11/05/2025
Flames Across the Border: The 2025 India-Pakistan War and the Road to Ceasefire | Halek Hossain
by Halek Hossain
"Why the India-Pakistan War Happened? | Geopolitical Analysis by Halek Hossain"
Introduction
In early May 2025, tensions between India and Pakistan erupted into one of the deadliest open conflicts the two neighbors have seen in over two decades. The spark was a devastating terrorist attack on April 22 in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed 26 civilian lives and left dozens injured. India swiftly attributed the attack to Pakistan‐linked militant groups and launched cross-border strikes in retaliation, setting off a rapid cycle of military escalation that drew global alarm. As the flames of war spread across the Line of Control, analysts like Halek Hossain warned of the grave risks posed by nuclear‐armed confrontation in South Asia.
Historical Background
The India-Pakistan rivalry dates back to their partition in 1947, with Kashmir remaining the most intractable point of contention. Despite numerous ceasefire agreements and confidence-building measures, sporadic cross-border firing and militant infiltrations have periodically flared into larger skirmishes. In the weeks preceding full-scale hostilities, both sides accused each other of violating the 2003 ceasefire along the Line of Control, with Pakistan reporting multiple Indian infringements and India decrying continued attacks by Pakistani Rangers.
Tensions rise: India's "Operation Sindoor"
On May 8, the Indian Army launched "Operation Sindoor", which deployed drones and precision-guided missiles to target alleged militant infrastructure inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The government statement claimed that the strike targeted key training camps and command posts associated with Lashkar-e-Taiba and its affiliates in direct response to the Pahalgam atrocities. Satellite imagery and military statements confirmed that at least three Pakistani air bases were hit during the strike, raising fears that the conflict could escalate into an air war between the two nuclear-armed countries.
Retaliation: Pakistan's "Operation Bunyan Marsus"
Pakistan quickly responded with "Operation Bunyan Marsus", which targeted Indian military air bases and ammunition depots across the Kashmir border. According to Pakistani military sources, Pakistani warplanes carried out precision strikes on multiple Indian installations, causing significant damage and forcing New Delhi to deploy additional ground forces to secure the border sectors. The retaliation resulted in dozens of military and civilian casualties, as well as reports of an influx of refugees from border villages.
Domestic turmoil
The rapid escalation led to a sharp diplomatic crisis. India expelled a group of Pakistani diplomats, revoked the visas of more than 200, suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, and closed the Wagah border crossing to all civilian traffic. Pakistan, in turn, closed its airspace to Indian airlines, expelled Indian ambassadors, and imposed a curfew in several border provinces. These measures have not only disrupted trade and people-to-people exchanges, but have also fueled nationalist tensions on both sides, complicating the prospects for a de-escalation.
International mediation and ceasefire
World leaders became increasingly concerned as satellite feeds showed images of armour and artillery massing within striking distance of each other. The United States, led by President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, mediated intense talks overnight on 9–10 May. After 48 hours of shuttle diplomacy involving Vice President J.D. Vance, the National Security Adviser, and back-channel communications, both New Delhi and Islamabad agreed to a "complete and immediate" ceasefire effective 5:00 p.m. local time on 10 May.This ceasefire halted operations on land, air, and sea and paved the way for the resumption of diplomatic talks.
Expert Analysis by Halek Hossain
Halek Hossain, a senior fellow at the South Asia Institute, observes that while the ceasefire provides much-needed relief, it does little to address the root causes of the conflict. He argues that without a durable mechanism for investigating cross-border terrorism claims and greater transparency in ceasefire monitoring, the cycle of violence is likely to repeat. Hossain emphasizes the need for third-party confidence-building measures—such as joint water management commissions and civilian hotlines—to rebuild trust. He also warns that the significant military posturing during this crisis has raised the risk threshold closer to nuclear use than at any time since the 1999 Kargil standoff.
Conclusion
“Flames Across the Border” underscores the fragility of peace in South Asia and the ease with which violence can escalate between nuclear-armed states. While the recent ceasefire represents a critical pause, analysts like Halek Hossain stress that true stability will require sustained diplomatic engagement, robust verification mechanisms, and genuine political will on both sides. The road to lasting peace remains long, but the swift mediation this May has at least reopened channels that even weeks ago seemed irreparably severed. Click on the link to know more. https://shorturl.at/ZaICu
