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Our World, Bloomington, IN (2026)

05/10/2026

CONFLICT TRACKER: The Center for Preventive Action’s (CPA) Global Conflict Tracker is an interactive guide to ongoing conflicts around the world of concern to the United States. The map displays nearly thirty conflicts with background information and resources on each conflict (Council on Foreign Relations).

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan member organization, think tank, and publisher.

05/10/2026

US-CHINA SUMMIT: Next week, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing for a highly anticipated summit, the first of four potential meetings over the next year. It is unclear what the scope of discussion will be and what will come out of this meeting. But that is all well and good. The world is a safer place when its two largest economies and most powerful countries are on speaking terms. As Trump wrote on Truth Social, “President Xi will give me a big, fat hug when I get there in a few weeks. We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting???” (Council on Foreign Affairs).

CFR President Michael Froman analyzes the issues on the table ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.

05/10/2026

MIDDLE EAST: The explosion of direct, kinetic conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026 has irrevocably shattered the geopolitical stasis of the Middle East. However, the true scale of this conflict extends far beyond the immediate exchange of ballistic missiles and airstrikes in the Persian Gulf. This war is the violent catalyst accelerating the broader, systemic energy war between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. As the geopolitical tectonic plates shift, the United Arab Emirates’ historic departure from OPEC and the sudden paralysis of critical maritime chokepoints are exposing the fragility of global supply chains. At the heart of this Great Power competition is a battle over infrastructure, specifically, the competing visions of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs).

This conflict accelerates the realization of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. The future of Middle Eastern wealth relies not on controlling the vulnerable waters of the Gulf, but on securing the overland, technologically integrated corridors of tomorrow. - The Arteries of Empire: How....

05/10/2026

CHNA: China's industrial policy is more complex than most policymakers acknowledge. Headline successes in electric vehicles, semiconductors and green hydrogen obscure a large share of subsidies flowing to inefficient and declining sectors. While China's use of commercialisation has been a genuine strength, mounting fiscal pressures and structural imbalances warn of the limits to this model. The real lesson for policymakers is not to copy China’s industrial policy model wholesale but to understand the domestic context, identify the most important sectors for national security and prosperity and concentrate resources accordingly (East Asia Forum).

Policymakers must seek to understand China’s industrial policy in its full complexity and exercise clarity in applying lessons learned to their own economic strategies

05/10/2026

TIBET/CHINA: In Tibet today, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is waging a war not only against territory and religion, but against memory itself. The battlefield is the classroom. The weapons are language policies, boarding schools, and ideological indoctrination. And the targets are children — the most vulnerable carriers of culture. The CCP has placed more than one-million Tibetan children in state-run boarding schools across the plateau. They are separated from their families, stripped of their language, and immersed in Mandarin-only education. They are taught to glorify Mao Zedong, to sing hymns to the People’s Liberation Army, and to view the CCP as the benevolent architect of their future. What is happening is not education — it is subjugation (Journal of Democracy).

Beijing is engaged in a deliberate and devastating war on Tibetan heritage, culture, and memory. And in this war, the Chinese Communist Party’s chief target is Tibetan children.

05/08/2026

EUROPEAN UNION: Amid growing global geoeconomic pressure, the EU’s dilemma to be an effective geoeconomic actor is not from a shortage of suitable instruments, but rather from the constraints that prevent their timely and consistent use (Finnish Institute of International Affairs).

The EU's dilemma to be an effective geoeconomic actor is not from a shortage of suitable instruments, but rather from the constraints that prevent their timely and consistent use.

05/08/2026

CHINA: On February 6, US Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno claimed—though public evidence remains inconclusive—that China conducted “nuclear explosive tests, including preparing for tests with designated yields in the hundreds of tons.” Beijing’s Foreign Ministry rejected these accusations, saying they “are completely groundless and are outright lies.” In response to an earlier accusation, President Donald Trump made in an interview, China’s Foreign Ministry claimed that it adheres to its nuclear testing moratorium and calls on all states to uphold the authority of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).

The US and its allies must push back against China's contradictions—not with empty rhetoric, but with concrete proposals for P5 data-sharing, test-site transparency, and targeted diplomacy with NAM members.

05/08/2026

CHINA/TAIWAN: Research on the possibility and likely outcome of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait has expanded rapidly in recent years. Studies have focused on a broad range of questions related to deterrence, potential conflict dynamics, and possible conflict outcomes. Tabletop exercises have been used to identify gaps in the capabilities of the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Taiwan to assess potential escalation pathways and to better understand war termination strategies.1 Comparatively less attention has been devoted to the potential impact of cross-Strait conflict on the PRC itself and how that impact could shape President Xi Jinping’s risk calculus and decision-making about use of force against Taiwan (German Marshall Fund).

Breadcrumb Home Press If China Attacks Taiwan Insights If China Attacks Taiwan The Consequences for China of “Minor Conflict” and “Major War” Scenarios January 05, 2026 by Sheena Chestnut Greitens Zack Cooper Jake Rinaldi Charlie Vest Logan Wright Joel Wuthnow Edited by Bonnie S. Glaser 6 mi...

05/08/2026

RUSSIA/UKRAINE: With no end in sight to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the two nations currently find themselves embroiled in a curious episode of competing ceasefires that says much about the current state of the war. This ceasefire saga revolves around Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9, which marks the Soviet contribution to the allied victory over N**i Germany in World War II. Since the beginning of his reign more than a quarter of a century ago, Vladimir Putin has transformed Victory Day from a solemn day of remembrance into a muscular celebration of Russian nationalism (Atlantic Council).

Victory Day was supposed to be an opportunity for Vladimir Putin to project power. Instead, this year’s drastically scaled down parade is exposing Russia’s weakness while revealing Ukraine's strength, writes Peter Dickinson.

05/03/2026

USA: It appears Donald Trump once again snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by heeding the hawkish counsel of the warmongers at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. As I have argued before, the fragile ceasefire disproportionately favored the United States over Iran: Trump secured his central objective — a swift exit from a costly war — while Iran forfeited its primary source of leverage, namely the inflationary pressure of elevated oil prices. Tehran, by contrast, remained unable to achieve its core objective — meaningful sanctions relief — without entering a difficult diplomatic process with Washington (Responsible Statecraft).

Washington's search for a 'silver bullet' to defeat Tehran has made it all but impossible to secure a deal

05/03/2026

USA: “I won’t see you next time.” With those words, Jerome Powell ended his likely final press conference as Federal Reserve chair on Wednesday, after presiding over his final Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Having served as chair for just over eight years, his term will end on May 15. Though Powell’s last year on the job was marked by turbulence—from his public spat with US President Donald Trump to a Justice Department investigation into alleged building cost overruns (that has been dropped)—he will leave behind a notable legacy that includes both major achievements and shortcomings (Atlantic Council).

Both Powell’s major achievements and his shortcomings can serve as lessons for future Federal Reserve chairs.

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