15/07/2025
*Tracing Nigeria’s Economic Downturn Through Four Presidencies*
*By Nonso Ezechi*
1. Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007): Foundation of Stability
Key Moves: Appointed technocrats (Okonjo-Iweala, Soludo), negotiated $30bn debt relief with Paris Club, created Excess Crude Account (ECA), bank recapitalization, maintained stable exchange rate and FX reserves.
Economic Indicators: Reserves grew from $4bn to $43bn, external debt reduced, poverty rate declined.
Impact: Strong economic foundation with rising investor confidence and credible institutions. Obasanjo left a stable, reform-oriented economy.
2. Goodluck Jonathan (2010–2015): Missed Opportunities Amid Oil Boom
Key Moves: Reappointed Okonjo-Iweala, privatized power sector, launched SURE-P, supported agriculture and SMEs.
Challenges: Failed to diversify economy; relied heavily on oil (90% FX, 70% revenue). Fuel subsidy fraud increased, ECA drained from $20bn (2007) to $2bn (2015).
Economic Indicators: Naira fell from ₦150 to ₦195; rising corruption, insecurity (Boko Haram), and oil price crash (2014) exposed vulnerabilities.
Impact: Economic cracks deepened; Jonathan’s administration lost global and domestic confidence.
3. Muhammadu Buhari (2015–2023): Collapse of Economic Fundamentals
Key Moves: Delayed forming economic team, introduced multiple exchange rates, borrowed excessively, reinstated subsidy.
Catastrophic Policies: CBN printed money (Ways & Means), inflation spiked, naira crashed (₦197 → ₦750), food prices soared, unemployment hit over 40%.
Economic Indicators: Debt ballooned from ₦12trn to ₦77trn+, poverty rate hit 60%+, FX reserves overstated.
Impact: Buhari’s rigid, mismanaged policies triggered two recessions and caused the real collapse of Nigeria’s economy.
4. Bola Ahmed Tinubu (2023–Present): Painful Reforms, Hope for Recovery
Inherited Crisis: Empty treasury, massive debt, subsidy liabilities, broken FX regime.
Policy Moves: Removed fuel subsidy, unified exchange rate, floated naira, began debt restructuring.
Consequences: Inflation spiked, petrol rose to ₦600+/L, food inflation near 40%, hardship worsened.
Outlook: Reforms necessary but painful. Tinubu didn’t cause the crash; he is managing the fallout. His legacy will depend on how he manages the savings from subsidy removal.
Conclusion:
> Nigeria’s economy began unraveling under Jonathan, collapsed under Buhari, and undergoing emergency reforms under Tinubu. Obasanjo laid a solid foundation, but successive policy missteps eroded gains. Buhari’s era marked the turning point of economic collapse.
