17/10/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Tropical Storm (FENGSHEN)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 18 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 AM today.
RAMIL INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM.
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at 305 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (13.1°N, 126.8°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa
Present Movement:
Westward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 400 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.2
Wind threat:Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Tinambac, Siruma, Goa, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Presentacion)
TCWS No.1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, the eastern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Angat), the eastern portion of Tarlac (Camiling, San Clemente, Santa Ignacia, Paniqui, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Ramos, Pura, Victoria, City of Tarlac, La Paz, Concepcion, Gerona), the eastern portion of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba), the northern and eastern portions of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Unisan, Gumaca, Plaridel, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Mauban, Calauag, Guinayangan, Lopez, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, San Narciso, Buenavista, San Francisco, San Andres, Mulanay, General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Sampaloc) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, and Ticao Island
Visayas:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Policarpo, Arteche, Oras, Dolores, Maslog, Jipapad, Taft, Can-Avid), the northern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, San Jose de Buan, Calbayog City, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Pagsanghan, San Jorge)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 5 issued at 5:00 AM yesterday for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone RAMIL.
Link: tinyurl.com/wxadvisory
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The possibility of reaching severe tropical storm category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is Wind Signal No. 3.
Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Cagayan Valley, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, and Masbate
• Tomorrow (19 October): CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, and Eastern Samar
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar (Western Samar), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, and Bataan. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
Link: tinyurl.com/storm-surge-warning
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 1 issued at 5:00 AM today.
Link: tinyurl.com/gale-warning
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.5 m: The northern and eastern seaboard of Catanduanes; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Camarines Norte; the eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Isabela; the eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The northeastern seaboard of Aurora; the eastern seaboard of Babuyan Islands
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes; the rest of Aurora; the remaining seaboards of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands and Polillo Islands; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Northern Samar.
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of La Union; the western seaboards of Pangasinan and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of the Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Surigao del Sur, and the rest of mainland Quezon
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• RAMIL is forecast to move generally west northwestward towards the area of Central-Southern Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of RAMIL may make landfall or pass close to Catanduanes this afternoon or evening. Afterwards, it will continue moving west northwestward passing close to Vinzons, Camarines Norte and Polillo Islands tomorrow (19 October) morning. By tomorrow morning or afternoon, RAMIL will turn northwestward and may make another landfall over Aurora or Isabela After landfall, RAMIL may traverse the rugged terrain of Northern and Central Luzon and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow afternoon or evening. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday (20 October) morning.
• A northward or southward shift of the track could result to another landfall area.
• RAMIL may further intensify while moving over the Philippine Sea. Intensification into a severe tropical storm prior to landfall is not ruled out. While traversing the landmass, RAMIL may maintain its strength or slightly weaken and further intensification is likely as it traverses the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/RamilPH
