
15/08/2025
Metro Manila South Real Estate: Price Trends & Market Dynamics
✅️ Residential Price Growth
In Q1 2025, residential property prices in the National Capital Region (NCR) climbed 13.9% year-on-year, far exceeding the 3.0% increase outside the NCR.
Within NCR, condominiums rose by 10.6%, while houses increased by 4.5%.
Condo prices in Metro Manila have demonstrated substantial long-term growth—over 300% increase in the last decade, with mid-range units appreciating 6–8% annually over the past five years.
✅️ Oversupply Challenges & Price Pressures
Unsold condo inventory in Metro Manila has grown to 34 months’ worth, a significant glut that clouds price momentum.
Land values across Metro Manila are projected to decline 2–5% in 2025, driven by oversupply, elevated construction costs, and subdued demand.
Mid-range condo prices may need to correct downward to move unsold units, especially those in the ₱3M–₱7M segment.
✅️ Diverging Asset Types & Buyer Shifts
Townhouse prices in Metro Manila dropped 3.4% in 2024, while single-detached homes fared better, supporting overall national residential growth of 6.7%.
Buyers are now gravitating toward suburban areas (e.g., Cavite, Bulacan) and horizontal developments offering more space and affordability, especially amid new infrastructure projects.
✅️ Infrastructure & Strategic Developments
Major transport infrastructure like the Metro Manila Subway (Phase 1) and the North–South Commuter Railway are underway, with partial operations expected mid-to-late decade—a boon for southern suburbs.
Mixed-use, master-planned townships and eco-friendly developments are shaping new demand in places like Alabang, Bridgetowne, and Bay City—responding to preferences for walkability, green features, and smart-home capabilities.
✅️ Looking Ahead: Balanced Growth Amid Challenges
Metro Manila residential prices are forecast to grow 4–6% in 2025, outpacing inflation and offering moderate investment returns.
The shift toward end-user buyers—young professionals and OFW families looking to occupy rather than speculate—adds stability to the market.
However, continued high vacancy rates (over 23–24%) and persistent mid-end inventory oversupply remain risks to watch.
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✔️ For end-users: Consider suburban options like Cavite or Alabang for better price-to-space value and long-term livability.
✔️ For condo investors: Focus on premium, well-located developments—mid-range mid-end segments may face prolonged sluggishness.
✔️ Watch infrastructure timelines: Accessibility improvements from subway and railway openings can drive future value.
✔️ Be cautious of oversupply: Negotiate favorable pricing or incentives, especially in saturated mid-tier segments.