Dr. Studs' Weather Outlook

Dr. Studs' Weather Outlook This page will provide weather forecasts and insight to the mid-Atlantic region and the tropical Atlantic. Aerospace Engineering, U. of Michigan, 1987


M.S.

This page is managed by Aaron Studwell, a Maryland native with many friends and family still in the area. That is why I have the initial forecast focus on this region. For those that are curious, my academic credentials are:


B.S. Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 1995


Ph.D. Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Houston, 2020

As for my work experience, I am have over 20 years of meteorological

experience across a variety of sectors, including forecasts for commodity traders, weather derivatives, and providing worldwide forecasts for the exploration & production sector. In addition, I have over five years of experience in the air quality engineering/meteorology sector. One thing you will find here which you may not find elsewhere - if (when) a forecast busts, I will go back and explain why. And how we learn from that. That is one way this science advances. The thing you will not find here - hype. I'm not here for ratings, ad dollars, or numbers. I'm here to provide an honest forecast assessment, along with clear & accessible information. Finally - timeliness. I try to remain timely. However, being a dad and a full-time business owner, there are times I'm not always around. For those times, I will ask for your patience and understanding. Thank you for the follow!

There is a marginal risk for severe storms from Ontario to middle Tennessee. For the mid-Atlantic region, the primary th...
09/04/2025

There is a marginal risk for severe storms from Ontario to middle Tennessee. For the mid-Atlantic region, the primary threat will be winds up to 60 mph.

The timing for the storms will be from mid-afternoon into the evening hours, depending on your location.

As of noon ET, a line of storms was moving into western Virginia, while a second line was moving across central Pennsylvania.

08/20/2025

Here is a map from the NWS of Tidal flooding for Thursday to Friday morning.

08/17/2025
While I haven't done specific updates on either Tropical Storm Erin or the potential tropical development over the south...
08/14/2025

While I haven't done specific updates on either Tropical Storm Erin or the potential tropical development over the southern Gulf of Mexico, I am watching both areas for my work.

Given the potential for flooding across south Texas and the Texas coast, I can write updates, if there is interest. (Please comment below)

At this time, there is a less than 10% chance for significant impacts from Erin. (The percentage has recently increased for Bermuda.) I will continue to monitor this, as well.

08/13/2025

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Baltimore/DC metro areas from 2pm-9pm. Multiple rounds of slow moving thunderstorms this afternoon & evening will lead to instances of urban flash flooding. Have a way to get warning via phone, tv, internet, or radio! More at weather.gov/lwx.

08/02/2025

What a shot! Last night's storms spun up more than one waterspout on the Chesapeake, this one spotted near Smith Island. Luckily none were reported coming to shore to become damaging tornadoes. Thank you to Bethany Pruitt for sending this photo in and be sure to download the WBOC News and WBOC Weather apps to stay weather aware!

07/31/2025

One lightning bolt just set a world record, zapping 515 miles from Texas to Missouri in an electrifying streak across the sky.⚡📏 http://bit.ly/4m30OCg

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia ...
07/31/2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
District Of Columbia
Delaware
Maryland
New Jersey
Southeast New York
Southern into Eastern Pennsylvania
Northern and Eastern Virginia
Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon. Several clusters of thunderstorms will likely focus a risk for strong to severe windgusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely persist into the early evening before diminishing or moving east of the coast.

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This page is managed by Dr. Aaron Studwell. While I currently live in Norman, Oklahoma, I am a Maryland native with friends and family still in the area. That is why I have the initial forecast focus on this region. For those that are curious, my academic credentials are: B.S. Aerospace Engineering, U. of Michigan, 1987 M.S. Meteorology, Texas A&M University, 1995 Ph.D., Atmospheric Sciences, U. of Houston, 2020 As for my work experience, I am currently operating this page, along with other atmospheric sciences-related venture, RaceWeather & recently completed a soft launch of ExoConsulting.net. My meteorological experience includes over 20 years of weather forecasting for the energy sector, including forecasts for commodity traders, weather derivatives, and providing worldwide forecasts for the exploration & production sector. In addition, I have over five years of experience in the air quality engineering/meteorology sector. One thing you will find here which you may not find elsewhere - if (when) a forecast busts, I will go back and explain why. And how we learn from that. That is one way this science advances. The thing you will not find here - hype. I'm not here for ratings, ad dollars, or numbers. I'm here to provide an honest forecast assessment, along with clear & accessible information. Finally - timeliness. I try to remain timely. Since it is not a paid thing, I am not always around, but I will try to be here. For those other times, I will ask for your patience and understanding. Thank you for the follow!