24/07/2023
weather update as of July 24, 2023 7:52 PM PST
Typhoon "Egay"
Issued at 05:00 pm, 24 July 2023
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 PM today)
TYPHOON EGAY STEADILY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon
· 50-100 mm: Cagayan, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, and Sorsogon
Forecast accumulated rainfall tomorrow afternoon to Wednesday afternoon
· Above 200 mm: Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, and the northern portion of La Union
· 100-200 mm: the northern and eastern portion of Isabela, the rest of La Union, Mt. Province, Benguet, and the western portion of Pangasinan
· 50-100 mm: the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of Pangasinan, and Zambales
Forecast accumulated rainfall on Wednesday afternoon to Thursday evening
· Above 200 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northwestern portion of Abra
· 100-200 mm: The northern portion of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, the rest of Abra, and Ilocos Sur,
· 50-100 mm: The rest of mainland Cagayan, Kalinga, the western portion of Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, and Pangasinan.
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are highly likely especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, EGAY may also enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing occasional to monsoon rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #4 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 PM today.
Severe Winds
Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 are in effect. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Current forecast scenario shows that the highest wind signal that may be hoisted will be Wind Signal No. 4 or 5 (e.g., typhoon-force wind threat).
EGAY and the enhanced Southwest Monsoon may also bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
· Today: The rest of Visayas and MIMAROPA, and the northern portions of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, and Caraga.
· Tomorrow: The rest of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and the northern portion of Northern Mindanao and Dinagat Islands.
· Wednesday: Visayas and the rest of Luzon.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 3.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Isabela. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #2 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of EGAY, a Gale Warning is in effect over several coastal waters along the seaboards of Northern and Southern Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, seaboards of Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts. For larger vessels, operating in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. Mariners without proper experience or operating ill-equipped vessels are advised to remain in port or seek safe harbor. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #4 issued at 5:00 PM today.
In the next 24 hours, EGAY may also bring moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the coastal waters outside the Gale Warning area along the western and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing over these waters. If inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels, avoid navigating in these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
EGAY is forecast to track north northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning generally northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait. On the track forecast, this typhoon is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between tomorrow late evening and Wednesday morning. Typhoon EGAY may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday as it moves over the waters southwest of Taiwan. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will cross the Taiwan Strait and make landfall over Fujian, China on late Thursday or early Friday.
It must be emphasized that further shift in the track forecast closer to Luzon remains a possibility due to the persistence of the ridge of high pressure north of the typhoon. This is represented by the forecast confidence cone. As such, a landfall over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan is not ruled out.
EGAY is forecast to continue intensifying and reach super typhoon category by late tomorrow or on early Wednesday. However, should the track forecast shift closer to the landmass of Luzon, the typhoon may peak at an intensity just below STY threshold. Nevertheless, EGAY is forecast to become a very strong typhoon. A weakening trend may begin by Wednesday afternoon or evening as it enters the cooler waters southwest and west of Taiwan (i.e., Taiwan Strait).
