11/09/2025
‘Pakistan’s 2025 floods didn’t just drown fields—they exposed the fault lines of hunger, debt, and climate vulnerability. Relief has come, but it is no match for the scale of loss. The real question is whether Pakistan can turn this moment into a pivot toward resilience, or whether it will remain trapped in the cycle of disaster to disaster.’
The Price of Hunger: Pakistan’s Fragile Balance
…while navigating IMF demands, the shifting role of CPEC, and the uncertainties of climate diplomacy
Pakistan’s 2025 Food Crisis
Pakistan is staring down a food crisis that is both immediate and deeply structural. The monsoon floods of 2025 didn’t just wash away crops—they tore through an already fragile system, exposing weaknesses in agriculture, health, and governance. What we’re seeing now is not only empty fields but a convergence of hunger, disease, displacement, and economic strain that threatens national stability.
The rains left behind more than broken levees. Staple crops are gone, prices are climbing out of reach, and families who were already scraping by are now being pushed over the edge. Behind the headlines are children with stunted growth, mothers unable to find clean water, and farmers who say planting feels more like gambling with nature than making a living.
Relief has arrived—government, civil society, and international partners have mobilized—but the scale of need far outpaces the resources on the ground. And here lies the real question: will Pakistan once again stumble from emergency to emergency, or will this moment become the turning point toward resilience?
The Shock: Crops Lost, Prices Soaring
Floodwaters swallowed rice paddies and cotton fields across Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Farmers in Bahawalnagar report losing nearly 80% of their cotton. In Sindh, the land is so waterlogged that fields may remain unusable for months. Livestock, the lifeline of rural households, has been swept away in the thousands.
Markets are still open, but shelves grow thinner by the day. Wheat—Pakistan’s staple—has jumped more than 60% in just weeks, leaping from Rs2,200 to Rs3,600 per 40 kilos. Tomatoes, onions, and other basics aren’t far behind. Yet farmers aren’t seeing relief; debts pile up while middlemen profit. For many, there is no harvest to sell.
One million people displaced in Punjab alone now crowd into camps or spill into cities. That loss of rural labor has its own ripple effect: the very workforce that sustains food production is itself being uprooted.
Fragility Beneath the Floodwaters
These floods struck a country already on the brink. Even before the rains, 11 million Pakistanis faced acute hunger. Nearly four in ten children under five are stunted, and close to one in ten are wasted. Despite being a producer of wheat and rice, over 80% of households cannot afford a healthy diet—a failure of affordability and access, not supply.
The economy offers little relief. Years of political turmoil and debt have left reserves depleted and imports costly. IMF-mandated austerity collides with the urgent need for food subsidies and social protections. China’s CPEC investments remain strategically important but increasingly constrained, while climate diplomacy now shapes Pakistan’s options in global negotiations. The government is trapped in a punishing dilemma: comply with lenders and risk hunger-driven unrest, or subsidize imports and risk financial collapse.
On top of this comes the relentless pressure of climate shocks. The 2022 floods caused billions in damages. The following year brought drought to Sindh and Balochistan. Now, fields are submerged again. Recovery windows are shrinking, steadily eroding agriculture—the backbone of livelihoods and exports.
Beneath these visible crises lies an invisible one: mental health. In Islamabad and Rawalpindi, 57% of adults report clinically relevant depression, with nearly one in five also experiencing anxiety. In Karachi, more than half of adolescents show symptoms of anxiety or depression, while about 17% of children under eleven struggle with emotional or behavioral problems severe enough to need intervention. Yet diagnostic centers are few, prohibitively expensive, and schools lack even basic counselors or nurses. With nearly 45% of the population at or near the poverty line, care remains out of reach for most.
The picture is stark: malnutrition, economic fragility, climate stress, and untreated mental health issues converge into a cycle that threatens not only recovery but Pakistan’s long-term stability.
The Health Emergency Within
Where floodwaters linger, disease follows. Cholera, typhoid, malaria, dengue—the familiar companions of disaster—are already on the rise. Families in camps struggle without clean water or sanitation. Malnourished children are especially vulnerable, their immune systems too weak to withstand outbreaks. Diarrheal diseases strip away what little nutrition food aid provides, trapping households in a vicious cycle of hunger and illness.
Pakistan’s health system, fragile before the floods, is once again at its limits. Clinics run short of staff, medicines, and diagnostic capacity. Mobile health units cannot meet the scale of need. And while international pledges are announced, the gap between promises and delivery remains wide—a reminder that for families wading through the waters, relief delayed is relief denied.
Civil Society on the Frontlines
In Pakistan, when disaster strikes, it is often civil society that responds first. Local organizations, youth groups, and volunteer networks were already in flooded villages delivering food and water while ministries were still taking stock. The Pakistan Red Crescent Society, backed by the IFRC, has reached more than 17,500 people with food, clean water, and shelter. Grassroots coalitions like the Indus Consortium and Doaba Foundation coordinate district-level relief, while youth-led bodies such as the National Youth Climate Change Council run food distributions and cash transfers directly to families.
International NGOs—including groups such as Solidar Suisse and CESVI—have added targeted support, while external partners like the European Union and Iran have also extended humanitarian assistance. These contributions matter on human grounds, yet they also carry weight in a region where geopolitical tensions run high. Aid is never purely logistical; it reflects both the urgency of humanitarian need and the sensitivities of global politics.
These efforts save lives, but compared to the scale of devastation, they are still drops in a rising tide. The question that follows is not only how Pakistan manages relief today, but how it builds resilience for the crises certain to come.
From Relief to Resilience
Emergency aid buys time, but it cannot build the future. Pakistan’s real challenge lies in transforming short-term relief into long-term resilience. That means moving beyond rations toward rebuilding agriculture—restoring irrigation, supplying flood- and drought-resistant seeds, strengthening community grain storage, and investing in cold chains to safeguard the food supply.
It also means closing the gap in early warning systems. Localized and reliable flood forecasts remain scarce, yet partnerships with countries experienced in predictive hydrology could spell the difference between preparation and devastation. Relief must also be integrated: nutrition, clean water, vaccination, and mobile health clinics should work in tandem, since distributing flour without tackling disease leaves communities just as vulnerable.
Even large-scale projects require reframing. CPEC, for instance, need not be confined to energy and highways. It could evolve into a true resilience corridor, channeling investment into climate-smart agriculture and food security.
Finally, resilience depends on trust. Aid filtered through patronage networks undermines society, but when relief is organized with local committees and farmer cooperatives, it builds dignity, ownership, and long-term strength.
The Choice Ahead
The floods of 2025 have stripped away illusions. Pakistan is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, and the cycle of flood, drought, and debt will not pause on its own. The resilience of ordinary people—neighbors feeding neighbors, communities opening doors—has been extraordinary. But resilience at the human level cannot substitute forever for resilience at the system level.
If nothing changes, these emergencies will calcify into a permanent crisis. But if seized as a turning point—if leaders, citizens, and partners commit to building a food system that can withstand both natural and political storms—the floods of 2025 could yet be remembered not as the breaking point, but as the moment Pakistan turned toward resilience.
The question is stark and unavoidable: will Pakistan take that path, or resign itself to living from disaster to disaster?