
10/23/2019
There is a new area to watch in the Atlantic basin, currently with a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days over the western Gulf of Mexico. www.hurrtracker.com
These hurricane updates are brought to you by the official "Hurricane Tracker" app. Track storms and waves at www.hurrtracker.com
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These hurricane updates are brought to you by the official "Hurricane Tracker" app. Track storms and waves at www.hurrtracker.com with the most popular Hurricane Tracker ever! 400K+ users!
There is a new area to watch in the Atlantic basin, currently with a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days over the western Gulf of Mexico. www.hurrtracker.com
The gulf disturbance has been upgraded to Tropical Storm #Nestor. Tropical storm warnings in effect along portions of the eastern Gulf coast.
Breaking-Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 has formed in the southwestern gulf and will track towards the northeastern gulf where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. This system will likely become Nestor later today. Coastal storm surge flooding is the biggest risk, with winds gusting 40-60 mph & heavy rain. Track with our Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 has formed in the southwestern gulf and will track towards the northeastern gulf where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. www.hurrtracker.com
There is a 50-50 shot Invest #96L develops into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days over the Gulf of Mexico. At the very least, heavy rains are ahead for the Gulf coast. Track at www.hurrtracker.com.
NEW: The National Hurricane Center designates the area to watch off the Florida east coast as Invest #92L. This storm system will track toward the Northeast then is expected to stall off the coast, causing some heavy rain and strong winds across the region. www.hurrtracker.com
NEW: There are 3 areas to watch for potential tropical development within the next 5 days, which includes Invest #91L. All 3 systems have a low to moderate chance of forming but land impacts are not expected. www.hurrtracker.com
#Karen remains poorly organized over the eastern Caribbean Sea. It will be moving north, and will make landfall on Puerto Rico as a weak tropical storm on Tuesday. Heavy rain and some gusty winds will the main risks. Then as Karen moves north of the islands, it will begin to slow down as high pressure builds to the north, which may allow for the storm to become to track west in the general direction of the Bahamas and US. Lots of uncertainty remains at this time, however. Track Karen in-depth at www.hurrtracker.com.
Tropical Depression 13 has just formed in the far E Atlantic and should become our next tropical storm and hurricane. The next name on the list is #Lorenzo. We will monitor this system, but it should re-curve into the north Atlantic and not affect land. www.hurrtracker.com
Models *currently* develop a strong ridge of high pressure north of #Karen once the storm is north of the Carib. This means there's a possibility Karen could be forced west towards the U.S. Obviously, still time for the forecast to change. Stay tuned www.hurrtracker.com
Invest #90L near Africa is quickly becoming better organized & has a 90% chance of becoming the next tropical cyclone. This system will track west-northwest over the next several days. Long range guidance hints it may stay out at sea, but lots of time to watch this one.
Tropical Storm #Karen formed early this am just east of the Windward Islands. A TS warning is in effect for Trinidad/Tobago & St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Karen is forecasted to turn N & track near Puerto Rico mid-week. Track with Hurricane Tracker at www.hurrtracker.com
The only active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic right now is Hurricane #Jerry. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusty rain bands will be possible through tonight across portions of the Leeward Islands. Jerry is then expected to turn north, well east of the Bahamas but will head in the general direction of Bermuda through early-next week. Track Jerry in-depth at www.hurrtracker.com.
Lots of storms to watch in the Atlantic basin, including Tropical Depression #Imedla, Tropical Storm #Jerry, and Hurricane #Humberto. Track all of these storms in-depth at www.hurrtracker.com.
Newly formed #TD11 will slowly move into SE Texas and with it comes the threat for flooding. Some slight strengthening into a minimal tropical storm is possible before it moves ashore tomorrow. A TS Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar.
Breaking: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven located near the Texas coast at 12 PM CDT. www.hurrtracker.com
Invest #98L just off the upper Texas coast now has a 50% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression in the next day before it moves ashore. Regardless, a heavy rain event is setting up for portions of eastern Texas.
Newly formed #TD10 is forecasted to become TS #Imelda within 24 hours and a hurricane by Friday. At this time, it is forecasted to pass just north of the islands but the track will need to be watched as any slight deviation to the left could prompt watches or warnings. Track this system in depth now with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com
The vigorous tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles will be #TD10 as of 11AM EDT. This system is currently not a threat to land, but will be monitored.
There are 2 areas to watch for potential tropical development in the Atlantic basin: one over the Gulf of Mexico with a 10% chance and the other over the Main Development Region with a 70% chance of formation within the next 5 days. www.hurrtracker.com
Tropical Storm #Humberto is exiting the Bahamas as it moves north before taking an eastward turn, which is when it is expected to intensify into a hurricane. Bermuda will need to monitor the progress of this storm for potential impacts. Track Humberto in-depth at www.hurrtracker.com.
There is the risk for a potential landfall this weekend on the east coast of Florida, hence the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches. #PTC9 is expected to become Tropical Storm #Humberto later today or by tomorrow as it tracks over the Bahamas. Track at www.hurrtracker.com.
JUST IN: The National Hurricane Center designated Invest 95L as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine near the Bahamas. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. Heavy rains and gusty winds will be the main risks, but then Florida and the Southeast will need to monitor the progress of this storm for potential impacts. Track this storm in-depth at www.hurrtracker.com.
There has been a big shift in the model guidance overnight, bringing Invest #95L toward the Bahamas and Florida. The Gulf Coast remains at risk for impacts, but there is an increasing threat for Florida and the Southeast. The National Hurricane Center is now saying there is a high chance this becomes a tropical cyclone around this weekend. hurrtracker.com
The tropical wave just off the coast of Africa will quickly move west & has a 40% chance of development. Interests in the eastern Caribbean should monitor. www.hurrtracker.com
Update: The National Hurricane Center has increased the developmental risk of Invest #95L to 70% chance within the next 5 days. Track #95L in depth with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com
We have issued low 5 day alert levels for most of FL & a portion of the Bahamas as Invest #95L may try to develop into a depression or weak tropical storm this weekend. Stay alert to the forecast if you are in the region. There's currently a 60% chance of tropical development. Track #95L in depth now with Hurricane Tracker at www.hurrtracker.com
From the Bahamas through South Florida and along the Gulf Coast of the US, impacts are possible from Invest #95L. The National Hurricane Center gives this cluster of thunderstorms a 60% chance of tropical development within the next 5 days. www.hurrtracker.com
Invest #95L located across the SE Bahamas has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. This system will track generally towards south FL & the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to stay weak as of now. www.hurrtracker.com
Today is the average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. We are watching 3 areas of disturbed weather for possible tropical development, 1 of which is currently threatening the US. hurrtracker.com
The Atlantic basin remains active with 2 areas to watch. Invest #94L will be worth watching as it tracks toward the Lesser Antilles while a different disturbance threatens the Bahamas with a 20% chance of development. hurrtracker.com
Invest 94L in the far eastern Atlantic has a high chance (70%) of development according to the NHC. The eastern Caribbean will need to monitor this system as it will generally head west-west northwest. www.hurrtracker.com
The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to the North
Carolina/Virginia border, including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. www.hurrtracker.com
September is the most active month for tropical cyclone activity. We are currently monitoring 5 different tropical disturbances, but only #Dorian threatens the US at this time. hurrtracker.com
The NHC’s latest track is now closer to the SC/NC coastlines. New hurricane watches and warnings have been issued. Track #Dorian in depth at www.hurrtracker.com
#TD8 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic and should become the next tropical storm. This system is not a threat to land. www.hurrtracker.com
Hurricane #Dorian continues to weaken due to increasing dry air and upwelling, which is the cooling of sea surface temperatures. Dorian is now moving northwest at 2 mph and away from the Bahamas. There have been numerous updates to the current tropical alerts in effect for the US, including the Hurricane Watch being extended further up the Southeast coast. There is a growing consensus among the modeling that Dorian will remain off the Florida coast but will approach the Carolinas and possibly make landfall near the Outer Banks. Landfall or not, flooding, strong winds, and storm surge are all expected for the Carolina coastline. Track with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com.
Current forecasted rain totals: 2-4" inches plus isolated higher totals along the east FL coast & SE GA. 6" or more in the eastern Carolinas with some areas in NC receiving 10" inches or more. This could change based on the track. #Dorian
Peak wind gusts as of now for the coastal areas of the Carolinas will be over hurricane force based on the latest track. Higher in NC vs SC and #Dorian will get closer to NC and possibly make an NC landfall. www.hurrtracker.com
For the east FL coast, wind gusts will generally be 45-55 mph range with occasional higher gusts as #Dorian passes to the east east. Of course these could increase if there's a track further west towards the FL coast, but that is not expected at this time. www.hurrtracker.com
Another depression is likely to form in the Atlantic later today. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better defined. This system will likely track into the north Atlantic, posing no threat to land.
Hurricane #Dorian is now a strong, Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 155 mph as it moves west at 1 mph over Grand Bahamas. The updated forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center has most of the US East Coast at risk for impacts from Dorian. The big question remains in the short term of when Dorian will turn north and how close to the Florida and Southeast coast it will get. This entire region needs to monitor the forecast and follow evacuation orders if issued. Even if no landfall occurs, heavy rain which may cause flooding is expected as well as storm surge and strong, gusty winds. The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, the Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia coast to the Savannah River, the Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, and the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound in Georgia. Track with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com.
Here’s the latest NHC forecast map with the updated watches and warnings. Hurricane warnings issued (red) for portions of the FL coast. #Dorian www.hurrtracker.com
Hurricane #Dorian is now an extremely-dangerous, Category 5 hurricane with winds up to 180 mph -- and it's still strengthening. The National Hurricane Center is calling for up to 18-23 feet of storm surge for the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas as the storm nears landfall. Catastrophic damage is expected for the northern Bahamian islands.
In terms of the US, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, a Storm Surge Watch has also been issued from north of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia/Brevard County Line, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. The exact track of Dorian remains somewhat uncertain, with any shift of the west having the potential to bring significant impacts to the east coast of Florida. The entire Floridian and Southeast coast needs to continue to monitor the latest forecasts for Dorian. Track with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com.
BREAKING: #Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph sustained winds. The eyewall of this catastrophic hurricane is about to hit the Abaco Islands with devastating winds. Track with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com
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Today is the average peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. We are watching 3 areas of disturbed weather for possible tropical development, 1 of which is currently threatening the US. hurrtracker.com
This year's Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active. Here's a video, courtesy of NOAA, showing all of of the storms from satellite to cap up the season.
Storm surge flooding taking over this parking lot in Biloxi, MS ahead of #Nate's landfall. 🎥: Mike Theiss
Some minor coastal flooding due to storm surge is already being felt on the Outer Banks. #Maria 🎥: @DHurstWNCN/Twitter
Significant beach erosion has allowed for the ocean water to reach these elevated homes in Scituate, MA. #Jose 🎥: Brad Tatum
Incredible video from earlier today of the strong winds and flooded road in San Juan, Puerto Rico. #Maria 🎥: @TheHungryCondor/Twitter
Here is this afternoon's run of the EURO model (the most accurate model). It is forecasting a low to develop off the SC coastline SUN/MON & then drift SW towards the FL E coast before heading NNE towards the Carolinas. Keep in mind this is just one model run & we are still a few days out. The NHC has a 20% chance of development at this time. All the details are in our app at www.hurrtracker.com with frequent updates as new information comes in.
Quick video update on Invest 90L: www.hurrtracker.com
Invest 90L Video Update: www.hurrtracker.com
Latest satellite loop of the Gulf. Moisture is increasing & will head towards FL through the week. Just a trough of low pressure right now. Just a matter of time until we get a better idea as to if anything will come out of this. Full discussion by our met in the Hurricane Tracker App www.hurrtracker.com
We have been discussing the potential for development for days now. We are starting to see the beginnings of the mess that is to come this week in the Gulf. Starting to see some spin in the mid/upper levels with lots of moisture aimed towards the eastern Gulf. Just a matter of time until get a better idea as to if anything will come out of this. Full discussion by our met in the Hurricane Tracker App www.hurrtracker.com
This afternoon's run of the GFS model continues to show a strong TS developing in early June & headed generally towards South FL. No model can accurately predict storms this far out, but it is something we will watch & post daily updates in the model watch section of the Hurricane Tracker app. www.hurrtracker.com iPhone App: http://bit.ly/11l2je6 iPad App: http://bit.ly/14DmFkK MAC/PC/ANDROID: http://www.hurrtracker.com/Subscriber_Info.html
#Humberto forecast to become a hurr by 2PM ET tomorrow. Would allow record to stand. The latest date ever for the first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin is Sept 11. Looks like 2013 will beat that by one day and the record will stand. Track Humberto with our app at www.hurrtracker.com
Here is the latest look at EX-Gabrielle. You can clearly see a cyclonic twist (red area in video) and that it is trying really hard. However, upper level winds are screaming from SW to NE shearing the thunderstorms & hampering development. #goodnews www.hurrtracker.com
Here is an animation of the 12Z GFS model developing the wave coming off of Africa this weekend into early next week. www.hurrtracker.com
Wave over west Africa appears to be getting better organized today. Will watch for development this weekend as it tracks west. Get the app at www.hurrtracker.com
Appears low pressure is trying to spin up with Invest 99L right as it is moving ashore...needed 12 more hours. Still, heavy rains in store for the central Mexico Gulf coast. www.hurrtracker.com
For those who don't have the app, you can see how #97L is tightening up and building deeper convection as it heads WNW. As a whole, system is improving. www.hurrtracker.com
We have been focused on Invest #97L, but something is trying to brew in the NW Caribbean Sea. Appears a low pressure is trying to form just SE of Cozumel. If development occurs (30% according to the NHC) it appears at this time it would head west or west-northwest towards NE Mexico. We will keep you updated. www.hurrtracker.com
Here is a closeup view of the wave in the CATL we will watch for development early next week in the Eastern Caribbean. There is definitely a low level circulation, but thunderstorms are being sheared off to the NE. www.hurrtracker.com
We've got our eyes on an interesting area of disturbed weather in the west Atlantic that has flared up during the past 18 hours east of the Caribbean Islands. It does have an associated 1011 mb low & conditions seem favorable. We will see if the NHC mentions it later today. No model support. Just something to keep an eye on out there. www.hurrtracker.com
We likely already have a TS (Fernand) in the southernmost Gulf of Mexico headed towards the Veracruz, MX area. Recon aircraft departing in 30 mins to confirm this. 50-60 mph winds & heavy rains will be the main threats through tomorrow down there. www.hurrtracker.com
Here is a 5 day loop of the Saharan air layer (dust) moving west off of Africa & into the eastern ATL.
Here is a 48 hour loop of the dry air over the Atlantic. You can see exactly why Erin collapsed and why 94L won't develop. One can argue the dry air across the central Atlantic. may be lessening. Blue areas depict the driest air. www.hurrtracker.com
Video update on TD Dorian. Follow in real time with our app at http://bit.ly/19CAgjS.#dorian
Here is a look at #Dorian using the new design on The Hurricane Tracker app. This is the iPhone version, but the same design applies to the iPad app and the Web version. Available at www.hurrtracker.com
Quick #Dorian video update. Follow in real time with our app at http://bit.ly/19CAgjS. Share this video with your feeds. Thanks!
Here is the latest visible animation of 91L (Dorian)...Come track at www.hurrtracker.com
Here is a video of Tropical Depression Flossie as it tracked through Hawaii from the Hurricane Tracker app www.hurrtracker.com
A weak upper level anticyclone has developed over Ex-Dorian which helps a system with its outflow. Looking better for re-development. Recon may fly the system today. This storm may not be quite done yet. We are very impressed by satellite trends today. Take a look below. Follow at www.hurrtracker.com
Invest 95L in the east Atlantic looking good this morning-a nice circulation. Looks promising as of now...Keep an eye out if you have interests in the Lesser Antilles. Track at www.hurrtracker.com
Who can see the slight twist/spin occurring now in the western Gulf of Mexico? Hit "Like" if you can see it. This may be the beginnings of a low trying to form. We'll see...www.hurrtracker.com
Here is an upper level low we are watching. It is not forecasted to develop by any of the models, but it is worth watching as sometimes they can transition from the upper levels to the lower levels. A few days ago some models were trying to develop this. Remember, for some to become a tropical cyclone is has to be at the "surface". Just something to watch as it moves west. www.hurrtracker.com
TS Dalia video update: www.hurrtracker.com
For the price of a cup of coffee...Check out our "Model Watch" feature in our app available at www.hurrtracker.com We think this is a valuable tool for those who have to deal with these systems and a lot of time and effort goes into this. Best place to get model info daily...Information in the video below :)
Long range video outlook for the Gulf. Not a forecast, just showing you the long range models. Track storms at www.hurrtracker.com Twitter: @hurrtrackerapp
Here is a quick video update regarding the upper level low in the eastern Gulf today and potential development from it. www.hurrtracker.com @hurrtrackerapp
3 minute video update on the CMC model that has been consistent with Gulf of Mexico development next week. We are not making a forecast here, we are simply looking at one model and the possibility of a system around July 4th. We hope it is wrong! www.hurrtracker.com to follow the tropics
Tropical Storm Cosme in the Pacific has become the second Hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season. 45 second video look at Hurricane Cosme.
TS Cosme 90 second video update using the Hurricane Tracker Web App. Get it here: www.hurrtracker.com
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