Denis Gorbunenko

06/11/2024

Today the whole world is discussing the US election. And I’m as usual interested in the financial component. It turned out that this election is the most expensive election in US history!

According to the FT https://on.ft.com/3V3wI6b , presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump raised $4.2 billion for their campaigns and spent $3.5 billion. Most of the money was spent on media and advertising. Moreover, $1.5 billion was spent on advertising in seven states that are considered key to the election results. Kamala Harris spent $1 billion of this amount.

But the candidates' spending is not the whole story. According to the analytical company AdImpact https://bit.ly/40HqD2y , total spending on political advertising in this election cycle reached almost $10.9 billion. For comparison, in 2020, this amount was $8.5 billion. A significant amount - $2.2 billion - was spent in the last two weeks this year. Future Forward PAC spent more than $170 million on advertising during this time, and Philadelphia was the largest market, with more than $106 million spent there.

01/11/2024

Yesterday was the most mystical day of the year - Halloween. it's interesting, how much money spent people on celebrating. And I'm not the only one interested in this question.

Prosper Insights & Analytics has calculated (https://nrf.com/) that in the US, total spending on Halloween this year reached $11.6 billion. The figure is impressive, although it is not a record. Last year, Americans spent $12.2 billion.

The main items of expenditure this year were as follows: sweets - $3.5 billion, decorations - $3.8 billion, costumes - $3.8 billion, greeting cards - $0.5 billion. One American spent an average of $103.63 on the holiday!

25/10/2024

Foreign investors are losing ground in the Ukrainian banking sector. And local players are expanding their positions. One of the signs of this process is the sale by the Polish company Getin Holding of its Ukrainian asset, Idea Bank, to the TAS Group. What is going on? I told in my blog on Medium by the link

A landmark event in the Ukrainian market just occurred! The Polish company Getin Holding sold its asset, namely the Ukrainian bank Idea…

16/10/2024

In the spring of this year we saw ad hoc buying banks, insurance and trading firms by hedge funds, and this seemed to be a short-term burst of interest. Now, however, this activity has turned into a steady flow, and that is natural. After the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank six months ago, the shares of many financial institutions fell in value. But after the fall comes growth. UBS and Deutsche Bank, for example, saw their shares rise by 60–70% over the course of the year. Shares in other financial institutions have not risen as much — JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, for example, have seen more modest gains in the 20–30% range.

However, investors, including hedge funds, are attracted not only by the current value of the shares but also by the trend of the market recovery itself. The financial sector shows potential for long-term asset growth.

Another reason for the continued focus on financials is their stable dividends. This is not just a nice bonus, but rather another reason why shares in the sector continue to rise in value. The story doesn’t end there, either. Global macroeconomic policies and the downward trend in interest rates are opening the door to a pick-up in lending, which will inevitably lead to higher earnings for financial companies and as a result, rising share prices.

Current trends in the financial sector therefore suggest strong potential for asset growth. Against the backdrop of market stabilization, over the past six months, the Dow Jones Banks Index (DJUSBK) has grown approximately 40% since mid-April till mid-October, while the index S&P 500 increased by 15%, Dow Jones Industrial Average by around 14%. If macroeconomic conditions remain favourable and dividend yields remain at 3–4% p.a. (Such dividends are paid by such companies as Unilever та Coca-Cola), financials could become an important growth driver in investors’ portfolios☝️

04/10/2024

The end of the Visa and Mastercard era? Last week 16 leading banks and payment processors in the European Union announced the creation of their own new payment system, Wero, which could become a competitor to Visa and Mastercard in the future.

Together, Visa and Mastercard process trillions of dollars worth of transactions annually around the world, and the launch of a new European system could deprive them, according to Wero supporters, of billions of dollars they receive in fees from European merchants for each transaction made with their cards.

Previously, there were several projects aimed at creating a competitor for Visa and Mastercard, but they did not work as expected. We will see whether the initiative will become a breakthrough. I'm sure Wero has a very long way to go before it stacks up against Visa and Mastercard. Details here https://bloom.bg/3zMyX6g

26/09/2024

About ten years ago, when banking mobile applications began to mature rapidly and customers could conduct most transactions online, discussions began about whether and when bank branches would disappear.

This topic came up again when banks started actively using AI in their operations. However, years have passed, and branches not only continue to exist, but their number is increasing!

For example, one of the largest US banks, one of the Big Four banks, namely Bank of America, plans to open more than 165 financial centers by the end of 2026 in 63 markets. 40 financial centers will be opened this year. This is in addition to the more than 100 centers the company has opened over the past two years. Since 2014, Bank of America has invested more than $5 billion in expanding its financial centers.

At the same time, the bank recognized that most customers use a variety of digital devices to conduct their day-to-day banking transactions, and they need to visit branches to discuss their more complex financial needs in person and realize their financial goals.

So, will bank branches live on? I am sure they will, and for a long time.

13/09/2024

📉The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the second time in a row - a predictable and expected decision.

The global economy is entering a new phase, which is somewhat encouraging: the era of high inflation, which will peak at the end of 2022, is coming to an end. Central banks in developing countries started to cut interest rates at the beginning of 2024 and the first developed country, Switzerland, joined them on 21 March.

Everyone was waiting for the big players - the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England - to act.

And yesterday, for the second time in a year (the first was in June), the European Central Bank cut interest rates on three key indicators (main refinancing operations, margin lending and the deposit facility) by 25 basis points to 3.90%, 3.65% and 3.50% respectively. The ECB also revised its inflation forecasts for the coming years to 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Find the link in the first comment 👇

30/08/2024

UK remains a destination for venture investment in tech. In the first half of the year 2024 alone, UK attracted an incredible £7.4bn. Now, what is driving it? Well, here are the main factors:

📌A super-developed financial infrastructure
📌 Smart tax laws
📌 Big incentives for scientific startups and R&D

These are just a few reasons why London remains head and shoulders above other major European hubs in Paris and Stockholm. Want to go deep inside? Read all about it here ➡️

The UK continues to be the top European destination for venture capital investment in the technology sector. However, this result is not a…

16/08/2024

Here’s the latest EU economy review by The Economist. While the region shows promising signs of recovery, such as improved employment, lower inflation, and wage growth, some risks remain. Rents are rising, with a 10% surge in some cities, and German exports are not as optimistic as before. A very soft takeoff is expected. Find the link in the first comment 👇

02/08/2024

This did not happen at once. We all witnessed their GDP growth, technological progress, and the increasing presence of Chinese-produced goods in stores. Foreign direct investment by Chinese companies in new businesses tripled last year to $160 billion, writes THE ECONOMIST. Impressively, over the past eight years, listed Chinese companies have quadrupled their sales in the South to $800 billion, and now sell more there than in rich countries. Yet, we may still not be prepared for this fierce competition from the global south. What will be the West's response? 🤔

26/12/2023

China is currently experiencing severe deflation, which has become increasingly evident over the past three years. This phenomenon manifests itself in several key aspects.
First, there is a decrease in consumer prices. In November, prices in China decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous year, which exceeded expectations for a drop of 0.2%. This price decline suggests a decrease in demand for goods and services.
Secondly, there is a decrease in producer prices, which fell by 3% and have been consistently declining through the year. This indicates a decrease in production costs or an excess of goods, which also contributes to deflationary pressure.
Deflation in China also reflects the broader range of economic challenges the country has faced recently. These challenges include a liquidity crisis in the real estate sector, weak indicators of domestic and foreign trade, as well as a slow economic recovery after a long period of quarantine measures and border closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Together, these factors paint a complex economic landscape, where deflation becomes one of the key elements requiring attention and response from the government and regulators. Importantly, deflation can have both short-term and long-term effects on the economy. This impact may be different depending on how the economic policy will be carried out and what measures will be taken to stabilize the situation.

25/12/2023

Dear friends, Happy New Year and Merry Christmas! 🎄

Let the coming of the New Year be the beginning of wonderful opportunities and successes in your life and business. I wish you good health, self-confidence and let all your plans come true. Let 2024 be a year of new achievements and victories! I sincerely wish you a Happy New Year!