, slow economic transformation and low productivity.
The pressure is particularly significant for Botswana because of its dependence on imports and the concentration of its export earnings.
“The strength of the p**a is anchored on capability to earn foreign exchange through exports by local producers,” Moseki said.
The comment shifts the currency debate towards a broader question of competitiveness. While businesses continue to identify the exchange rate as a challenge, particularly given Botswana’s high import dependence, the Governor said exchange-rate policy must also support domestic production and exports.
“In an economy that needs to increase production, diversify, and generate employment opportunities,” he said, a framework that promotes the international price competitiveness of local producers is desirable.
For Botswana, that means the long-term currency question is inseparable from the country’s ability to build a broader export base.
The challenge is becoming more pressing as the diamond industry faces structural changes in international markets. The government’s 2026 growth projection of 3.1% assumes a recovery in mining and sustained growth in non-mining sectors, supported by economic diversification initiatives under National Development Plan 12 and the Botswana Economic Transformation Programme.
Moseki cautioned that delays in implementing the transformation programme could slow the recovery and leave actual growth below projections.
Inflation remains another constraint.
Headline inflation declined from 10.7% in June to 9.4% in July 2026, helped by the downward adjustment in domestic fuel prices. It nevertheless remains substantially above the Bank’s 3% to 6% medium-term objective.
The MPC expects inflation to remain above the target range into the first quarter of 2027, with fuel prices, higher electricity tariffs and related cost pressures among the key domestic risks. Food prices could also face pressure from livestock movement restrictions and disease-related disruptions, while elevated international energy and fertiliser prices remain a concern.
Against that backdrop, the MPC unanimously maintained the Bank Rate at 5.5%.
The decision reflects the central bank’s balancing act: supporting an economy that remains weak without allowing inflationary pressures to become entrenched.
But monetary policy has limits.
Interest rates and exchange-rate management can influence economic conditions, but they cannot by themselves create factories, competitive farms, export businesses or new sources of foreign exchange.
That is where the Governor’s message becomes more consequential for the private sector.
Botswana needs to produce more of what it consumes, develop industries capable of competing in regional and international markets and extract greater value from its natural and human resources.
Moseki also pointed to the role of consumption choices. The balance between imported and locally produced goods and services, he said, is critical to the viability of domestic producers and service providers.
The objective is not simply to reduce imports. It is to build an economy capable of earning enough foreign exchange to finance necessary imports while expanding domestic production and employment.
For businesses, this presents both a challenge and an opportunity.
Agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, technology, financial services and mining-related value chains all have potential to contribute to a more diversified export base if supported by investment, productivity improvements and a competitive operating environment.
Botswana’s economic resilience will therefore depend on what happens beyond the MPC meeting room.
The central bank can manage monetary conditions. Government can set the policy framework. But businesses ultimately have to produce and compete.
As Moseki put it, the strength of the p**a is anchored in Botswana’s ability to earn foreign exchange through its own producers.
The currency debate, therefore, may be less about how Botswana manages the p**a and more about what Botswana produces for the world.