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03/07/2025

ETHUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 07/03/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): The Daily timeframe indicates a strong bearish market structure shift (MSS) below significant swing lows (around $2879). However, a recent aggressive bullish 4-hour market structure shift suggests a potential short-term reversal or a strong reaction from a deeper daily demand zone. The HTF is currently in a state of transition/uncertainty, with recent bullish momentum challenging the prior bearish order flow.

* Confidence Level: Medium (The MTF bullish structure is strong, but it's currently a counter-trend move within the broader HTF bearish structure. Prudent risk management and precise LTF confirmation are essential.)
* Position: Long
* Recommended Leverage: Max 20x (Emphasize strict risk management due to the mixed HTF bias and potential for continued volatility. Only risk a small percentage of capital per trade.)
* Entry Zone Target: Anticipating entry upon a deep pullback into the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $2495.03 and $2502.85. Optimal entry at the mean threshold of this FVG around $2498.00.
* Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $2485.00 (This SL is positioned just below the 4-hour FVG, providing a tight yet logical invalidation point assuming a confirmed LTF entry model. A break below this would suggest further downside targeting the 4-hour Order Block below.)
* Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $2607.00 (Targeting the high of the recent 4-hour bullish impulse that caused the MTF BOS.)
* Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $2650.00 (Targeting further liquidity/resistance, potentially previous 4-hour supply or a mid-point within the larger daily bearish range. Partial profits should be taken at TP1 to reduce risk.)

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
* Entry is focused on the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $2495.03 and $2502.85. This FVG was left behind by the significant 4-hour bullish displacement (the candle opening at $2498.82 and closing at $2604.73) that caused the Market Structure Shift (MSS).
* This POI is considered high-probability because it represents a price inefficiency that price often revisits, and it is located within the discount range of the recent 4-hour bullish leg.
* Entry Confirmation: Wait for price to precisely tap into the 4-hour FVG. On the 15-minute timeframe, observe a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) to the upside, accompanied by strong bullish displacement. Entry will be on the return to the new 15-minute Order Block or FVG created by this displacement, or after a sweep of a short-term low on the 15m immediately preceding the MSS.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
* The Daily chart previously showed a strong bearish order flow, breaking previous swing lows from highs around $2879 down to lows near $2367. This established a bearish overarching bias on the highest timeframe.
* However, on the Medium Timeframe (4-hour), price recently displayed a clear bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS), aggressively breaking the prior 4-hour swing high at $2500.80. This indicates a potential internal structural reversal or a strong reaction to a significant demand zone on a higher timeframe. The current price action (last 4h candle at $2566.62) is showing a retracement from this recent 4h high.
* The current retracement on the 4-hour (and the ongoing bearish micro-structure on the 15-minute timeframe, with the latest low at $2563.99) is likely targeting internal liquidity to rebalance price before a potential continuation of the established 4-hour bullish move.
* The trade aims to capitalize on this renewed 4-hour bullish momentum after a retracement to a key inefficiency (FVG), with targets set at the recent 4-hour high (representing buy-side liquidity) and a higher structural level.
* The prior sweep of sell-side liquidity below lows around $2373.00 (before the major 4-hour bullish displacement) provided the necessary fuel for the subsequent rally.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Leveraged trading is highly risky and can result in significant losses. Always conduct your own research and trade within your risk tolerance.

03/07/2025

SUIUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 07/03/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bullish (short-term from reaction off daily lows, within a broader deep retracement). The daily chart shows a strong bullish rejection from the $2.6485 low, indicating a potential market structure shift to the upside for the immediate future. Price is currently consolidating after an initial impulse.

- Confidence Level: Medium-High (Clear 4h BOS and identifiable 4h POI, but waiting for price to reach optimal entry and for LTF confirmation adds a layer of patience.)
- Position: Long (Pending Entry)
- Recommended Leverage: 10x-20x (Use cautiously, adjust based on your personal risk management and confirmation strength.)
- Entry Zone Target: Targeting entry within the 4h Fair Value Gap (FVG) and the upper part of the 4h Bullish Order Block. The ideal entry range is between $2.7742 and $2.8202, with a high probability area around the FVG's mean threshold at $2.7972.
- Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $2.7200 (Placed logically below the 4h Bullish Order Block low at $2.7247 to invalidate the bullish structure if price breaks below this key demand zone.)
- Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $2.9600 (Targeting the recent 4h high at $2.9615, which represented a liquidity sweep, expecting a retest or clear break of this level.)
- Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $3.0800 (Targeting the unmitigated 4h Bearish Order Block/FVG around this level from the larger HTF bearish move, or the overall HTF equilibrium point if the bounce gains significant momentum.)

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- Entry is focused on the **4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located between $2.7742 and $2.8202**. This FVG was created by the strong bullish displacement that broke structure on the 4h timeframe, following the liquidity sweep of the daily low. This zone represents an area where institutional buying is expected to re-engage.
- The significance of this POI is that it is the primary imbalance left behind by the impulsive move that validated the short-term bullish order flow. It aligns with the continuation of the bounce from the HTF low.
- Anticipated LTF entry confirmation will be a **15m bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH)**. Specifically, we will wait for price to fully enter the 4h FVG (ideally reaching its mean threshold at $2.7972 or deeper). Once price is within this zone, we will look for a sweep of any immediate 15m sell-side liquidity, followed by a strong bullish displacement on the 15m chart that breaks a short-term 15m swing high. The precise entry will be on the return to the newly formed 15m Order Block or FVG created by that displacement. Confirmation on LTF should ideally show a surge in buy volume.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- The High Timeframe (1D) indicates a significant bullish bounce initiated from the $2.6485 low, marked by a strong bullish daily candle. This suggests a potential reversal or continuation of a larger bullish trend from a deeper retracement.
- On the Medium Timeframe (4H), this bullish momentum is confirmed by a clear Break of Structure (BOS) above previous highs, establishing a bullish order flow. Price recently swept the high at $2.9615 (internal range liquidity/inducement) and is currently in a retracement phase. This pullback is anticipated to draw liquidity into the identified 4h FVG and potentially the underlying 4h Order Block before the bullish trend resumes.
- The trade aims to capitalize on the continuation of the bullish move from the 4h POI, targeting the liquidity resting above the recent swing high at $2.9615 and potentially higher.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Leveraged trading is highly risky and can result in significant losses. Always conduct your own research and trade within your risk tolerance.

25/06/2025

24/06/2025

ADAUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/24/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): The Daily timeframe exhibits a prevailing bearish structure, marked by recent breaks below significant swing lows. However, the most recent price action on the Daily and especially the 4-hour chart indicates a strong bullish reaction and potential retracement within this larger downtrend.

- Confidence Level: Medium
- Position: Long
- Recommended Leverage: 10x - Max 20x (Use judiciously, respecting volatility and capital.)
- Entry Zone Target: Targeting entry within the 15m Bullish Order Block and associated Fair Value Gap (FVG) located between $0.5377 and $0.5415. This zone represents the origin of the recent strong bullish displacement.
- Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $0.5350 (Placed below the low of the 15m Order Block, invalidating the short-term bullish structure).
- Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $0.5900 (Targeting buy-side liquidity resting above recent local highs).
- Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $0.6050 (Targeting a higher level of buy-side liquidity and potential fill of a 4-hour inefficiency).

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- The primary POI for this trade is the 15-minute Bullish Order Block/FVG zone identified between $0.5377 and $0.5415. This zone is derived from the impulsive bullish candle(s) that initiated the recent significant upward move on both the 15m and 4h timeframes, showing clear displacement.
- This POI is considered high-probability for a retracement entry because it is the origin of a move that caused a clear shift in short-term market structure (CHoCH/BOS) on the MTF/LTF and is potentially in a discounted area relative to the recent low established on the Daily chart. It represents an area where Smart Money likely accumulated long positions. * Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- The High-Timeframe (Daily) structure is predominantly bearish, characterized by lower lows and lower highs over an extended period, including recent breaks below key support levels. Price is currently in what appears to be a strong retracement phase within this larger bearish trend.
- The Medium-Timeframe (4h) confirms this recent bullish momentum within the daily pullback, showing a clear impulsive move upward from around the $0.54 area, breaking minor swing highs and indicating a short-term shift to bullish order flow.
- The Low-Timeframe (15m) provides the refinement, pinpointing the specific Order Block and FVG that served as the launchpad for this bullish impulse. Price is expected to pullback to sweep any engineered liquidity just above or near the top of this demand zone (inducement) before tapping into the core POI. The trade aims to capture the next wave of buying pressure targeting the buy-side liquidity resting above the highs created during the recent MTF/LTF rally (e.g., around $0.59 - $0.60+).
- No specific order flow data or sentiment data was provided for this analysis.

23/06/2025

XRPUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/23/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bearish - The Daily chart indicates a strong bearish trend confirmed by consecutive breaks below significant structural lows and a failure of prior demand zones to initiate sustained upward moves. Price is currently showing signs of potential short-term consolidation near recent lows within this bearish trend.

- Confidence Level: Medium-High
- Position: Short (Awaiting pullback for entry confirmation)
- Recommended Leverage: 10x - Max 20x (Maintain disciplined risk management)
- Entry Zone Target: Targeting entry within the 4h Bearish Order Block (Supply Zone) located between $2.1371 - $2.1405 upon receiving a valid Low Timeframe (15m) confirmation trigger.
- Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $2.1455 (Strategically placed just above the significant 4h Swing High at $2.1450 that immediately preceded the strong bearish displacement. A move above this level would likely invalidate the current bearish structure).
- Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $1.9083 (Targeting the recent major 4h swing low, which represents a key level of sell-side liquidity).
- Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $1.7711 (A more ambitious target, aiming for the low of the significant Daily sweep wick, representing a major pool of long-term sell-side liquidity).

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- The primary Point of Interest (POI) for a potential short entry is the 4-hour Bearish Order Block ($2.1371 - $2.1405). This specific OB corresponds to the body of the 4h candle (Open 2.1371, Close 2.1168) which initiated the significant downside price movement that broke previous 4h structure. This OB is situated within a wider 4h Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) or imbalance, formed between the High ($2.1450) of the preceding candle and the Low ($2.1086) of the current candle. This zone represents an area where institutional selling pressure likely entered the market, leaving an inefficiency (FVG) and an unmitigated supply block.
- Entry will not be automatic upon reaching the POI. Price must first trade up into the 4h OB ($2.1371 - $2.1405). The trigger for entry will be based on Low Timeframe (15m) price action within or after tapping this zone. We will specifically look for a potential sweep of short-term 15m highs (acting as inducement) inside the POI, followed by a clear displacement to the downside, resulting in a 15m Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) to the downside by breaking below a recent 15m swing low. The precise entry will then target a return (pullback) to a refined 15m Order Block or Fair Value Gap created by this powerful displacement move.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- On the High Timeframe (Daily), the overall structure is bearish, characterized by lower highs and lower lows following a failed bullish attempt after sweeping a major low. The current price action is a continuation of this bearish order flow.
- The Medium Timeframe (4h) reinforces the bearish bias with a recent clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) and subsequent Break of Structure (BOS) below intermediate lows around the $2.1328 area, signaling bearish intent.
- The proposed short trade setup is positioned to enter during a likely retracement phase, anticipating a move higher into the identified 4h supply zone (OB/FVG) where Smart Money is expected to add or initiate short positions.
- The primary targets for the downside move are established pools of sell-side liquidity: the recent 4h swing low at $1.9083 and the major Daily low sweep wick at $1.7711. These levels represent areas where stop losses of prior long positions are likely clustered, providing fuel for the bearish expansion.

23/06/2025

SUIUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/23/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bearish. The Daily chart shows a prevailing bearish trend, marked by significant structural breaks to the downside over recent periods. Price has recently experienced a deep retracement after sweeping deep lows around $2.05. The current price action is interpreted as a potential rally within this larger bearish structure, targeting higher premium arrays before potentially resuming the downtrend.

- Confidence Level: Medium
- Position: Short (Awaiting entry confirmation)
- Recommended Leverage: 10x - Max 20x (Exercise caution due to needing specific LTF confirmation)
- Entry Zone Target: Targeting the 4h/15m Bearish Point of Interest (POI) approximately in the $2.5544 - $2.5687 range. Entry is **strictly contingent** upon a confirmed 15m bearish market structure shift (MSS) / Change of Character (CHoCH) occurring once price reaches this zone.
- Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $2.5750. This level is placed logically above the high of the identified 15m Order Block and above the potential swing high that would invalidate the anticipated bearish entry confirmation structure.
- Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $2.3000. Targeting the sell-side liquidity resting just below the recent MTF swing low around $2.2937.
- Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $2.1000. Targeting deeper HTF sell-side liquidity located above the significant daily low at $2.0577.

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- POI: The primary area of interest for a short entry is the 15-minute Bearish Order Block (OB) identified between $2.5544 and $2.5687. This 15m OB resides within a significant 4-hour supply zone and the premium of the recent 4h bearish swing leg.
- Significance: This POI is considered high-probability as it's the origin of a strong downward displacement that led to a break in lower timeframe structure, is positioned in a Premium zone, and aligns with the expectation of institutional selling pressure entering the market at these higher prices as part of the larger HTF bearish narrative.
- Anticipated LTF Entry Confirmation: As price rallies and enters the $2.5544 - $2.5687 zone, traders should actively monitor the 15-minute chart for a bearish entry pattern. This involves observing a sweep of local buy-side liquidity into or just above the OB, followed by a clear, impulsive bearish displacement (strong down candle(s)) that breaks below the most recent 15m swing low (a bearish MSS/CHoCH). Entry would be planned on the subsequent pullback into the newly formed 15m bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) or Order Block (OB) created by this displacement. Look for validating volume during the displacement.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- HTF (Daily): The dominant market structure remains bearish, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows. However, the recent price action represents a substantial upward correction after tapping into significant demand or sweeping deep liquidity below the $2.05 level.
- MTF (4h): The 4-hour chart confirms the recent bullish momentum from the lows, potentially indicating a temporary shift in internal structure or a strong retracement. Price has swept short-term sell-side liquidity below the swing lows at $2.34 and $2.29. The current rally is likely heading towards filling imbalances and mitigating bearish POIs in the upper portion (Premium) of the larger 4h bearish leg.
- Liquidity Targets: The intended short trade aims to capture profits by targeting the layered sell-side liquidity resting below the recent MTF swing lows around $2.3443 and $2.2937. Success in breaking these levels could see price continue its decline towards the significant HTF liquidity pool below the daily low at $2.0577. The entry itself seeks to utilize engineered buy-side liquidity above the identified 15m OB if price performs a liquidity sweep upon reaching the POI.

22/06/2025

BTCUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/22/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bearish - Recent price action on the Daily and 4h charts shows a significant impulsive move down, breaking below recent lows and indicating a potential shift or deep correction from the prior bullish structure. Price is currently undergoing a retracement within this bearish leg.

* Confidence Level: High
* Position: Short
* Recommended Leverage: Max 20x (Ensure proper risk management based on position size and stop loss)
* Entry Zone Target: Targeting the 4h Bearish Point of Interest (POI) around $106399 - $106480. Entry will be based on Low Timeframe (LTF) confirmation within this zone.
* Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $106550 (Placed just above the high of the identified 4h bearish POI to invalidate the setup).
* Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $100850 (Just above the recent 4h swing low, targeting immediate sell-side liquidity).
* Take Profit (TP) Level 2: $100000 (Targeting the significant psychological level and potential underlying demand).

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- The primary area of interest for a short entry is the 4-hour bearish POI located between $106399 and $106480. This zone represents the origin of the recent aggressive downward move that broke significant market structure below.
- This POI is considered high-probability as it is located in a premium area relative to the overall bearish leg that started from around the 106k level. It aligns with the candle that showed significant displacement and originated the strong selling pressure.
- Entry confirmation will be sought on the 15m chart as price reaches this 4h POI. Look for a sweep of any short-term buy-side liquidity (inducement highs) formed during the current retracement within the POI, followed by a clear displacement (impulsive move down), a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) below a recent 15m low, and a return to a newly formed 15m bearish Order Block or Fair Value Gap (FVG) created by the displacement. Entry is targeted at the fill of this LTF FVG/OB.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- The High Timeframe (Daily and 4h) structure, while previously bullish, is now showing a clear shift towards bearishness with a significant impulsive move down. This indicates potential institutional selling pressure entering the market.
- The recent move down from ~106.5k has taken out significant sell-side liquidity (SSL) below previous swing lows.
- The immediate liquidity targets for this short setup are the SSL below the recent 4h swing low at $100837.90, followed by the major psychological level and potential HTF demand around $100000.00.
- The proposed entry POI around $106399 - $106480 is located strategically above short-term buy-side liquidity (BSL) formed during the current retracement, which may act as inducement before the continuation of the bearish move.
- Confirmation on the 15m timeframe (MSS/CHoCH) would signal a short-term shift in order flow back in alignment with the dominant 4h/Daily bearish impulse, increasing the probability of the trade.

22/06/2025

DOGEUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/22/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bearish - The Daily chart shows clear bearish expansion, establishing lower lows and lower highs. Price is currently trading near the lows of the recent significant bearish leg, indicating strong prevailing institutional order flow to the downside.

* Confidence Level: Medium (While HTF is bearish, the recent sweep of prior lows introduces potential for a deeper retracement or temporary bounce. Confirmation on LTF is crucial.)
* Position: Short (Anticipating continuation of the HTF bearish trend after a retracement.)
* Recommended Leverage: Max 20x (Manage risk appropriately based on account size and the setup's RRR.)
* Entry Zone Target: Anticipate entry within the 4h Bearish FVG / Supply Zone between $0.16000 and $0.16250 upon LTF confirmation.
* Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $0.16450 (Placed logically above the identified 4h POI and recent swing high to invalidate the bearish scenario for this setup.)
* Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $0.15050 (Targeting the liquidity below the recent significant sweep low on the 4h/1d chart.)
* Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $0.13000 (Targeting the external range liquidity at the prominent Daily low from 12/19/2024.)

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- Entry is focused on a 4-hour Bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) / Supply Zone identified between $0.16000 - $0.16250. This zone represents an inefficiency created during the recent strong bearish move on the MTF, located within the overall bearish HTF market flow.
- This POI is a high-probability area for Smart Money to potentially sell, being located in a premium region relative to the lows reached after the recent price drop.
- Entry confirmation will be sought on the 15m Low Timeframe (LTF) as price enters the 4h POI. Look for a potential sweep of short-term buy-side liquidity (inducement/Judas Swing) within or just above the POI, followed by a clear bearish displacement (impulsive move down) and a bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) on the 15m chart. The entry will be taken on the subsequent return (pullback) to a newly formed bearish FVG or Order Block created by this 15m displacement move. A potential volume spike on the displacement candle away from the POI would add confluence.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- The prevailing HTF bias (Daily chart) is clearly bearish, characterized by continued downside expansion and the formation of lower lows and lower highs. Price is currently in a probable retracement phase within this larger bearish move.
- On the 4h and 1d charts, price recently swept significant sell-side liquidity residing below the prior swing lows around $0.157 and $0.159, dropping sharply to $0.15025 on 12/19/2024. The bounce from this low is seen as a reaction to this liquidity sweep and potentially engineered buy-side liquidity (inducement) to draw price into the identified bearish POI above $0.160.
- The proposed trade aims to capitalize on the continuation of the dominant bearish order flow from the HTF by entering short at a supply zone (4h FVG/OB) in a premium area of the recent bearish leg.
- The primary Take Profit target (TP1) is the swept low at $0.15025, as price often revisits liquidity points after a sweep. The secondary target (TP2) is the lower Daily low at $0.12986, representing the next major external range liquidity target for the bearish trend.

22/06/2025

AVAXUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/22/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bearish - The Daily chart shows a clear downtrend with multiple breaks of prior lows, indicating a strong bearish institutional order flow. Price recently reached new lows within the visible data range.

* Confidence Level: Medium (High conviction on overall bearish trend, but awaiting specific entry confirmation).
* Position: Short (Pending retracement to Point of Interest).
* Recommended Leverage: 10x (Max 20x for experienced traders managing risk tightly).
* Entry Zone Target: Targeting entry within the 4-hour Bearish Order Block, refined to the 15-minute Order Block between $18.24 and $18.34. Await Low Timeframe confirmation upon price entering this zone.
* Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $18.45 (Placed logically above the 4-hour swing high to protect against invalidation of the bearish premise).
* Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $16.32 (Targeting the recent significant low / external range liquidity).
* Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $15.62 (Targeting the prior significant low within the provided Daily data).

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
* Entry is focused on a 4-hour Bearish Order Block (roughly $18.26 - $18.37 based on the candle open/high) which initiated a strong displacement to the downside. This zone is further refined to the 15-minute Order Block originating the push down within that 4h range ($18.24 - $18.34).
* This POI is considered high-probability as it sits in the premium of the recent 4-hour bearish leg (High $18.41 to Low $16.32), representing potential smart money selling interest.
* Anticipate price to rally into this $18.24 - $18.34 zone. Entry confirmation will be sought on a Low Timeframe (e.g., 15m) via a liquidity sweep of minor highs within or just above the zone, followed by a strong displacement (impulsive move down), a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) below a recent LTF swing low, and a return to a newly formed Bearish FVG or Order Block created by that displacement. Entry on the return, ideally at the 50% (Mean Threshold) or origin of the entry FVG/OB.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
* The higher timeframes (Daily, 4h) clearly indicate a strong bearish trend with recent price action breaking significant structure lows. The market is currently in a retracement phase after dipping to a low of $16.32, potentially sweeping liquidity below prior lows around $16.55.
* The proposed trade aligns with the dominant bearish trend. It aims to position short from a premium supply zone located within the recent 4h bearish leg.
* The primary liquidity target for this short position is the sell-side liquidity resting below the recent low at $16.32. If this level is broken with conviction, further downside towards $15.62 is anticipated.
* The confirmation hinges on observing a clear bearish reversal pattern on the 15m timeframe once price interacts with the $18.24 - $18.34 supply zone, reinforcing the HTF bearish bias and providing a precise entry signal.

22/06/2025

ETHUSDT SMC Trade Analysis for 06/22/2025

Overall Market Bias (HTF Perspective): Bearish - The Daily and 4-hour timeframes exhibit clear downward market structure with recent aggressive price movements breaking below previous swing lows. This indicates dominant bearish institutional order flow and a high probability of further downside continuation. Price is currently residing near recent lows, suggesting it may be completing or consolidating before the next potential downward leg.

- Confidence Level: Medium-High
- Position: Short
- Recommended Leverage: Max 20x (Risk management is crucial; adjust leverage based on individual risk tolerance and position sizing relative to the Stop Loss distance.)
- Entry Zone Target: Targeting entry on a retracement into a refined bearish Point of Interest (POI). The zone of interest is centered around the $2405.00 - $2410.00 area, based on recent 15m/4h inefficiencies (FVGs) and potential order flow origins within the last major bearish impulse. This zone sits in a 'Premium' area relative to the recent swing high and low.
- Stop-Loss (SL) Level: $2430.00. This level is placed just above the significant 15m/4h swing high that is structurally relevant to the targeted entry POI and would indicate invalidation of the immediate bearish bias from this zone.
- Take Profit (TP) Level 1: $2216.00. This targets the low of the aggressive 4h/Daily candle formed recently, representing a significant pool of sell-side liquidity (External Range Liquidity).
- Take Profit (TP) Level 2 (Optional): $2125.00. Targeting a historical Daily low, which is a key structural level and the next potential major draw on sell-side liquidity below TP1.

* Point of Interest (POI) & Entry Model
- The primary focus for entry is the Bearish POI / FVG Zoneidentified on the 15m and 4h charts between $2405.00 and $2410.00. This area represents a pocket of inefficiency created during the strong bearish move down.
- This POI is considered high probability because it aligns with the overall bearish HTF bias, is located in a premium segment of the recent trading range, and is an area where price traded through rapidly, leaving behind unfilled orders (implied by FVG/Imbalance).
- The anticipated entry model is a Limit Entry within this POI, anticipating a retracement into this supply zone before the bearish trend continues. While a limit order is the primary method, aggressive traders might look for subtle LTF (e.g., 1m/3m) signs of rejection or bearish displacement upon price entering the zone, though this is not explicitly required by the base strategy on this occasion.

* Market Structure & Liquidity Narrative:
- ETHUSDT is currently in a strong bearish expansion phase across Daily and 4-hour timeframes, characterized by successive breaks of market structure (BOS) to the downside. The institutional order flow is clearly oriented downwards.
- Price has recently swept short-term liquidity (Inducement) levels created during minor retracements within the larger bearish trend, fueling the moves lower.
- The immediate draw on liquidity below the current price lies at the recent significant swing low around $2216.00. Breaking this low would likely lead to further downside exploration, with the next major target being the historical Daily low at $2125.00.
- This trade setup aims to capitalize on a retracement within the current bearish leg to enter short at a favorable price (within the identified POI) before price continues its descent towards the significant sell-side liquidity targets at $2216.00 and $2125.00.