01/10/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 1
Tropical Depression
Issued at 11:00 AM, 01 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF SOUTHERN LUZON DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION “PAOLO”.
• Location of Center (7:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Depression PAOLO was estimated based on all available data at 760 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (14.1°N, 131.2°E).
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
• Present Movement:
Westward at 25 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong winds extend outwards up to 360 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
➣ No Wind Signal currently hoisted.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
➣ Heavy Rainfall Outlook
PAOLO is less likely to directly affect the weather condition of the country in the next 24 hours. Onset of heavy rains due PAOLO is possible by Friday (03 October) onwards. A weather advisory may be released today in anticipation of the heavy rains that PAOLO may bring over Northern Luzon and portions of Central Luzon.
➣ Severe Winds
Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted over the eastern sections of Northern and Central Luzon as early as this afternoon or evening. The highest Wind Signal that will likely be hoisted throughout its passage is Wind Signal No. 3. However, since the possibility of reaching typhoon category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is Wind Signal No. 4.
➣ Coastal Inundation
There is a potential risk of coastal flooding due to storm surge in low-lying coastal areas of Northern and Central Luzon due to the passage of PAOLO. Storm surge warning may be issued today or tomorrow (02 October).
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
➣ 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
PAOLO may bring moderate to rough seas over the coastal waters of Northern and Central Luzon starting Friday (03 October) early morning. Gale Warning may be raised over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon as early as tomorrow (02 October) afternoon in anticipation of rough to very rough sea conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• PAOLO is forecast to move generally west northwestward for the entire forecast period. On the forecast track, PAOLO may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora on Friday (03 October) morning or afternoon. Further southward shift of track is possible depending on the strength of the high pressure area to the north of PAOLO.
• PAOLO will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category by Friday morning. Further intensification into a Typhoon prior to landfall is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/TCB-PaoloPH
