30/03/2026
🇵🇭 ENERGY CRISIS UPDATE — MARCH 30
We're at Day 20 of the US-Iran war. Thailand just proved what Manila still hasn't attempted.
ANECDOTE: A friend of mine delivers newspapers around Ayala Alabang using a scooter with a 3L fuel tank. He says he consumes almost all 3L doing his rounds. The artificial fuel hike we are experiencing means he loses around 45 pesos per Liter of gasoline each day x the 3L that he requires to power his ride. That's 135 pesos a day. He delivers these broadsheets 7 days a week and is paid by his employer monthly: 135x7x4 = 3780 pesos.
3780 pesos. This amount approximates losses per month which in terms of personal revenue is extremely debilitating. My friend carries it all in stride and that is all good. However, when it happens that the prices of fare and basic goods reflect the looming economic reality that this artificial fuel hike invites onto itself, the social impact of having less revenue and higher costs may inadvertently impoversish entire families and degrade local communities across the RPH
Restoring sufficient energy security requires the RPH to seek to restore the ordinary means by which we have secured this for ourselves and review any improvements only after all avenues of national power have been fully utilized to that effect and the looming crisis is averted. This means our focus is primarily on obtaining passage through the Hormuz strait and if necessary supplement any initial breakthrough by means of non-conventional sources.
THE BREAKTHROUGH
Thailand has operationalized Hormuz passage. Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow's direct engagement with Iran's ambassador produced a working protocol:
Thailand notifies Iran of vessel names in advance
Tehran clears passage; Oman facilitates transit
Zero payment required — diplomatic reciprocity, not extortion
First tanker (Bangchak's SCG Chemicals vessel) transited March 23; second queued.
Iran has now formally included China, Russia, India, Iraq, Pakistan, Thailand on its "friendly nations" list, with Indonesia in active talks.
The pattern: Declare non-hostile status → submit vessel list → receive clearance. Bangkok executed this in 4 days post-request.
THE PHILIPPINES: STILL NO MOVEMENT
425 gas stations closed nationwide.
Diesel >₱130/L, gas >₱100/L
Russian oil arrived: 700,000 barrels under US 30-day waiver — temporary, insufficient.
Reserves: Government claims "until June 30," but your April 24 deadline (40-day buffer) is 25 days out
Manila is pursuing alternative suppliers (Russia, India, China) but not Hormuz transit guarantees. This is the critical gap.
THE MECHANICS: A PHILIPPINE FRAMEWORK
Based on Thailand's verified model, here's how Manila could execute:
1. Foreign Secretary Manalo directly contacts Iranian Ambassador. IF this week
2. Formal note: Philippines "not a party to conflict"; invoke UNCLOS innocent passage. Day 1-2
3. Submit vessel list (Petron/Shell/Phoenix tankers) Day 2-3
4. Request Omani operational coordination Day 3-4
5. First transit April 6–10
Manila's leverage: 98% import dependence, acute humanitarian need, UN Security Council bid demonstrating "diplomatic capability to navigate contested waters."
THE US FACTOR
No US response to Thailand's deal as of March 30. Trump acknowledged Iran allowed 8 tankers through as a "present," suggesting tacit tolerance of bilateral arrangements. Rubio criticized this as showing "weak US position" but did not condemn Thailand.
The window is open. Washington won't facilitate, but it also won't block.
THE PRINCIPLE
Negotiating Hormuz passage is not endorsing Iran's blockade — it's negotiating around coercion to protect Filipinos' economic participation rights. A state that cannot secure energy cannot protect its people's capacity to speak, work, or live.
Thailand proved this is operationally feasible in 4 days. The only variable is Philippine government will.
TRACKING
Deadline: April 24 (25 days)
Priority: Any Philippine statement on Hormuz talks
New: Indonesia negotiations status; US policy shift risk
The ask: Pursue bilateral Hormuz passage. Not surrender — survival.
Note on the US alliance: The 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty does not apply here. This is a unilateral US-Israel operation, not an attack on Philippine territory or forces. Manila is treaty-bound to mutual defense, not to economic embargo solidarity. Declaring "no position" on this conflict is legally and diplomatically sound.
Sources: Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Bangchak Corporation, i24NEWS, The Independent, Jakarta Post, Philippine DOE, Windward Maritime Intelligence, Al Jazeera, Reuters.
