16/04/2025
Title:
Even If Riek Becomes President, Will the Nuer Ever Stop Rebellion? A Harsh Reality Check for South sudan.
Introduction:
South Sudan's long path to independence has been drenched in the blood of its people. Yet peace still remains a mirage. At the heart of this turbulent journey lies a hard truth that no one dares to speak loudly: the Nuer, despite producing iconic leaders like Dr. Riek Machar, continue to use rebellion as a tool of negotiation, a badge of identity, and a method of imposing demands. Even if Riek Machar were handed the presidency today, the painful cycle of rebellion, internal rivalry, and unquenchable greed within the Nuer community threatens to destroy any hope of national unity.
1. A Warrior Tradition Turned Against the Nation
The Nuer are known for bravery—a trait deeply rooted in their culture. Historically, they were cattle raiders, fearless fighters, and defenders of their land. But in modern politics, this warrior mentality has evolved into a dangerous resistance to order and structure. Instead of channeling this courage into nation-building, it has become a weapon of division.
In 1991, Riek Machar split from John Garang’s SPLM/A in what became known as the SPLA-Nasir faction, resulting in the Bor Massacre, where over 2,000 Dinka civilians were slaughtered. This wasn't just a military rebellion—it was a tribal declaration. And despite reconciliation talks and peace deals, the legacy of that betrayal still haunts South Sudan.
2. Ngundeng’s Prophecy: A Dangerous Mythology
The belief that Riek Machar is the "chosen one" of Prophet Ngundeng B**g has been the spiritual engine behind many Nuer political decisions. Ngundeng’s prophecies—often quoted by Nuer elites—speak of a Nuer leader who would "rule over all South Sudanese and bring justice." This narrative has not only elevated Riek to a near-messianic status among his people, but also created an untouchable myth that justifies rebellion whenever things don’t go their way.
But what happens when this “anointed one” fails to deliver?
In 2016, when Riek was reinstated as First Vice President in Juba under the August 2015 Peace Agreement, Nuer militias and generals—some of them claiming loyalty to him—still continued to splinter and rebel, demanding more power, more positions, more wealth.
Even Prophet Ngundeng’s own descendant, James Gatdet Dak, Riek’s former spokesman, was not spared. He was accused of betrayal and detained, showing that internal mistrust runs deeper than tribal loyalty.
3. Rebellion as a Political Tradition: Who Will Break the Cycle?
The sad truth is, rebellion has become a career path for many Nuer politicians and generals. When they are not given the "big pot"—a powerful position or access to oil money—they immediately resort to violence. This has created a toxic pattern:
1991: Riek rebels against Garang (SPLA split).
1997: Signs the Khartoum Peace Agreement with Bashir—only to rejoin SPLA later.
2013: Riek clashes with Salva Kiir—igniting a civil war that kills hundreds of thousands.
2016: Returns to Juba under peace agreement—only to fight again and flee.
2021–2023: SPLM-IO splits into multiple factions, including Kitgwang Declaration led by Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual.
Even if Riek is crowned president tomorrow, others in his own tribe—those with grudges, ambition, or hunger for power—will rise against him. It’s not about peace. It’s about position. The idea of “we rebel to negotiate” has taken root so deeply that it may no longer be possible to govern the Nuer even by one of their own.
4. Greed, Betrayal, and Lack of Trust Among Themselves
One of the greatest tragedies of Nuer politics is their internal betrayal. Riek Machar’s own commanders have often turned against him. From Peter Gatdet Yak to Gatwech Dual, those once loyal have accused him of selfishness and weak leadership.
In 2021, Gen. Gatwech accused Riek of being compromised and weak, forming his own faction—the SPLM/A-IO Kitgwang. Gatwech even declared himself “interim chairman,” an outright coup against Riek.
This betrayal proves a harsh truth: if the Nuer cannot trust their own leader, why should the rest of South Sudan trust them with national leadership?
5. Will a Nuer Presidency Bring Peace? Don't Hold Your Breath.
Let us be brutally honest. If Riek becomes president today, the only thing that changes is the title. The factions will still emerge. Greedy generals will feel excluded. Those who believe they fought more than others will demand a bigger reward. Those who feel “neglected” will scream marginalization and pick up arms. The rebellion culture is so deeply rooted that no presidency will fix it.
This isn’t tribal hatred—this is a political reality backed by blood-soaked history.
Conclusion: South Sudan Needs National Leaders, Not Tribal Champions
If South Sudan wants peace, it must outgrow tribal loyalties and spiritual prophecies. The Nuer community must face the bitter truth: repeated rebellions and internal divisions will never earn respect nor power—they will only isolate the community further.
Quoting the late SPLA Commander William Nyuon Bany:
> "You don’t build a nation by fighting your own people; you build it by standing with them, even when you disagree."
Until the Nuer community begins to reject rebellion as a way of negotiation, and until leaders like Riek Machar stop using tribal backing as leverage for power, peace will remain a dream.
South Sudan deserves better. Not a tribal president, but a unifier. Not a rebel commander, but a statesman.
