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TMC Weather, LLC Chief Forecaster TMC Weather Media Group | Bringing you the most accurate & fun forecasts

12.17.2025 7:35AMNICE TODAY, THINGS CHANGE TOMORROW!!Wednesday turns noticeably milder across central Maryland, with aft...
12/17/2025

12.17.2025 7:35AM
NICE TODAY, THINGS CHANGE TOMORROW!!

Wednesday turns noticeably milder across central Maryland, with afternoon highs rising into the mid to upper 50s, especially east of the mountains. A strong cold front then approaches late Thursday night into early Friday, bringing a fast-moving QLCS line of storms through the region Friday morning. This line will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and possibly a few rumbles of thunder as it sweeps west to east before sunrise.

Strong winds are the main concern with this system, as gusts of 40–50 mph are possible both with the QLCS and behind the front. Temperatures will peak early Friday morning, then drop quickly as colder air pours in, while windy conditions persist through much of the day. This is shaping up to be a wind-driven system, so be sure to secure loose outdoor items and holiday decorations, with more updates to come as timing and impacts are refined.

12.15.2025 8:30 PMDANGEROUSLY COLD OVERNIGHTClear and calm conditions settle in tonight as high pressure remains in cont...
12/16/2025

12.15.2025 8:30 PM
DANGEROUSLY COLD OVERNIGHT

Clear and calm conditions settle in tonight as high pressure remains in control. It will be very cold, with temperatures dropping into the teens for most areas and low 20s closer to the Bay. Clouds may linger early, and while a stray flurry can’t be ruled out, most locations stay dry. Bundle up for a cold night and an icy start by morning

-TC

12.15.2025 7PMLight, isolated snow flurries are moving through northeastern Harford County. Any flurries that briefly re...
12/15/2025

12.15.2025 7PM

Light, isolated snow flurries are moving through northeastern Harford County. Any flurries that briefly reach the surface are not expected to produce additional accumulation on existing snowfall.

-TC

12.15.2025 1:45PMA strong storm system will move through late Thursday night into Friday, bringing a round of heavy rain...
12/15/2025

12.15.2025 1:45PM

A strong storm system will move through late Thursday night into Friday, bringing a round of heavy rain and very gusty winds to central Maryland. A fast-moving line of showers pushes through early Friday, with wind gusts potentially reaching 40–50 mph as it passes.

Behind the front, colder air rushes in and it stays windy through much of the day, with frequent gusts of 35–45 mph possible. Temperatures will fall quickly after the rain ends, adding to the raw feel.

Make sure to secure loose outdoor items and holiday decorations, and be prepared for difficult travel during the morning commute due to heavy rain and strong winds.

12.15.2025 10:20 AMWe are starting the day very cold across central Maryland, with temperatures in the teens and 20s and...
12/15/2025

12.15.2025 10:20 AM

We are starting the day very cold across central Maryland, with temperatures in the teens and 20s and wind chills in the single digits. Despite some sunshine, it stays cold all day, with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 20s to near 30°.

Winds are gusty early, adding to the bite, but gradually ease through the afternoon. A stray flurry can’t be ruled out in far northern Maryland, though most areas stay dry. Another very cold night follows, with temperatures dropping sharply after sunset.

12/15/2025

Thank you all for trusting me to be your guided source for this winter system that impacted us this weekend. As expected with a setup like this, some areas ended up overperforming while others underperformed, but I worked hard to provide the most accurate and timely updates possible as the event unfolded.

If any part of my forecast was off, I’ll always admit it and learn from it. Transparency and honesty matter to me, and forecasting is a constant process of improvement. Moving forward, I’m committed to continuing to refine my approach and provide better, clearer live coverage during future systems. I truly appreciate everyone’s continued trust and support. Without EACH and EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU, I wouldn’t be where I am today!

SCHOOL ALERT: Baltimore County Public Schools. (MD) Schools will be on a 2-HOUR DELAY for Monday, December. 15th, 2025.
12/14/2025

SCHOOL ALERT: Baltimore County Public Schools. (MD) Schools will be on a 2-HOUR DELAY for Monday, December. 15th, 2025.

12.13.2025 10:40 PMA more defined snow band is now setting up from Frederick through Westminster, Towson, and into Harfo...
12/14/2025

12.13.2025 10:40 PM

A more defined snow band is now setting up from Frederick through Westminster, Towson, and into Harford and Cecil Counties. This is exactly where we expected the higher-end totals, and this band will continue to drift slowly southeast over the next few hours.

Areas under the darker blues will see the quickest accumulation, while locations just outside the band may only see lighter bursts at times. This sharp gradient is why totals will vary a lot over short distances tonight.

If you’re along or just northwest of I-95, expect steady snow and slick roads to develop quickly. Farther south toward Howard, Anne Arundel, and Montgomery Counties, lighter snow is beginning to fill in and will increase shortly.

12.13.2025 5:45PMFINAL SNOWFALL TOTALSThe latest model runs this afternoon have continued to trend slightly higher with ...
12/13/2025

12.13.2025 5:45PM
FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS

The latest model runs this afternoon have continued to trend slightly higher with snowfall totals, and the upper atmosphere is looking more supportive for stronger lift and better snowfall rates overnight. Because of that, confidence has increased in a narrow band of heavier snow setting up somewhere near the I-95 corridor.

Most of the region will still fall within the coating to 2 inch and 2 to 4 inch ranges, but a focused zone of 3 to 5 inches (and isolated higher amounts) is becoming more likely across central and northeast Maryland. The exact placement of this band will depend on where the best upper-level energy aligns overnight, but trends have been slowly shifting toward the Baltimore–Harford–Cecil corridor.

Snow begins this evening, becomes moderate to heavy at times overnight, and ends near sunrise Sunday. With cold air in place, roads will become slick quickly once snow begins.

I will keep monitoring the short-range guidance, but overall the setup in the upper atmosphere continues to improve for higher snowfall potential along I-95. Stay tuned for updates tonight.

-TC

12/13/2025

New Snowfall Map Coming Soon! Hint: Good news for snow lovers!!

The BMET Meter says we’re at Stage 2 (2–4”) tonight.Translation: don’t fight someone over bread, but maybe don’t wear sn...
12/13/2025

The BMET Meter says we’re at Stage 2 (2–4”) tonight.
Translation: don’t fight someone over bread, but maybe don’t wear sneakers on untreated sidewalks either. Snow moves in overnight with slick roads likely by morning.

12.13.2025 9:45 AMWEEKEND SNOW SYSTEM UPDATE - UPDATE 1There haven’t been many major changes to the forecast since yeste...
12/13/2025

12.13.2025 9:45 AM
WEEKEND SNOW SYSTEM UPDATE - UPDATE 1

There haven’t been many major changes to the forecast since yesterday, but today’s model runs continue to show two clear sides to the story. Some guidance favors the heaviest snow northwest of I-95, while other models place it along and just southeast of I-95. Because of this split, I decided to take a middle-ground approach for this update.

Widespread snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for most areas east of Frederick, while locations west of Frederick will likely see an inch or less. There is also a narrow band of heavier totals, likely in the 3 to 5 inch range, that is expected to set up somewhere in central or northeast Maryland. Most of the data suggests this band will form close to the I-95 corridor, though the exact placement remains uncertain and could shift slightly north or south.

Snow is expected to begin across northern Maryland between 9 and 11 PM tonight before spreading southward into central and eastern Maryland. As the band develops, snow may become moderate to heavy at times, with brief periods of snowfall rates near one inch per hour. The entire system will move through quickly, with snow ending around sunrise Sunday morning.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 8 PM this evening through 7 AM Sunday for much of the region, including central Maryland, northern Maryland, northeastern Maryland, D.C., and northern Virginia. Roads will become slick overnight as temperatures stay cold enough for quick accumulation.

Overall, most of the region will see a light to moderate snowfall, with a narrow corridor of heavier totals near I-95. I will continue to post updates as new data arrives.

LESS THAN 11 HOURS UNTIL ❄️🚂

-TC

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