02/05/2025
The Kampala Project: Top SPLM Historical Leaders to Convene in Uganda to Anoint President Kiir’s Successor
By PaanLuel Wël
As Juba intensifies its political and military campaign against Dr. Riek Machar, culminating in his removal from the vice presidency, a new political development emerges on the horizon. A powerful coalition appears to be forming between President Kiir and the SPLM historical leadership under the patronage of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to anoint President Kiir’s Successor. Beyond his established military influence in South Sudan, President Museveni now seems intent on orchestrating the political succession in a post-Kiir South Sudan.
According to credible sources, prominent SPLM historical figures are gathering in Kampala for high-level discussions aimed at selecting President Kiir's successor. Vice President Mama Rebecca Nyandeng has reportedly been commissioned to persuade SPLM historical leaders residing outside South Sudan to participate in this pivotal conference. This strategic move appears to capitalize on the vulnerability of exiled SPLM leaders, many of whom are experiencing political isolation, financial constraints, and advancing age. Meanwhile, President Kiir has been tasked with securing the support of SPLM historical leaders currently in Juba for this Kampala project, with President Museveni positioning himself as both host and patron of the project.
Insiders reveal that President Museveni's recent diplomatic visit to Juba carried greater significance than publicly acknowledged. Sources indicate that Museveni specifically traveled to persuade President Kiir to reconsider his apparent successor, the Crown Prince, in favor of a candidate from the SPLM's historical leadership ranks. Reports suggest Museveni has expressed dissatisfaction with the Crown Prince, whom he perceives as "unpresidential," lacking both a cultivated political foundation and military influence comparable to figures like King Paul and the "Sun of the Lion," while also falling short of the charisma displayed by Pagan Amum, Nhial Deng, Dr. Majak Agoot and Akol Khor. In Museveni's assessment, the Crown Prince represents a political and military liability with minimal strategic advantages.
Sources close to the discussions claim Museveni candidly advised President Kiir that the Crown Prince has demonstrated undeniable incompetence, urging Kiir to protect his legacy from further damage. One insider characterized the Crown Prince's political rise as that of a trusted intermediary for President Kiir and his family, primarily managing business interests behind the scenes to insulate the President from accusations of financial impropriety.
If these reports prove accurate, the Kampala project serves not only as a mechanism for selecting President Kiir's successor but also as a cautionary tale of meteoric political rise followed by precipitous decline. The Crown Prince appears to have misinterpreted his role, failing to establish the crucial political and military foundations that figures like Malong and Akol Khor secured for themselves. Ateny Wek reportedly remarked at a community gathering that the Crown Prince lacks a power base and would seek UNMISS protection should a crisis reminiscent of the 2016 J-1 incident occur during his presidency.
This political realignment follows a familiar pattern in South Sudan, where President Kiir has demonstrated remarkable skill in cultivating and subsequently neutralizing potential successors. From Dr. Majak Agoot to Nhial Deng, from King Paul to the "Sun of the Lion," from KWAK to Tutkew, and now potentially the Crown Prince, President Kiir has proven himself a master of political maneuvering, earning him the title of political scientist, not to be confused with the self-proclaimed “British-educated Scientist."
Reports indicate the Crown Prince has become aware of this succession plot and has mobilized allies including Martin Elia Lomuro and Michael Makwei, while actively courting Kuol Manyang and Awet Akot to undermine the Kampala project. The Crown Prince and his associates have reportedly focused their counteroffensive on VP Mama Rebecca Nyandeng, who serves as the designated emissary tasked with recruiting SPLM historical leaders from abroad.
Few days ago, President Kiir dispatched Mama Rebecca Nyandeng to Entebbe for a preliminary strategic meeting with President Museveni, attended by Oyai and other SPLM historical figures. As Radio Tamazuj cryptically reported, "Discussions reportedly focused on a political transition and succession plan for South Sudan's leadership, but the meeting ended without a final agreement."
Upon learning of this preliminary meeting, the Crown Prince reportedly retaliated by denying Vice President Nyandeng diplomatic clearance for medical treatment in Dubai, sparking rumors on social media that she had been placed under house arrest in Uganda. Sources claim the Crown Prince is deliberately obstructing Nyandeng's travel arrangements through diplomatic channels and attempting to fracture the G-10 alliance by enticing Majak and Gier with her vice-presidential position.
In Juba, the Crown Prince and his inner circle have allegedly plotted to replace Mama Rebecca Nyandeng with a member of her G-10 group. Social media discussions point to either Dr. Majak Agoot or Gen. Gier Chuang Aluong as potential replacements, to be announced simultaneously with Dr. Riek Machar's successor. Reports suggest both Dr. Majak and Gier have declined to participate in any scheme to undermine Mama Rebecca Nyandeng in the manner applied to Dr. Riek Machar.
Intriguingly, President Kiir appears to maintain a calculated distance from these developments, both regarding the Crown Prince's potential fall from favor and the possible replacements of Dr. Riek Machar and Mama Rebecca Nyandeng. Sources indicate President Kiir advised the Crown Prince to accept these developments with dignified humility, assuring him of continued proximity to power and meaningful compensation.
The identity of President Kiir's anointed successor remains closely guarded. Names circulating include one of President Kiir's sons, Pagan Amum, Nhial Deng, Wani Igga, Deng Alor, Majak Agoot, Taban Deng, Oyai Deng, Rin Tueny, Akol Khor, Mayiik Ayii, John G*i Yoh, Paul Malong, Thomas Chirillo, Paul Mayom Akech, Riek G*i Kok, and Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth, among others. Among these contenders, particularly noteworthy are President Kiir's son and Mayiik Ayii, who reportedly enjoys support from a faction within the First Family opposing President Kiir's son.
What catalyzed the Kampala project? Available information suggests President Kiir's motivation stems partially from his determination to politically and militarily neutralize Dr. Riek Machar, and partially from his desire to salvage his tarnished legacy by initiating a new political era in South Sudan. This would involve establishing a transitional government following the reunification of SPLM historical leaders, tasked with preparing the nation for general elections after 18 months.
For President Museveni, the Kampala Project could also serve as a rehearsal for his own succession planning in Uganda, possibly favoring his son. Moreover, sources suggest Museveni is deeply worried about growing regional concern over stability in Juba and has deemed the Crown Prince as fundamentally unsuited for presidential leadership and wishes to minimize Uganda's liabilities in South Sudan.
For Mama Rebecca Nyandeng, who seconded the nomination of Commander Salva Kiir following Dr. John Garang's death, this appears to provide an opportunity to contribute to national healing by facilitating the selection of President Kiir's successor, mirroring her role in the succession after Dr. John Garang. Now, she may be positioning herself once more at the heart of a generational handover in South Sudan.
Finally, in what could be the final blow, First Daughter Adut Salva Kiir has reportedly developed cold feet towards the Crown Prince. According to insiders, First Daughter Adut Salva has grown increasingly distant from the Crown Prince, potentially sealing his political fate. As the Kampala Project unfolds, the future of South Sudan’s leadership hangs in the balance. What is clear, however, is that the battle over Kiir’s successor has already begun and the stakes have never been higher.
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