The Kiev Times /English version/

The Kiev Times /English version/ The newspaper "The Kiev Times" - international, analytical and news publication.

This week President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich is going to Moscow to take part in a Supreme Eurasian Council, said the...
23/12/2013

This week President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich is going to Moscow to take part in a Supreme Eurasian Council, said the Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigoriy Karasin and the media. Also Presidents of Kazakhstan and Belarus will participate in the meeting. The main topic of discussion with Putin at the head is a creation of a Eurasian economic union (EAU).

So finally we get to know the price of the cheap gas and a multibillion loan for Ukraine. In comparison, the Customs Union together with the Common Economic Space - of Russian, Belarus and Kazakhstan - is not a competitor to EU, but the EAU is much more serious and it is the ultimate aim of Putin.

The contract about creation of EAU was produced by Medvedev, Lukashenko and Nazarbaev on the 18th of November 2011, and the union is expected to be established as of January 2015. EAU means common tariffs, common technical requiremements, unified banking system, single currency, and strengthening of the borders from the European Union and the rest of the world as well.

Yanukovich didn't sign the agreement with Europe and got the EuroMaydan as a response. Then he got the $15 billion, and now is going back to Moscow again. Why? Ukrainian political analyst Vadim Karasev has already came out with a suggestion that the entry into the EAU is, in fact, a main condition for the "generous donation" from Russian to Ukraine.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/authority/294362-yanukovich-edet-vstupat-v-evrazijskij-soyuz-oppoziciya-obmanuta.html

The People’s Veche on Sunday didn’t occur to be anyhow special, says political analyst Aleksey Golobutskiy to the corres...
23/12/2013

The People’s Veche on Sunday didn’t occur to be anyhow special, says political analyst Aleksey Golobutskiy to the correspondent of The Kiev Times. “Unfortunately, Ukrainians pinned too much hopes on it. It is always a national problem – to believe in a miracle, to believe that a hurricane will emerge out of nowhere and will take down the existing government. EuroMaydan needs to be transformed into a new form”, - says the expert.

He says he likes the idea of expanding the EuroMaydan throughout the whole country: “The idea itself is beautiful, but how realistic is it to implement it? There might be hundreds of ideas. Probably, it can be a demarche or public opinion polls in a form of People’s Veche in other Ukrainian cities”.

“I think, with this kind of mobilization and order Maydan will last for another two months. But right now its major issue is to be heard by the authorities. Lutsenko says that Maydan can gather up to 10 million people. But if the government doesn’t listen to a million of citizens nor will it listen to ten million; while they have to be open and strive for a discussion and hear public opinion even if it’s only 10 thousands people”, - says Golobutskiy.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/society/294434-evromajdan-tochno-proderzhitsya-eshhe-dva-mesyaca-ekspert.html

ON CURRENCY, AND OTHER MATTERSIn 2013, the world's main currencies were all affected by the economic crisis. Media atten...
20/12/2013

ON CURRENCY, AND OTHER MATTERS

In 2013, the world's main currencies were all affected by the economic crisis. Media attention on the possibility of world economic and political instability in a number of countries instantly affected their exchange rates.
The most influential news, with regard to the exchange rate of dominant world currencies, – dollar, euro, yen, ruble, yuan – were the proceedings of the US government to increase its borrowing debt ceiling. Currency quotes were also influenced by reports of economic recession in a number of EU countries, according to financial analysts.

Read the full article in The Kiev Times /December 2013 - January 2014/ http://tkt.ms/18QQoNv

The meeting of President of Ukraine with President of Russian this Tuesday is a failure both for Putin and Yanukovich, s...
20/12/2013

The meeting of President of Ukraine with President of Russian this Tuesday is a failure both for Putin and Yanukovich, said political analyst Viktor Nebozhenko to the correspondent of The Kiev Times. “Vladimir Putin assumes that by making Yanukovich take the $15 billion loan, he’s obtained powerful tools of influence and pressure on Ukraine, while Yanukovich is unable to justify his actions in Moscow. It will be bad for Yanukovich when he returns to Ukraine and for Putin as well, because he opposed their personal alliance to the Ukraine-EU relations”, - said Nebozhenko.

He also thinks that Putin will struggle after the deal made on Tuesday. “Possibly, the new President of Ukraine in 2015 will refuse to pay back the $15 billion loan”, - he supposes. “Scenario of these decisions is quite similar to the agreement signed in Kharkiv in 2010. The Ukrainian government didn’t fulfill the conditions of that agreement and now they are taking another multibillion loan and maybe will not meet the conditions either. In a way it is “Kharkiv agreements-2”, - says the expert.

However, Nebozhenko added that this does not put obstacles in the way of Ukrainian European integration.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/authority/291923-v-moskve-proigral-ne-tolko-yanukovich-politolog.html

2013 has already been named a crisis year for Ukraine. For now the main question remains – how long will the government ...
19/12/2013

2013 has already been named a crisis year for Ukraine. For now the main question remains – how long will the government be able keep the national currency, bank system and industrial level stable?

Experts note that investors divide the economy now into more perspective and less perspective branches. For instance, resident investors continue to willingly invest into agricultural production, food industry and trading, but not so much into metallurgy and construction development.

Due to the interbank market interventions of National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the cash currency market showed only a slight decline as a reaction to the EuroMaydan. “As a result of active actions of NBU the situation stabilized and the revaluation of hryvna is possible by the end of this year”, - forecasts Aleksandr Okhrimenko, president of the Ukrainian Analytical Center. “In general, NBU has all the necessary tools to back hryvna”, says chief financial analyst of rating agency “Expert-Rating” Vitaliy Shapran. However, he notes, politics should take measures to reduce the pressure on the balance of payments during the following two months.

He also says the Ukrainian banking system was prepared for the political crisis. According to NBU amount of bank deposits has been augmented in November by 1,9% that equals UAH20 billion, and now totals UAH1,08 trillion. And since the beginning of the year the amount of bank deposits has grown by 13%.

It is also possible, says Shapran, that while NBU is backing the currency rate, it will cut on the bank’s money liquidity, and it will result into higher deposit and loan interest rates. On the other hand, clearly, that the crisis scenario of mass banks defaults of 2008-2009 is eliminated. “Due to the toughened foreign currency crediting in the past, today banks carry minimal risks”, - says the analyst.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/finances/291788-devalvaciya-grivny-i-rezhim-ozhidaniya-kak-povedet-sebya-ekonomika.html

The European Commission (EC), in an effort to avoid further economic crisis, has restrained the financial sovereignty of...
19/12/2013

The European Commission (EC), in an effort to avoid further economic crisis, has restrained the financial sovereignty of EU members.


On November 15, the web edition of the British newspaper, The Telegraph, posted an article with the headline “EU uses new budget powers to demand more austerity in Italy and Spain”.
Bruno Waterfield, The Telegraph’s correspondent in Brussels, writes that the European Commission has for the first time “exercised historic new EU powers allowing it to revise national budgets”. Moreover, national draft budgets are reviewed by Brussels before national budget committees have even voted on them. Thus, the non-elected European bureaucracy in Brussels took over national governments and parliaments of EU countries. The reason is that stability of the European currency is too delicate a matter to be entrusted to national governments and parliaments, for they are much more interested in their electorate and country rather than the well-being of Europe as a whole.
Olli Rehn, vice president of the European Commission, responsible for the euro-zone of 17 EU member states, pompously stated (I quote from The Telegraph article): “Because in an economic and monetary union, national budgetary decisions can have an impact well beyond national borders, member states have given the commission the responsibility”. This means credence cannot be given to the national government authorities of the EU countries. And further: “This is a historic moment! One has to ask whether the euro-zone’s voters yet appreciate what a huge shift in sovereignty this is away from national parliaments to conclaves of finance ministers and commission officials”. Stopping short of an outright demand for the revision of budgets, or imposition of penalties, Mr Rehn said he was encouraging governments to bring their 2014 budgets into compliance with the commission’s interpretations of the new rules. “This exercise is much more about partnership than penalties,” he said.
And who has been criticized by Brussels the most?
Spain and Italy have been warned that their budgets for 2014 are in breach of European Union rules. France was also cautioned to cut down on its budget expenses in 2014-2015. As Europe’s largest and most prosperous economy, Germany was lightly criticized for not making significant progress in following EU recommendations to help its neighbors in the euro-zone by encouraging domestic demand and imports, and also for decreasing their macroeconomic indicators.
However, as soon as a new government of Germany is established, considering the results of the 2013 autumn elections, it will have to introduce a new budget to the parliament with due regard to the Commission’s recommendations. As a side note, the most stable budget in 2014 (except for Germany) was in Estonia, an EU newcomer.
Italy and Spain – countries with the most floundering economies in the EU – have suffered the most. They were reprimanded for “breaking debt reduction targets in breach of spending caps” that were set out in the Maastricht Treaty that led to the very creation of the EU’s eponymous currency.
According to Waterfield, the commission’s Italy verdict has become “political dynamite”. The country’s Prime-minister, Enrico Letta, and the coalition are continuously torn by the arguments over tax reductions in the parliament. Left wing opposition in that same parliament vigorously struggle against the policies of austerity advanced by the Italian government.
Fabrizio Saccomanni, the Italian finance minister, believes that the suggested regulations on the Italian government at the behest of EU officials, can fatally weaken the country’s economy. This Brussels intervention aggravates the situation, especially after Mr Rehn ruled out an exempting €3bn in investment spending that the Italian government has included in its 2014 budget. It was planned to use the investment spending for privatizing of dilapidated cultural and architectural sites on condition that the new owners preserve their historical significance and allow tourists there. Nonetheless, the sum of money received in the course of privatization is hard to predict in advance – that is the very reason why the EC denied this source of budget input.
Mr Saccomanni, on the contrary, believes that the Italian government can spend any amounts of budget money in order to meet EU rules. Otherwise, the country will be threatened by even a greater economic decline that will inflame Italians against the policy of austerity, which is opposed by many forces: right- and left-wing parties alike.
Spain was told by the EC that its draft budgetary 2014 plan had a big fiscal gap nearly impossible to eliminate but which should have already been narrowed down.
The EC had given the green light to France’s budget for 2014 but with certain stipulations! The European Commission warned that a 2014 budget shortfall needs to be reduced by lowering budget expenses in order to balance it by 2015. Yet no word was spoken of how it should be done: let the French government figure that out.
Waterfield finally reported that “The commission has also cautioned Finland, Malta and Luxembourg, asking the three countries to review their 2014 budgets to ensure that they meet euro-zone targets.” So – welcome to the brand new EU, where the decision to cut national budgets is made in Brussels only! Unfortunately, it is impossible to ignore EC recommendations. Today, only 4 EU countries – Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus – get aid from the European Financial Stability Facility and remain under the strictest control of Brussels. Be certain, the EC will take any measures to keep the list of aid recipients short.

After the meeting within the framework of intergovernmental commission presidents of Ukraine and Russia reached an agree...
19/12/2013

After the meeting within the framework of intergovernmental commission presidents of Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement about a $15 billion loan. How necessary was this loan in current economic situation? The Kiev Times asked the former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Vladimir Lanovoy.

- Such large loan puts the country in a political and economical dependency from the creditor.

- Why?
- Because during three years we will not be able to change monetary and trade balances of the country, and get enough earnings to pay back the loan at least partially. And in three years, Ukraine will be uncovered and barefoot, kneeling before Russia and waiting for the fatal verdict. We didn’t need the $15 billion – it is a servitude and dependence. Practically it means an advanced agreement for any offers and requests of Russian Federation.

- Russia will bring in money into Ukrainian economy by buying bonds.
- If Russia will buy government bonds then money will go to the state budget and thus will cover its deficit. But even $5 billion equals UAH40 billion and equals the total amount of the state budget! Does it mean we have 100% budget deficit? It is necessary to read the draft budget and see whether it assumes that the budget deficit will be covered by such loanable funds. If so, it would end in an abyss of reduced social benefits and repressed citizen's rights.

- But the gas price will be reduced, and businesses will be able to get more profits and create new workplaces.
- This is correct - for the large enterprises owned by our oligarchs. So it will be beneficial for oligarchs – they will get lower gas price, will profitably sell their goods on foreign markets, but also leave their money in their foreign accounts abroad.

- Is it accurate that from now onwards Ukraine will act on the global markets only under the direction of Russia?
- From now, without permission of Kremlin, we won’t be able to make a step in our foreign policy. I think that in all the integration processes, whether local (neighborhood relations) or global (association with EU), the Ukrainian government will not make a single move without Russian authorization.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/finances/292225-cherez-3-goda-budem-stoyat-na-kolenyax-pered-rf-eks-ministr-ekonomiki.html

The Tuesday session in Verkhovna Rada was highly anticipated, but did not occur. Even despite the fact that 258 deputies...
17/12/2013

The Tuesday session in Verkhovna Rada was highly anticipated, but did not occur. Even despite the fact that 258 deputies were registered, the parliamentary tribune remains blocked. However, it seems there are no preconditions for blocking it. The opposition says they have almost collected signatures under the draft law of the Communist faction about distrust of the government. Also, the draft law of the deputy Vladimir Yavorivskiy (“Batkivshchyna”) was introduced – a demand to the president about resignation of Prime Minister Mykola Azarov.

In addition, the opposition stated they have found certain articles in the Constitution, which allows a dismissal of the Cabinet of Ministers one by one. Deputy Aleksandr Stoyan (Party of Regions) declared that his faction has discussed the option of up to 90% government dismissal, by discussing each minister severally.

“It is convenient to the current authorities for the parliament not to function and for the state budget 2014 not to be approved. This way in January, February and March next year, when social benefits will not be paid, they would blame it on the opposition! Thus, regionals want to gamble with the population’s spirits and lift all responsibility about the non-approved state budget. Although the authorities are exactly the ones to be help responsible for it,” – said deputy Sergiy Mishchenko (non-factional).

The fact remains that current the Ukrainian parliament is not working.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/authority/291724-chto-to-ne-sroslos-parlament-snova-zablokirovan.html

The disturbances over the Ukraine-EU association agreement and free trade zone that haven’t been signed in Vilnius on No...
17/12/2013

The disturbances over the Ukraine-EU association agreement and free trade zone that haven’t been signed in Vilnius on November 27-28, 2013 go on for the fourth continuous week. But not many citizens of Ukraine remember where the European perspective of our country came from. How and why did it become a part of Ukrainian legislation?

"The agreement about partnership between Ukraine and the European Community and its Member States" was signed on June 11, 1994 and came into effect on March 1, 1998 and continues to operate until today. Only during the government of the current president Yanukovych there have been some changes made in the agreement in 2010 and 2011.

So, in 1994 there was an agreement signed between Ukraine and member state of “old EU”.

The most interesting part of the agreement is third section (articles 10-23) – “Trade of goods”. There is a reference to GATT - General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, which became a World Trade Organization in 1995. Ukraine became a member of WTO only in 2007, meaning that the agreement provided the trade rules in advance.

Well, clearly there was an agreement signed between Ukraine and EU for a period of 10 years, but no one has reported about the results of its implementation. And suddenly this agreement is being replaced with another one – about the Association and the free trade zone that happened to be more beneficial for the European side? But why today no one even remembers the previous Ukraine-EU agreement? And most importantly, how and who gained the most of out it?

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/authority/291530-pochemu-evropa-podmenila-dokumenty-o-sotrudnichestve-s-ukrainoj.html

The state budget for 2014 had been already registered on the website of the Verkhovna Rada on 14th of September 2013. Bu...
16/12/2013

The state budget for 2014 had been already registered on the website of the Verkhovna Rada on 14th of September 2013. But immediately it was sent for some kind of revision up to this date. The Cabinet of Ministers was supposed to send the budget to the Verkhovna Rada by now, but currently nobody knows whether it will work on 17th of December.

It’s clear now, looking at the political situation in Ukraine that the budget for 2014 will not be voted for until the end of this year. For that reason in January 2014 the country will be bound to operate under the budget of January 2013. And considering the long New Year and Christmas holidays, profitable part of the budget in January would be rather modest.

The major issue of the 2014 state budget for the Ukrainian government is a necessity of paying back $7,3 billion to the creditors. It would be only possible in case of an economic growth and if the export will boost and expand to any markets in any places of the world. And if for example markets of Customs Union will be closed for Ukrainian goods then the economy would suffer losses and the budget will not get a full amount of taxes and fees.

Another challenge is the increasing "black hole" called "Naftogaz". Once a highly profitable state company, now it is bankrupt, and its statutory fund is being replenished practically with “junk” securities. Deficit of "Naftogaz" for 2013 was confirmed mid-year at a level of $18 billion and tends to grow continuously. To eliminate this hole gas rates for the population and housing and utilities sector need to be increased, which the government so far cannot afford.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/authority/289961-evromajdan-nichtozhnyj-precedent-po-sravneniyu-s-byudzhetom-2014.html

During the EuroMaydan the capital city continues to live its usual life. The protests couldn’t prevent the small local b...
16/12/2013

During the EuroMaydan the capital city continues to live its usual life. The protests couldn’t prevent the small local businesses from operating on the central streets – smart entrepreneurs managed to come through barricades and sell coffee. Suppose, they make good income – it is always crowded near these mobile cafes, especially is such cold weather.

Who would have thought that among politicians that are addressing people from the stage and gathering audience practically non-stop, even actors masked as cartoon heroes are a success on the main street. “We have tripled the number of our clients. Protesters that made a long way to Kiev are rarely interested in taking pictures, but on the weekends citizens of Kiev come with children to see Maydan and also there are quite a lot of tourists - this is our clientage”, - says Mikhail dressed as a Mickey Mouse.

Another thriving business on Maydan – selling Ukrainian flags. “Blue-yellow “Ukraine” scarves are sold quickly as well and we urgently need to deliver a new batch”, - a street-seller comments on the latest “fashion” trends of EuroMaydan.

On the contrary, sales in the shopping centre “Globus” located right under the Independence Square suffer damage, including that it stinks of the smoke coming from the EuroMaydan “heating system”.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/society/290761-za-kogo-na-evromajdane-stoyat-mikki-maus-i-kung-fu-panda.html

The current by-election to the Verkhovna Rada will be influenced considerably by the political crisis situation, believe...
15/12/2013

The current by-election to the Verkhovna Rada will be influenced considerably by the political crisis situation, believes political scientist Vladimir Fesenko during the discussion with The Kiev Times reporter.

It is difficult to forecast the results, but opposition has all the chances of winning in all districts. “And Party of Regions will prevail in one or maximum two districts. For example, in Nikolaevs’ka oblast’, where most likely executive resources will be involved”, - said Fesenko.

The analyst did not predict how the winners would act once they get a mandate (joining an existing faction or staying non-factional). “The new deputies would take steps depending on further developments. I’m not ruling out the possibility of issues with the final vote count or during the election process. Personally, I don’t anticipate any peculiar consequences after this election”.

Fesenko criticizes a great number of candidates for the five vacant spots. “This is not an evidence of democracy. It only means that “dirty” election techniques are highly advanced (however, of course it’s preferably to have many candidates rather than one candidates running unopposed). Note that practically in all of the districts there’re many “duplicates”! It is not normal when one can change one’s name so quickly. This disgraceful practice has to end! Because it aims to confuse the electorate! I draw your attention to the fact that there are candidates with identical first, middle and last names!” – he said.

Link to the article in Russian: http://thekievtimes.ua/authority/290678-gryaznye-texnologii-etix-vyborov-sozdanie-dvojnikov-fesenko.html

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