26/07/2026
This is a dangerous system. Possible hazards include damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge, rough seas, mudslides, and flash flooding.
Genevieve continues to rapidly intensify today (26 July). A symmetric and warm eye has cleared out over the past few hours, and is surrounded by very cold cloud tops. A partial Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass that became available after the previous advisory showed a contracting RMW with peak winds of 120 mph (103 knots), supporting previous evidence of rapid strengthening. The 18:00 UTC subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T6.0/115 knots, and objective intensity estimates range from 115–122 knots. Thus, the initial intensity has been set to 140 mph (120 knots) for this advisory.
The major hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/12 knots, along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. Genevieve is forecast to continue on a northwestward to west-northwestward motion and slow down over the next several days as the ridge moves eastward. The latest NHC official forecast lies very close to the previous forecast, and remains within the tightly clustered ensemble model track data.
Genevieve is expected to strengthen further over the next 12–24 hours as it remains over very warm sea surface temperatures around 30°C, low vertical wind shear and strong upper-level divergence. SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance and DTOPS continue to show the potential for additional rapid intensification in the short-term, and the latest NHC official intensity guidance remains near the top of the intensity model guidance and close to the HCCA corrected consensus aid. However, it is still possible that the peak intensity forecast of 150 mph (130 knots) is conservative, given the favorable environment. By midweek, Genevieve will begin to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures, slightly drier mid-level conditions and a more stable environment, supporting steady weakening. Genevieve is now forecast to weaken below hurricane intensity at day 5.
Forecaster Adams/Papin. Advisory Number 10. Information provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
