28/08/2025
China Remains Absent From U.S. Soybean Market
By Farmdoc Updated on August 27, 2025
“The impasse between China and the U.S. — long its second-biggest supplier — comes as the two governments negotiate an end to the trade hostilities that have roiled commerce between the countries since Donald Trump returned to the presidency,” Gu and Couto. “American farmers have said the stalemate leaves them headed toward a financial precipice, but U.S. government data suggests that Chinese buyers are standing pat.”
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Courtesy of Bloomberg
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“China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans in March, making cargoes less competitive. The U.S. harvest typically starts in September, which marks the shift from one export season to the next. Chinese mills that crush the oilseed into animal feed will usually book ahead to take advantage of the cheaper prices and ensure their needs are met for the first few weeks or months of the crop year,” Gu and Couto reported.
“The hold-up this time seems to be the trade talks that have been extended to Nov. 10, with Beijing in no mood to give up a bargaining chip,” Gu and Couto reported. “Although Chinese commodities purchases are just one aspect of the discussions, during the first Trump administration, soybeans in particular loomed large as a way to help close what the U.S. characterized as an unfair trade deficit with China.”
“The market is highly seasonal, with American supplies dominating until the Southern Hemisphere harvest is gathered and shipments from China’s top supplier, Brazil, become available. That could in theory mean a shortage until the next wave of Brazilian beans is ready from February,” Gu and Couto reported. “The hope, of course, is that normal service will resume after Washington and Beijing strike a deal favorable to both their farming constituencies. But if that’s too tall an order, the consensus among traders and analysts is that Brazil should have enough old-crop stockpiles to cover the gap, while China could always tap its own huge reserves to meet its needs.”