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TMC Weather, LLC, Baltimore, MD (2025)

08/20/2025

08.20.2025 2 PM
FLOODING CONCERN

This map shows the areas most at risk for flooding between Thursday and Friday. The red zone (southern Anne Arundel County and nearby tidal waters) faces the highest risk of significant flooding. This is where the combination of incoming tides, strong water push from the Chesapeake Bay, and heavy rainfall will overlap, making flooding almost certain in low-lying areas. Roads near the shoreline could be underwater, and neighborhoods right along tidal rivers and creeks are especially vulnerable.

The orange zone (Baltimore City, Dundalk, Towson, and surrounding areas) faces an elevated flooding risk. Here, urban drainage issues make flooding worse because heavy rainfall runs off quickly, overwhelming storm drains. Add in higher tides, and you’ll likely see standing water on streets, flash flooding in poor drainage areas, and some tidal flooding along the Inner Harbor and Patapsco River.

The yellow zones (Harford County tidal areas and parts of southern Maryland) are at limited risk, but that doesn’t mean no flooding. Minor tidal flooding is possible along rivers like the Bush and Gunpowder, as well as localized street flooding during heavier downpours. These areas aren’t expected to see widespread problems, but the water rise will still be noticeable, especially at high tide.

Why This Is Happening:
This flooding threat comes from a combination of heavy rain and tidal influence from the Bay. Tropical systems offshore (or moisture pulled from them) can shift winds so that water piles up in the Chesapeake Bay. When this happens at the same time as high tide, water has fewer outlets to escape, which increases the risk of flooding. Even without a direct hit from a storm, tropical systems often disrupt pressure patterns, leading to stronger easterly winds that push water inland.

The other half of the equation is rainfall. Tropical moisture streaming into the Mid-Atlantic creates heavier, longer-lasting downpours. When this falls over urban areas like Baltimore or Annapolis, water drains slowly, backing up onto roads. If rainfall occurs near high tide, water levels rise faster and stick around longer.

Timing and Impacts:
The greatest flood risk is expected between Thursday and Friday, when the strongest moisture feed and highest tidal cycles line up. This does not mean everyone will flood, but it does mean sensitive areas will see problems first—places right along the water, roads that usually take on water during storms, and storm drain spots in the city that clog easily.

This is not a tornado or damaging wind setup the primary threat is water. It’s not the kind of event that produces sudden violent weather, but it is the type of setup where slow, steady rises in water levels can cause just as much disruption.

08/20/2025

08.20.2025 12PM
COOL DOWN FOR THE FINAL WEEK OF AUGUST?

When we talk about big weather shifts in late summer, hurricanes are often the hidden “pattern changers.” A hurricane doesn’t just bring rain and wind to its immediate area it actually disrupts the atmosphere on a much larger scale. Think of a tropical cyclone as a giant pump: on its west side, it pulls down cooler, drier Canadian air, while on its east side, it lifts warm tropical air north into the Atlantic. Once that storm exits, it reshuffles the jet stream and carves out a trough over the eastern U.S. A trough is a dip in the jet stream that acts like a delivery system for cooler air masses out of Canada. That’s exactly what the NOAA 6–10 Day Temperature Outlook is highlighting: a very strong probability of below-normal temperatures from the Midwest through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast between August 25–29. The darker the blue shading, the higher the chance those areas will run well below average, and for Maryland, Pennsylvania, and surrounding states, the signal is pretty strong.

Now, looking at the individual model maps helps us drill down into the details. These aren’t showing actual temperatures, but temperature anomalies which means how far above or below average the temperatures are expected to be for that time of year. The GFS model shows the most aggressive cool down, with central Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania projected at -8°F to -12°F below average. If normal highs are in the mid-80s this time of year, that would mean afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 70s, and mornings that could feel crisp for late August. The ECMWF model also agrees with the cool down but is a little less extreme, showing most of our area running -5°F to -7°F below average. That would still deliver highs in the upper 70s to low 80s—noticeably cooler than the muggy 90s we’ve been used to. The GEM model supports the same overall idea, with -5°F to -8°F anomalies, showing broad agreement across three independent global models. Anytime multiple models agree this far out, confidence grows that the pattern change is real.

What this all means is that once the hurricane clears out, it won’t just end the stormy period it will flip the switch on the atmosphere. The jet stream will dip, cooler Canadian air will spill southward, and humidity levels will drop. This type of pattern often lingers for several days because the trough “locks in” over the East Coast, preventing hot air from returning right away. For our region, it points to the first genuine taste of September: cooler afternoons, lower humidity, and refreshing mornings. It’s not the start of fall yet, but it will certainly feel like a break from summer. This is a textbook example of how a tropical system can trigger a large-scale reset in the weather pattern, and the model maps are all giving us a preview of that shift.

08/20/2025

08.20.2025 10AM
HURRICANE ERIN IMPACTS FOR MARYLAND

Hurricane Erin remains a powerful hurricane well offshore in the western Atlantic. The official track keeps Erin curving north and eventually east into the open Atlantic, well away from the U.S. East Coast. This means there will be NO direct hurricane impacts for Maryland, Delaware, or Pennsylvania. To be very clear: there is no threat of tornadoes, no hurricane-force winds inland, and no storm surge for the I-95 corridor. The main concerns are tied to Erin’s offshore circulation, which is generating large swells, strong rip currents, gusty winds, and higher-than-normal tides along the Mid-Atlantic beaches.

Surf & Rip Currents
Beginning midweek and peaking Thursday into Friday, Erin will drive long-period swells into the beaches, producing 6–9 foot breakers in Ocean City, Rehoboth, Bethany, and Fenwick Island. These waves will look impressive, but they also create extremely dangerous rip currents. Even experienced swimmers could quickly be pulled into life-threatening situations. Red flags and “No Swimming” advisories are likely to be posted. Visitors should respect these warnings—conditions may appear inviting, but the surf will be deceptive and powerful.

Tides & Flooding
With swells piling water against the coast, tides will run above normal. Forecasts for the Ocean City Inlet show water levels topping 4.8 feet at high tide on Thursday, which is just above the minor flood stage of 4 feet. This means minor tidal flooding is likely, especially in low-lying coastal areas such as beach parking lots, access points, and back-bay waters. This flooding will be brief but could cause issues around times of high tide. The record tide for Ocean City is 6.1 ft, so this event is far below that, but it will still be enough for nuisance flooding.

Inland Conditions
Away from the beaches, inland areas across Maryland and south-central Pennsylvania will not see hurricane impacts. Instead, Erin’s offshore circulation will work with high pressure to the north to create a tight pressure gradient. This will funnel gusty easterly winds into the region, keeping skies cloudy, cool, and unsettled. Winds will not reach damaging levels inland, but gusts near the Chesapeake Bay and coastal areas will be noticeable. Light showers, drizzle, and heavy clouds will be common, especially east of I-95, but widespread heavy rain is not expected inland. West of I-95, drier but still cloudy conditions will dominate.

08/20/2025

08.20.2025 07AM
THINGS TURN QUICKLY TOMORROW

Today starts off on a cool and comfortable note with morning lows in the upper 60s. Expect mostly cloudy skies around sunrise, but clouds will thin through the morning, allowing for more breaks of sunshine by midday. Temperatures climb steadily into the 70s by late morning and push into the low to mid-80s during the afternoon.

By early afternoon (2–4 PM), highs peak near 83–84°, which is very seasonable for late August. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme, keeping the day feeling warm but not oppressive. Winds will remain out of the east, running around 10–15 mph with a few occasional gusts, especially near the Bay. These breezes are tied to the offshore circulation of Hurricane Erin and high pressure to our north, but there is no direct storm threat here just a steady, slightly gusty flow of air feeding clouds inland.

Through the evening, temperatures slide back into the upper 70s by 8 PM with partly cloudy skies holding on. A stray shower cannot be ruled out, mainly east of I-95 or closer to the Chesapeake, but most inland spots stay dry. No thunderstorms, no tornado concerns, and certainly no hurricane impacts are expected. The biggest influence on our local weather remains indirect: some gusty winds, occasional clouds, and just a few passing sprinkles.

08/19/2025

08.18.2025 12PM
DAILY RAIN CHANCES RETURN

Cloudy and unsettled weather will hang around through much of this week across Maryland, south-central Pennsylvania, and the Delmarva. High pressure over New England and a cool wedge setup along the Appalachians will keep skies gray, temperatures cooler than normal, and allow moisture from the Atlantic to bring scattered showers. The best chance for showers will come Tuesday, with activity most likely near the Bay and Eastern Shore, while areas west of I-95 stay drier.

By midweek, Wednesday into Thursday, showers become more hit-or-miss, but the clouds and breezy easterly winds stick around. Temperatures will stay cooler than average, mainly in the 70s, with a damp and breezy feel more like early fall than late summer. Any showers that do develop should be light and brief, without any flooding concerns.

Late week, shower chances trend even lower, but Hurricane Erin offshore will begin to influence conditions at the coast. While Erin poses no direct threat to Maryland or Pennsylvania, it will send large swells toward the beaches, bringing 6–9 ft breakers, dangerous rip currents, and the potential for minor tidal flooding in low-lying coastal areas. Inland, expect gustier breezes and continued clouds, but mainly dry weather overall.

08/19/2025

08.19.2025 10AM
DAILY TROPICAL UPDATE

Hurricane Erin continues to maintain its strength as a powerful major hurricane in the western Atlantic, with sustained winds holding near 130 mph as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The system is moving to the northwest at about 10 mph, and the official forecast track keeps Erin well offshore of the U.S. East Coast. It is important to underline that there is NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IN MARYLAND, Pennsylvania, or the I-95 corridor, as the storm will not make landfall along the Mid-Atlantic. Instead, the current track shows Erin curving to the north and eventually eastward later this week, heading out into the open Atlantic waters making this a fish storm. This means that inland areas across Central Maryland and South-Central Pennsylvania will not see any hurricane-force winds, storm surge, or direct rainfall from Erin, tidal flooding is something we do have to watch out for. However, large-scale weather patterns connected to Erin will still play a role in shaping our local conditions. High pressure centered over New England is interacting with Erin offshore, creating a strong pressure gradient across the Mid-Atlantic states. This setup will funnel cool, damp, and breezy air into our region, reinforcing the already entrenched wedge of clouds and below-normal temperatures. While Erin itself stays offshore, its influence will still be felt indirectly across Maryland and the broader Mid-Atlantic.

The most significant local impact from Erin will be felt along the beaches, especially Ocean City, the Delaware beaches, and coastal portions of Virginia. As Erin remains offshore, it will generate large swells that travel hundreds of miles across the Atlantic before reaching the shoreline. These swells will begin to build during midweek, peaking Wednesday through Friday, with breakers in the 6 to 9 foot range expected along Ocean City, Rehoboth, Bethany, and Fenwick Island. This will create extremely dangerous rip currents, and even experienced swimmers could quickly be pulled into life-threatening situations. The surf will appear deceptively rough on otherwise sunny or partly cloudy days, which makes the ocean particularly dangerous for those who underestimate its power. In addition to rip currents, minor tidal flooding will be possible in low-lying coastal zones around times of high tide later this week. Parking lots, beach access areas, and back-bay waters may see brief flooding episodes if tides run higher than forecast. Boaters and surfers should exercise extreme caution, as conditions offshore will also become hazardous for small craft. Erin may stay hundreds of miles away, but the Mid-Atlantic beaches will be impacted in noticeable and potentially dangerous ways.

Beyond the surf, Erin’s presence offshore will help increase winds across much of Maryland and Pennsylvania as the week progresses. With strong high pressure to the north and Hurricane Erin offshore, a tight pressure gradient will form that drives persistent easterly winds into the Mid-Atlantic. These winds will steadily increase, becoming gusty by midweek and most noticeable east of I-95 and near the Chesapeake Bay and beaches. Inland, winds will not reach damaging levels, but gusts will be enough to reinforce the cool, cloudy, and unsettled conditions already in place. Across Central Maryland and South-Central Pennsylvania, temperatures will struggle to climb out of the low to mid-70s, running several degrees below seasonal averages. Low clouds, periods of drizzle, and scattered light showers will remain common, especially in areas east of I-95. West of the interstate, drier conditions will dominate, but skies will stay mostly overcast. These gray and breezy conditions are not the direct effects of Hurricane Erin, but the indirect result of the storm’s offshore circulation interacting with high pressure to the north. The key takeaway remains clear Hurricane Erin will not directly impact Maryland, but it will drive rough surf, rip currents, minor tidal flooding at the coast, and gusty winds inland.

08/19/2025

08.19.2025 7AM
GUSTY WINDS

Today will continue to feel like a fall preview across much of Central Maryland, South-Central Pennsylvania, and the Eastern Shore. High pressure over Quebec is funneling cooler air southward, keeping a cold air damming wedge in place across the Mid-Atlantic. This setup means clouds will dominate most of the day, with temperatures struggling to climb much higher than the lower to mid-70s. Areas to the north and west of I-95 should stay mainly dry, but scattered light showers will linger closer to the Chesapeake Bay, Southern Maryland, and Eastern Virginia. Overnight lows will dip back into the 60s, adding to the cool, damp feel.

Through the day today, expect easterly winds to stay steady and breezy, reinforcing the cool and cloudy conditions. The strongest shower activity will stay southeast of I-95, but any breaks in the clouds will be limited. The high pressure wedge ensures temperatures remain well below normal for mid-August, with many places barely reaching the mid-70s. Those headed to the Eastern Shore or beaches should expect a gray and unsettled day, with occasional showers and stiff breezes off the water. This wedge setup is classic for keeping the Mid-Atlantic cool and damp, even while areas farther south and west see more warmth and sunshine.

Looking ahead, winds will gradually increase through the week as Hurricane Erin churns well offshore. While there is no direct threat of wind or rain for Maryland or Pennsylvania, the storm’s circulation will enhance the easterly flow, leading to gustier conditions locally. This will also translate to rough surf and dangerous rip currents along the beaches, with breakers climbing into the 6–9 ft range later this week. By mid-to-late week, those gusts may become more noticeable inland, especially along the Bay and Eastern Shore. For now, the main story remains the cool wedge pattern tomorrow, keeping skies gray, temperatures chilly for August, and a damp feel for much of the region.

08/18/2025

Are You Ready for the Summer To End?

08/18/2025

08.18.2025 10AM
DAILY TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE

Hurricane Erin continues to move northward through the Atlantic, maintaining major hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds well over 100 mph. Current forecasts from the National Hurricane Center show the storm remaining offshore, with the center staying hundreds of miles east of the Mid-Atlantic. This means there is no direct path or impact to Maryland in terms of tropical storm or hurricane conditions. However, just because the storm is offshore does not mean it will have no influence on our area. The biggest concern is the long-period swells it generates as it churns through the western Atlantic. These swells will gradually arrive along the East Coast and will be most noticeable along Maryland and Delaware beaches. By midweek, waves will build significantly, with conditions worsening Thursday and Friday as Erin makes its closest approach. The key takeaway is that Erin is not a landfall threat here, but it will still create dangerous marine and beach hazards.

The primary concern will be rough surf and dangerous rip currents along Maryland’s coast. Breakers of 6–9 feet are expected to develop, especially late this week, and these will pose a very high risk to swimmers and surfers. Even experienced swimmers will face life-threatening rip current risks, and beachgoers should exercise extreme caution when near the water. Offshore, seas are forecast to build even higher, with waves of 10–16 feet possible, leading to significant navigation issues for mariners. Onshore, beach erosion is also a concern, as these repeated high breakers will steadily eat away at dunes and shorelines. The timing of Erin’s swells also coincides with the new moon cycle, which could enhance tidal effects. This means minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out during high tide cycles, especially in back bays and more vulnerable spots. These impacts will likely linger into the weekend, even after Erin has moved farther north. For Maryland, the ocean is the only real concern, but that alone is enough to warrant attention.

It is important to stress again that Maryland is not in Erin’s direct path and will not see tropical storm winds, heavy rain, or inland flooding from this system. The core of the hurricane will stay far offshore, well to the east of the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey coastline. That being said, coastal impacts will be the story for our region, particularly for those planning trips to the beaches. Large waves, rough surf, and rip currents are a certainty, and beachgoers should follow all lifeguard instructions and heed red flag warnings. Mariners and boaters should also take note of the large seas, which will make offshore conditions hazardous through much of the week. By Friday into Saturday, the storm will begin to lift away from the coast and head farther into the North Atlantic. Still, the lingering swells will keep dangerous rip currents in place into the weekend. The safest choice will be to avoid going into the water during this period and enjoy the beach from the sand. Maryland residents inland can expect no direct storm effects, but awareness is key for anyone traveling east to the shore.

08/18/2025

08.18.2025 7AM EDT
COOLER & ISOLATED PM STORMS

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across Central Maryland, South-Central Pennsylvania, and the Upper Eastern Shore on Monday. The coverage won’t be widespread, but a few spots could see a passing downpour or rumble of thunder, especially through the afternoon and early evening.

Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 70s for most areas, while spots closer to Baltimore and around the Bay could climb into the 80s, with Glen Burnie and Severna Park pushing near 89°. Areas farther north into Pennsylvania, including York and New Freedom, stay cooler in the low to mid-70s.

Overall, most of the day will still feature dry breaks with some sunshine peeking through, but keep the rain gear handy for those hit-or-miss pop-up storms. The chance of rain is running about 30% for both Maryland and Pennsylvania, so not everyone will see storms, but those that do could get brief heavy rain and lightning.

08/18/2025

I want to share something personal. When I was younger, I was terrified of storms. Thunder, lightning, and the unknown of what might happen would send me into panic. But instead of letting that fear control me, I chose to turn it into curiosity. I began studying weather, reading everything I could, and eventually learning from some of the best meteorologists I could connect with. What once scared me became something I understood, and through understanding, I found peace. That journey is why I started TMC Weather. I wanted to give people the same comfort I found by replacing fear with knowledge and giving others the tools to feel informed and safe. TMC Weather isn’t just a page or a business it’s a service born out of that personal journey. I opened this as a real business because I wanted to commit to you, my followers, in a serious way. This page is here not just during thunderstorms, but also on sunny days, during snowstorms, hurricanes, and everything in between. Every weather update I write is done with the thought of, “How can I make this clearer, calmer, and more useful for someone who might be scared like I once was?” That perspective guides everything I post. I want to give you both the science and the reassurance. If my work helps even one person feel less anxious about the skies above them, then I’ve done my job. And that’s why I’ll always take this work personally.

Something I’ll always promise you is honesty. Weather isn’t perfect, and forecasts will never be perfect either. When I’m wrong, I will admit it 1000% and explain exactly why things didn’t go the way we expected. To me, that honesty matters, because it shows you that I’m not hiding behind models or fancy terms I’m here to break it down for you in real terms. I take pride in learning from every miss, improving with every storm, and building trust by being transparent. You’ve placed your trust in me, and I will never take that lightly. When I succeed, it’s because of you; when I stumble, I’ll own it. That accountability is part of what makes TMC Weather more than just a forecast page it makes it a relationship with you. Finally, I want to say thank you. Each and every one of you who follows, comments, shares, or simply reads means the world to me. You’re not just “followers,” you’re a community I care deeply about. I value every person who takes even a minute to read my updates. It’s an honor to be someone you turn to for weather information, whether it’s a sunny afternoon picnic forecast or a stormy evening update. I don’t take your trust lightly, and I truly feel connected to all of you through this passion we share. My goal has always been to serve, to calm, and to guide, because I know firsthand what it’s like to be afraid of what the skies might bring. And because of you, I get to do what I love every single day turning my passion into a service that hopefully makes a difference. Another reason I take this work so personally is because I know how powerful weather can be in shaping lives. I’ve seen how a single storm can damage homes, cancel long-awaited plans, or make people feel helpless. That’s why I always aim to communicate in a way that prepares, not scares. My mission is to provide context explaining not just what the weather is, but why it’s happening, and what it really means for your day. When people feel informed, they feel empowered. That empowerment is what I want to give every one of you.

What makes TMC Weather different is the personal connection. This isn’t a big, corporate-run operation it’s me, someone who has lived through the same fears and learned how to turn them into understanding. I don’t just see numbers on a model or radar returns on a screen; I see families trying to plan their day, athletes out on the field, and parents tucking their kids in at night hoping storms won’t wake them. That perspective drives me to give the best information I possibly can, because I know what’s at stake. It’s not just about the science it’s about people. At the end of the day, I want you to know that I value this relationship we’ve built. TMC Weather isn’t just my business it’s my passion and my purpose. You’ve allowed me to take something I once feared and transform it into a way to serve others. That’s not something I take for granted. Whether it’s clear skies or stormy nights, I’ll always be here to give you my best, to admit when I’m wrong, and to walk alongside you through whatever the weather brings. Thank you for being part of this journey with me you’re the reason I do what I do, and the reason I’ll continue giving this my all every single day.

-Tanner C

08/18/2025

08.17.2025 9:25PM
ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING

The atmosphere right now is showing clear signs of weakening compared to earlier this afternoon when storms were at their strongest. Instability, which is the energy storms need to grow tall and powerful, has steadily decreased as surface heating fades with the lowering sun. Without that fuel, storms are struggling to build and sustain the tall updrafts that make them severe. Earlier, this instability allowed storms to grow rapidly and become well-organized, but now the energy available for new storm growth is much less. Cloud bases remain relatively low, which earlier made it easier for storms to root near the surface, but without sufficient energy, those low bases no longer provide the same severe threat. As instability drops, the atmosphere becomes more stable, and storms lose the ability to intensify. Any storms that do form in this environment will generally be weaker, shorter-lived, and less capable of producing severe weather. The once widespread threat has now shifted to more isolated showers or weaker thunderstorms that cannot maintain the same intensity. This weakening trend is a normal part of the evening storm cycle, especially after the peak heating of the day has passed. The overall setup now favors calming conditions instead of strengthening storms.

Winds higher up in the atmosphere remain supportive of storm organization, but they are no longer being fully tapped by storms due to the drop in instability. Earlier today, storms took advantage of stronger wind fields to line up into a QLCS, which increased the risk of damaging straight-line winds. That line is now weakening as the atmosphere becomes less favorable for maintaining strong organization. Drier air aloft, which earlier helped create powerful downdrafts and stronger gusty winds, is still present but no longer interacts with strong updrafts. Without tall, intense cores of rain and hail falling through that dry air, the process of creating damaging winds weakens significantly. Downdrafts that do form now hit the surface with less force and spread out more gently, lowering the wind threat. The risk of damaging winds has dropped sharply compared to earlier, leaving only small, brief gusts possible in any leftover showers. Even where storms remain, they lack the structure and energy needed to produce widespread severe weather. The combination of weaker downdrafts and diminishing organization shows that the most dangerous part of today’s weather is behind us. This is a strong indicator that the severe threat is rapidly coming to an end.

The cold front that triggered today’s storms is still moving southeast, but it is leaving behind an atmosphere that is steadily calming down. Earlier, during what we call the “magic hour,” instability, moisture, and lift all overlapped to produce the most favorable environment of the day. That window of peak storm support has passed, and with instability decreasing, the cold front no longer has the same fuel to spark strong storms. While a few leftover showers or thunderstorms may still develop along the front, they are much weaker than what we saw earlier. Tornado potential, which was already on the lower side, is now even smaller with the environment trending more stable. Damaging winds are also far less likely because storms cannot produce the strong downdrafts they had earlier. Instead, the front is now mainly producing lighter rain and weaker storms that are more disorganized. As the front continues to push farther away, the threat for severe weather across the region continues to drop. The atmosphere is stabilizing, and the conditions that supported earlier storms are no longer in place. Overall, the environment is shifting into a much quieter and calmer state for the rest of the evening.

TMC Weather, LLC

08/20/2025

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