03/10/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 17
Severe Tropical Storm (MATMO)
Issued at 11:00 PM, 03 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
PAOLO SLIGHTLY DECELERATES WHILE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.
Location of Center (10:00 PM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm PAOLO was estimated based on all available data at 160 km West Northwest of Bacnotan, La Union or 150 km West Southwest of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (17.5°N, 119.1°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 480 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Ilocos Sur, the western portion of Abra (Manabo, Pidigan, Tayum, Langiden, Luba, Danglas, Villaviciosa, La Paz, Pilar, Peñarrubia, San Isidro, San Quintin, Dolores, Bangued, Bucay, Tubo), the northern portion of La Union (Luna, Santol, City of San Fernando, San Juan, Bagulin, Bangar, San Gabriel, Bacnotan, Sudipen, Balaoan), and the northwestern portion of Pangasinan (Anda, Bolinao, Bani)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southern portion of Batanes (Mahatao, Uyugan, Basco, Ivana, Sabtang), Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, the rest of Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, the rest of La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, the northern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael), Tarlac, the northern and central portions of Pampanga (Mexico, Porac, Angeles City, San Luis, Santa Rita, Santa Ana, Guagua, Mabalacat City, Arayat, Candaba, Santo Tomas, San Simon, City of San Fernando, Bacolor, Floridablanca, Magalang), and Zambales
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 10 issued at 11:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone PAOLO.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the outer rain bands of PAOLO will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Bataan, Metro Manila, Pampanga, Bulacan, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar
• Tomorrow (4 October): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Zambales, and Bataan
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 12 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 10 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon. For more details, refer to Gale Warning No. 5A issued at 11:00 PM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to rough to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union.
• Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Isabela, and northern Aurora.
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Zambales and Pangasinan; the remaining seaboards of Aurora.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.0 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the seaboard of northern mainland Quezon; the northern seaboard of Polillo Islands.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PAOLO will continue moving west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, PAOLO will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow (04 October) morning.
• PAOLO will re-intensify while moving over the West Philippine Sea. Re-intensification into a typhoon is expected within the next 12 hours.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 AM tomorrow.
DOST-PAGASA
