28/09/2022
Ahead of the 2023 general elections, a survey has been conducted by the We2Geda Foundation, sampling registered voters to deepen conversation around the polls, candidate preferences, and key socioeconomic dynamics.
The We2Geda Foundation surveyed 15,438 eligible voters in the 36 states and the FCT, randomising direct phone calls in local languages for real representation.
The result showed a clear lead for the Labour Party (LP) presidential flag-bearer, Peter Obi, with 51 per cent voting for him as their preferred candidate if the presidential election is held today. Twenty-five per cent went to Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), while Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) ranked third with 19 per cent.
Further analysis indicates that Obi remains a consistent favourite in the four major geopolitical zones, including North-Central, South-South, South-West and South-East, while Atiku was the poll leader in the North-East and the North-West zones.
While these poll results show some significant trends, it is important to note that they do not include respondents, who were undecided or did not reveal their preferred candidates. This group constitutes about one-third of the Nigerians We2Geda attempted to sample.
These swing voters could ultimately decide which candidate could emerge as Nigeria’s president next year. All responses were independent and based on the respondents’ will.
Respondents from across Nigeria’s 774 councils were stratified proportionally by key demographics like rural versus urban and gender against age.
The ratio, the investigator noted, is consistent with the voter register published by the Independent National Electoral Commission. For instance, as Abia makes up 2.3 per cent of the national voter register, it also made up 2.3 per cent of respondents in the randomised poll. The same process applied in every state, with 100 per cent randomisation.
Nigerians were asked structured questions to assess their opin