08/09/2026
Brent rose to nearly US$95 per barrel, up 6% weekly, driven by tighter refined-products markets rather than crude shortages. Diesel crack spreads surpassed crude, US diesel hit US$5.85/gal, and distillate stocks remain low despite high refinery use.
Prices later exceeded US$99 per barrel, the highest in three months, due to Houthi attacks, US strikes on Iranian tankers, and Israeli Lebanese tensions. OPEC+ kept October quotas at 31.01 million bpd after ending a 1.65 million bpd voluntary cut, with Saudi Aramco's Arab Light discounts indicating price management. The premium lies in refined products.
We expect Nigeria to gain from higher Brent prices via increased oil revenue and foreign exchange, assuming production stays steady. However, reliance on imported refined products and rising global diesel costs increase transport, logistics, electricity, and distribution expenses, driving inflation. Analysts expect foreign exchange reserves to depend more on export earnings repatriation than on crude prices.
Investors focus on Brent above US$90, OPEC+ cuts, US-Iran relations, and US distillate data. For oil assets and Dangote Refinery at N525, attention is on production, sales, margins, crude output, lifting volumes, and their impact on fiscal revenue, forex inflows, and inflation.
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Brent rose to nearly US$95 per barrel, up 6% weekly, driven by tighter refined-products markets rather than crude shortages. Diesel crack spreads surpassed crude, US diesel hit US$5.85/gal, and distillate stocks remain low despite high refinery use.