10/07/2025
FACTS VS FICTION: WHICH POLITICIAN CAN WIN TINUBU?
By Ugwuagbo Emmanuel Chizoba
As terrible as Tinubu is in governing Nigeria, no one in Nigeria can wish away his political acumen.
He knows how to play the local and traditional politics. In the Nigerian politics as it is, Tinubu is a Maradona, even though he's a Bakayoko in Governance.
Given the choice, Tinubu would sacrifice Governance on the Alter of Politics. We've seen him do just that in Rivers State.
However, Rivers State absurdity was not really the real sacrifice. It's his policy of taking money out of the pockets of citizens, borrowing more to add to it and distribute same to Governors, who are now using it to renovate government houses and party TDB.
That brings us back to the possibility of defeating him in 2027.
While a lot of people have over concentrated on the North - South zoning issue, over analyzing the possibility of South voting for a Northern Candidate or North Voting for a Southern Candidate, an agenda set by Tinubu himself, we are not seeing the real picture.
The real picture is that there are two voting blocs, and it's not the North and South voting blocs. It's the Traditional and Revolutionary Voting blocs.
The Traditional Voting bloc consists of the normal politicians. The party men and women, the comrades--former and current student leaders and youth leaders, those people who wear colourful clothes to rallies and those who sit and wait for their political leaders to tell them whom to vote for.
This traditional bloc are the ones that have been voting massively and rigging massively for their choice candidates before 2023.
Then you have the revolutionary voting bloc. This consists of individuals who were hitherto, uninterested in the political space. They are the young people on Twitter, Facebook, TikTok and Instagram.
They are those people that used to vote in Big Brother Naija. They are the Davido, Wizkid, Burna Boy, Chelsea, Man U, Arsenal, Barca fans. They don't know who is a political leader or not. They don't understand political permutations.
They were those people that went to the streets and shouted END SARS! for two weeks consecutively.
This revolutionary voting bloc only woke up in 2022 because Buhari dealt with everyone and they believed it was time to make a change.
They only realized that their lives were difficult because Buhari was doing a bad job.
They've also analyzed the TINUBU government and concluded that TINUBU is a TERRIBLE PRESIDENT. They even held a one month Rant Challenge to express how terrible Tinubu is.
They have no leader, they don't sew uniforms, they don't go to rallies. They don't care. They're just interested on the day of the election. They will appear from nowhere and use votes to injure all the traditional voters and stakeholders, including the Tinubu owned Lagos.
Now, the Revolutionary Voting Bloc is very clear on whom they want to become President. They want Peter Obi to be the President. They are not mincing words. They have said it. They are determined and very clear that they will vote for Peter Obi in any Party he is in. They are not willing to compromise. There's no one you can use to get them. Not even Very Dark Man whom they have bashed for merely throwing up doubts.
The Traditional Voting Bloc seems to be up for grabs but if you look deeply, you'd see that the Traditional Voting bloc has been locked down by Tinubu.
Nearly every Governor in Nigeria, regardless of Party affiliation is supporting Tinubu. This means that all party structures are supporting Tinubu and will vote for him. Whether they are in the North or South.
Another point to note is that the Traditional Voting Bloc CAN BE BOUGHT by anyone who has the cash to spend.
At least, 90% of everyone in politics is in it for the money and power or connection. TINUBU has been known to be very generous.
He's the original bullion van. He can spend to win and he WILL. He can negotiate settlements and he always keeps to those agreements, the way he is standing strongly by Wike.
If TINUBU approaches those in the ADC coalition today, which he will do in days leading to the election, they will turn around and support him. He did it will Iyiola Omisore of the SDP in the Osun State Governorship election in 2018.
Omisore dumped the APC after Tinubu denied him ticket and contested in the SDP. He came third and the election was declared inconclusive. Tinubu reached out to Omisore, they negotiated and Omisore supported Gboyega Oyetola of APC and they won.
Tinubu will do the same thing with Aregbesola, Amaechi, Malami and all others in APC he once worked with. He doesn't mind giving out hundreds of millions of dollars or giving out Ministerial slots. He can and will do it because he has done it in the past.
Then begs the big question!
Can Atiku Abubakar beat Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in winning the traditional Votes?
Tinubu has more negotiating Powers than Atiku at this point.
Tinubu has more financial powers than Atiku.
Tinubu has more Governors, Senators etc than Atiku.
Tinubu can promise and fulfill the promise before the election day, Atiku can't.
Tinubu's desperation matches Atiku's desperation.
They are both Muslims.
The only thing that Atiku has behind him is the Northern Sentiments.
Tinubu can match the Northern Sentiments by promising to return power to the North in 2031, which he will.
With all metrics considered, Tinubu will always beat Atiku anytime any day. He knows how to do it, he has been doing it and he will do it again and again.
What Tinubu does not know how to confront is the Revolutionary Voting Bloc.
The same Bloc that upstaged him and won his home State, Lagos, in spite of all the voter intimidation, rigging, and suppression
The voting bloc that won the Federal Capital Territory Flawlessly!
The same Voting Bloc that made sitting Governors to lose their Senatorial Elections.
The same Voting Bloc that got 6 million post-rigging votes without a single state governor.
This is the Voting Bloc that Tinubu can't win.
This is the Voting Bloc that Peter Obi owns EXCLUSIVELY.
This is the Voting Bloc that can win Tinubu.
This is the Voting Bloc that staged the END SARS and will stage even more if anyone tries to rig them out again.
This is the Voting Bloc that Tinubu do not want to have a candidate, but this is the Voting Bloc that will take back Nigeria.
It's not a North Vs South thing.
It's the Masses Vs Leaders.
It's Crystal clear and not debatable.
A NEW NIGERIA IS POSSIBLE!
Ugwuagbo Emmanuel Chizoba is a Journalist based in Enugu.
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