Skywatch Weather Desk

20/07/2025

Another beautiful shelf cloud from Lexington, KY. Pic was taken yesterday (SATURDAY)

📸 Taylor Berryman

20/07/2025

A lightning strike was captured hitting a home in Conway, SC!

📷 Jen Madsen

20/07/2025

SUNDAY TROPICS UPDATE: WITH Bryan Norcross FRINGY DISTURBANCES TO KEEP AN EYE ON

The tropical disturbance that came off Africa last week is more than halfway to the Caribbean. It's not showing any signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has the chances in the low category that it will ever meet the requirements to be called a tropical depression.

It will be traveling over warm water in a somewhat conducive atmospheric environment, except that it's brushing up against extremely dry air. It's still possible that it could find a small pocket of conditions conducive to development over the next day or two, but it's unlikely.

On the current schedule, it will be in the vicinity of the Caribbean islands Wednesday or Thursday. The atmospheric pattern near and over the islands is forecast to be quite hostile, so even if it momentarily develops over the open ocean, it looks likely to be a weak system, probably just a moisture surge, when it passes into the Caribbean Sea.

There's no indication that this system would have time or the atmospheric support to become terribly strong.

It's been unusually dry across the tropics, so some rain over the islands would be beneficial.
There is nothing imminent elsewhere in the tropics, but another rain-making front will straddle North Florida from the northern Gulf to off the Southeast coast later this week.

This is a similar scenario to what we went through last week that generated the tropical disturbance in the Gulf. In fact, a case can be made that a piece of last week's disturbance will be part of this one.

Like last week, a strong high-pressure system to the north - this one will be the heat-dome high producing extremely hot weather across parts of the Mid-South and Midwest - will provide the steering for any disturbed weather that develops along the old front. The flow around that high will push the moisture and any disturbance that might form from east to west across Florida and into the northern Gulf.

There's nothing to look at now, and there's no indication that an organized system will develop, but more rounds of heavy rain are possible in Florida and along the Gulf coast.

Broadly speaking, the tropics are still shut down. But that doesn't mean low-end systems won't try to spin up on the fringes of the big high-pressure system covering the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and most of the Gulf. We'll keep half an eye on things, but there's nothing of concern.

19/07/2025

Tropics update for Saturday -

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days as the system moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

By next Wednesday or Thursday, the system will be approaching the Caribbean islands. The atmospheric conditions are forecast to be hostile at that time, and it appears unlikely that the islands would be affected by more than a moisture surge. The Caribbean Sea itself is totally unsupportive of tropical systems at the moment.

This system has found a tiny slice of atmosphere where it has a low chance to organize. Overall, the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf continue to be hostile to tropical development. The tropical belt is likely to stay that way for the rest of the month, at least. Although, as this system shows, small pockets of reasonably conducive atmospheric conditions can still allow systems to at least think about making a name for themselves.

19/07/2025

Lightning yesterday (Friday) This from Socastee in Horry County/Myrtle Beach

📸Jess Fisher.

19/07/2025

A dangerous, long-duration heat wave will impact the Southeast, Mid-South, and Midwest through late July. Extreme heat, high humidity, and little overnight relief pose serious health risks. Stay cool, hydrated, and informed also A sufficient amount of tropical moisture will move northeastward, bringing chances for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the Midwest into the Tennessee Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic.

19/07/2025

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for gradual development late this weekend through early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

18/07/2025

Dangerous heat in the southeast on Saturday will begin to build into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Midwest by early in the upcoming workweek. Major and Extreme HeatRisk are designated for conditions that impact not only vulnerable populations but also anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

18/07/2025

The latest on the tropics with Bryan Norcross TROPICS UPDATE: LOUISIANA FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES AS THE TROPICS REMAIN DRY

What’s left of the tropical disturbance we were following—recall it was officially tagged Invest 93-L—is creeping across the southern part of Louisiana. The flood threat continues for the southern parishes of Louisiana and southern Mississippi as well.

Up to a foot of rain has already fallen east and southeast of Lafayette, Louisiana, and a few more inches will likely fall today from slow-moving tropical downpours that are still rotating around the dying disturbance.

Stay in touch with the latest information from the local National Weather Service offices, and be aware that some flash flooding is still possible.

The tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean remain exceptionally dry. Saharan dust covers much of the tropical belt, and high pressure dominates, which has a drying effect as well.

Tropical disturbances are moving off Africa, and the ocean waters between the Caribbean and Africa are warming. The air is so dry, however, that systems can't get going. This pattern is not uncommon in mid-July, and is expected to continue through next week, at least.

The large-scale atmospheric pattern looks to become more conducive for tropical development in early August, but we'll see. In the meantime, another system like this week's disturbance could develop in the northern Gulf or off the Southeast coast, but nothing is expected in the deep tropics.

18/07/2025

18/07/2025

Several areas will experience chances for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk for excessive rainfall over the Central Gulf Coast, Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Midwest, the Great Basin and southern New Mexico/southeast Arizona.

17/07/2025

3PM CDT 7/17/25 Situation Update: New Orleans metro areas Multiple rounds of heavy showers/storms continues along/N of I-10/12 including the Baton Rouge metro area in association with a weak tropical low. Watch for flash flooding in these and surrounding areas thru this evening.

Newest model guidance suggests the potential for more rounds of rain storms to re-develop along coastal SE LA, that could move north early Friday, delivering another risk for flash flooding. A Flood watch remains in effect for all of SE LA and SE MS through Friday Night.

Stay Weather Aware and remember, NEVER drive through flooded roadways!