19/04/2025
Why AS Will Not Capture Mogadishu: Five Key Reasons:
1. Unified Clan and Business Resistance:
Mogadishu's influential clans and powerful business elites have a vested interest in maintaining the city's stability. Any threat to the capital would be met with fierce resistance, as it would endanger both their security and economic survival.
2. Turkey’s Military Presence and Air Superiority:
Turkey has established a significant military footprint in Somalia, including a large training base in Mogadishu. In the event of a major assault, Turkey is likely to deploy advanced weaponry and airpower to prevent AS from gaining ground.
3. Regional Geopolitical Opposition:
Neighboring states and international actors see a stable Mogadishu as critical to the Horn of Africa. A collapse of the Somali capital would trigger regional instability, something powers like Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Gulf States will actively work to prevent.
4. African Union Contingency Force:
African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) have clear mandates to defend the federal government. A full-scale assault on Mogadishu would provoke a coordinated and forceful military response.
5. Vulnerability to Drones and Surveillance:
AS's tactical advantage relies on guerrilla warfare and concealment. If they mobilize openly to attack the capital, they will expose themselves to relentless drone strikes, airstrikes, and real-time surveillance, crippling their offensive capabilities.
Written by Dahir Mire Jibreel.