20/07/2025
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The Nile and the Sudd Wetland: A brewing conflict in the region
Our own Nile and the Sudd Wetland could very likely be the cause of a regional war in the near future. If not within the next three years, then certainly in the years to come.
The two downstream countries among the Nile riparian states—Egypt and Sudan—hold fundamentally different views from the other nine countries in the Great Lakes region regarding the equitable share of Nile waters. In 1929, Egypt signed an agreement with the British colonial administration in Sudan which granted Egypt and Sudan 100% usage rights over the Nile waters. A further agreement in 1959 gave Egypt 66% of the waters and Sudan 22%, leaving only 12% to account for evaporation. Notably, Ethiopia—which contributes the majority of the Nile’s water—was excluded from both agreements. The other eight riparian countries were either still under colonial rule or deeply involved in self-determination struggles, with widespread insecurity rendering them incapable of participating in the Nile water negotiations.
This historical exclusion left the upstream countries voiceless while Egypt and Sudan cemented their control through legally binding agreements that ignored the rights and needs of the rest of the basin states. However, these agreements are now under threat due to rising demands and changing regional dynamics. The emergence of assertive, independent upstream countries has shifted the conversation, creating uncertainty about the future of the Nile Basin. These countries now seek a fair and equitable share of the Nile waters, and calls for revisiting and restructuring outdated agreements are gaining momentum. Various peaceful initiatives are being explored to ensure coexistence and mutual benefit among all the Nile Basin states.
The formation of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) in 1999 marked a renewed attempt at equitable water usage. However, the downstream countries have shown resistance, viewing it as a threat to their long-standing privileges. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in 2011 has further fueled disputes, particularly between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan. In the coming decades, tensions may escalate, potentially drawing countries like South Sudan into conflict. Ethiopia’s ability to regulate the flow of the Blue Nile poses a strategic challenge to Egypt and Sudan, and similarly, the Sudd Wetland in South Sudan, if left undisturbed, acts as a natural dam regulating the White Nile’s flow to the downstream countries.
This situation threatens the water security of Egypt and Sudan, both of which rely heavily on the Nile for agriculture and hydroelectric power. As a result, downstream countries have influenced two major projects in South Sudan—the dredging of the White Nile and the completion of the Jonglei Canal. These projects aim to drain the Sudd region, thereby increasing the volume and speed of water flowing downstream.
Fortunately, the government of South Sudan and the East African Community suspended these projects in 2022 and 2023. This was a wise and environmentally conscious decision. Draining the Sudd Wetland, which is Africa’s largest swamp and a biodiversity hotspot, would have devastating consequences. Environmental Impact Assessments and ecological research confirm that such interference would destroy habitats, endanger species, disrupt weather patterns, and reduce rainfall. Fishing communities that depend on the wetland would face increased conflict, and mass displacement could follow. Population growth and climate change are already placing pressure on the Nile’s water levels, and any further interference could tip the region into environmental and geopolitical crisis.
In conclusion, we must recognize the strategic importance of our natural resources and prepare ourselves as a nation. South Sudan needs to focus on peace and unity, which are essential for national development. With internal stability, we can invest in infrastructure, strengthen our defense forces, and resist marginalization by powerful external actors who continuously seek to exploit our vulnerabilities.
Let us protect our sovereignty and preserve the Sudd for future generations.
~Maluk AbrahamShayor
