01/03/2026
War in Iran threatens to destabilize Uganda’s economy through surging fuel and commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and reduced trade in the Middle East. Rising transportation costs are likely to cause inflation, increase food insecurity, and severely impact household income. The government is on alert, with 2026 reports highlighting efforts to evacuate citizens.
Key impacts include:
Economic & Fuel Crises: As global oil supply chains are disrupted, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz, Uganda expects a spike in pump prices. Despite having over 1 billion liters in reserves, the shocks could severely impact economic stability.
Trade Disruptions: A decline in trade with the Middle East is expected, potentially wiping out months of economic gains.
Citizen Safety: The government of Uganda has taken steps to evacuate citizens, including students and business people from Iran, following escalations, with many being rerouted through Turkey.
Security Precautions: Ugandans in the region have been advised to stay indoors and monitor media for updates.
Diplomatic Response: Uganda has urged restraint and scaled down its diplomatic presence in Tehran.
To cushion the economy, experts suggest that Uganda should prioritize fuel reserves and consider tax waivers on petroleum products
