Foreign Policy Observer

Foreign Policy Observer Following US foreign policy with a critical eye. Views from outside the mainstream media. I am a mix of an anti-war idealist with some Mearsheimer-style Realism.

Plus throw in some wisdom from Noam Chomsky. Per Chomsky, I think western elites manufacture and manipulate public opinion using the media - especially when it comes to foreign policy! I hope to expose people to news and opinions that they might not otherwise hear.

*I deliberately do not source from RT or Sputnik to avoid being labeled as a Kremlin stooge.

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 8Evidently, Putin and Macron see the need to re-engage to bring Russian-Fren...
07/04/2025

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 8

Evidently, Putin and Macron see the need to re-engage to bring Russian-French ties to a new normalcy. There is growing realisation that Russia’s demand to negotiate a security architecture for Europe, which was one of the core demands of the Kremlin while opting for the special military operations in Ukraine in February 2022, is showing signs of slowly, steadily gaining traction with Trump. He is unilaterally begun relaxing some financial sanctions on Russia which would also mean that he is taking control of European Union’s reckless moves on Russia. May be this surmise is looking beyond the curve, but it is only logical.

From the Russian readout of the Putin-Macron conversation, it emerges that the discussion devolved upon two topics — the critical Middle East situation and the Ukraine war. The two-hour long discussion certainly went beyond an in-depth exchange.

The Russian readout adopts a positive note on the whole that apropos the Middle East situation at least, despite the past discord and acrimony, the two countries may find convergence in regard of the Iran situation in the wake of the US strike insofar as they “bore a particular responsibility for upholding peace and security” in West Asia as permanent members of the UN Security Council “as well as for preserving the global non-proliferation regime.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) with French President Emmanuel Macron in talks in Kremlin early February 2022, Moscow France seeks a role in Iran situation On July 1, did you hear the crunching sound of ice cracking on the frozen lake of Russia-France ties? President Vladimir Putin’s decision...

Simplicius:One under-appreciated aspect of the Israeli-Iranian conflict was how it has galvanized the hardliners in Iran...
07/04/2025

Simplicius:

One under-appreciated aspect of the Israeli-Iranian conflict was how it has galvanized the hardliners in Iran, with some believing that it effectively centralized power around the military hawk faction, rather than fomenting discord and disarray as the West had hoped.

We saw that during the conflict, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei delegated war decisions to an IRGC shura council, allowing them to make all necessary military responses without his immediate oversight.

Now Economist writes how the Israeli—and previous American—strikes actually helped wipe out the ‘moderates’ and install a far hardier class of military commanders:

As the IRGC gains control its elite is being transformed at speed by Israel’s assassinations. Gone are the veteran commanders who for years pursued “strategic patience”, limiting their fire when their totemic leader, Qassem Soleimani, was assassinated in 2020, and holding it when Israel battered their proxies, Hamas and Hizbullah, in 2024. Now a new generation, impatient and more dogmatic, has taken their place and is bent on redeeming national pride. “The maximalist position has been strengthened,” says an academic close to the reformist camp. He claims the decision-makers in place before the war were debating whether to ditch their anti-Israel stance. But “everyone is now a hardliner”.

They even declare that for the first time since the 1979 revolution, the military has gained supremacy over the ‘clerics’, which could explain why Khamenei had notably gone ‘absent’ during the latter half of the brief war.

But in the medium term it could signal that the regime becomes more extreme, not more pragmatic, under the pressure of a devastating military campaign.

What’s more is that Iran’s elites appear to be ‘coalescing’, whereas a year ago there was great infighting and disagreement on the direction of the country vis-a-vis international pressures; now the ‘moderate’ faction is silenced in favor of the bold patriots. This is similar to the natural selection process which took place in the Russian elite circles around the time of the SMO. This was most obviously seen when the Majlis declared its unanimity in closing the Strait of Hormuz, which we’ll get to in a minute.

Most eye-opening was the Economist’s admission that Israel’s strikes on civilian targets had actually served to unite Iranian society. This alone flies in the face of daily narratives we’ve been fed about Iran being in tatters, and that disillusioned citizens are waiting with open arms for Reza Pahlavi to depose the ‘theocratic regime’.

One under-appreciated aspect of the Israeli-Iranian conflict was how it has galvanized the hardliners in Iran, with some believing that it effectively centralized power around the military hawk faction, rather than fomenting discord and disarray as the West had hoped.

Kit Klarenberg:So far, the ceasefire holds. In the meantime, U.S. claims of having damaged, let alone destroyed, Iran’s ...
07/03/2025

Kit Klarenberg:

So far, the ceasefire holds. In the meantime, U.S. claims of having damaged, let alone destroyed, Iran’s nuclear facilities have quickly unraveled, as have Israeli allegations that the June 13 strike was an urgent necessity conducted as Iran was on the imminent verge of acquiring nukes.

As the dust settles, it is becoming increasingly clear that the so-called “12 Day War” was long in the making, and an unmitigated disaster for Tel Aviv and Washington, with wide-ranging ramifications for the region and beyond.

“Netanyahu wanted to incite regime change in Tehran, while drawing the U.S. into a wider war. He failed on both counts, and now Iran is stronger, its citizens more united with one another, and behind their government,” Ali Abunimah, Electronic Intifada cofounder, tells MintPress News.

https://scheerpost.com/2025/07/01/beyond-the-bombs-who-really-won-the-12-day-war-between-israel-and-iran/?

Israel claimed early victory. Iran hit back harder. Now, as both sides go quiet, the real winner is only beginning to emerge.

Turkey has long been concerned about Iranian attempts to use the PKK against Ankara, but Israel’s growing influence in t...
07/02/2025

Turkey has long been concerned about Iranian attempts to use the PKK against Ankara, but Israel’s growing influence in the region and increasingly tense relations also raised fears that the PKK could find yet another partner on the ground.

However, a leaked meeting document reviewed by Middle East Eye indicates that Ocalan, who led an armed struggle against Turkey for nearly 40 years, is strongly opposed to any potential regional dominance by Israel.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/pkks-ocalan-no-israeli-dominance-through-kurds?

In leaked minutes, Ocalan presents himself as the Kurdish leader that can stop Israel's regional ambitions

John Helmer:Then there is Putin’s philosemitism in dealing with the Jewish state. Joseph Stalin believed Israel to be a...
07/01/2025

John Helmer:

Then there is Putin’s philosemitism in dealing with the Jewish state. Joseph Stalin believed Israel to be an anti-imperial ally, but it has turned into a battleship for the empire in destroying all of Russia’s traditional Arab allies, and now Iran — the last holdout before Putin must fight a war on the southern front.

There, Putin’s policy towards Iran combines two hundred years of Russian trial-and-error, some of the errors fatal ones.

In the tradition of male loyalties in the Russian tusovka – mishpocha is the Jewish concept – Putin is both comfortable with and dutiful towards the Jewish men he shared his Leningrad boyhood with. Such loyalty is lifelong. No Russian can forget – even if Americans, Germans and British make a point and policy of forgetting – that they survived the war but not their grandparents, fathers, brothers and womenfolk. Putin has been persuaded that the 15% of Israel’s population who are Russian by language, history, and habit are an extension of the tusovka to which he should show the loyalty which survivors must show each other.

There has been nothing comparable towards the Iranian side; towards the Arab world, genuine Russian sympathy and cultural orientalism died with Yevgeny Primakov (1929-2015). Ties of trade, investment, and military cooperation are a poor substitute, as unpredictable and as fraudulent as the spot and future markets in commodities, including money itself.

By John Helmer, Moscow In warfighting against Russia’s enemies, President Vladimir Putin makes mistakes. He admits as much. Unequ

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 7The bottom line is that a groundswell of opinion is building up in the US, ...
07/01/2025

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 7

The bottom line is that a groundswell of opinion is building up in the US, reminiscent of the incipient undercurrents after President Kennedy’s assassination that eventually swept America as Lyndon Johnson accelerated the Vietnam War ultimately turning it into a tsunami that forced him to retire from politics.

In reality, Trump’s options are limited. He is insisting that the air strikes of June 22 “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. That is to say, the Iranian bomb is no longer a compelling reality.

On the other hand, Israel is mighty upset that Iran has given it such a battering that its economy is in shambles and it cannot hope to taken on Iran directly in a foreseeable future. It expects Trump to do the heavy lifting, which, to my mind — and, perhaps, special envoy Steve Witkoff’s mind — Trump is loathe to do.

If Trump embarks on a war path regardless, he needs a mandate from the UN Security Council and the US Congress. But neither is likely forthcoming. That aside, if Iran inflicts serious damage to the US interests in a military confrontation, it can potentially turn into a hot button issue in the mid-term elections next year that could mean an ignominious end to MAGA movement and Trump’s legacy.

What is the alternative? I would go back to Trump’s default position and do ground work to negotiate the so-called Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

Funeral ceremony for military commanders and nuclear scientists martyred during Israel’s 12-day war, Tehran, June 28, 2025 Trump flip-flops on Iran, again. Why? The US President Donald Trump’s latest Truth Social post yesterday on Iran nuclear issue reads as follows: “Tell phony Democrat Senat...

Simplicius:Ukraine has mostly been forgotten under the shadow of the Israeli conflict.But the war has not abated, and th...
07/01/2025

Simplicius:

Ukraine has mostly been forgotten under the shadow of the Israeli conflict.

But the war has not abated, and the Russian summer offensives roll on.

And like clockwork, days after those initial reports, there are now Russian breakthroughs ongoing as of today.

We turn back to the Ukrainian war for updates.

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 6As the 12-day war ends in the Middle East, it is abundantly clear that the ...
06/27/2025

M. K. BHADRAKUMAR: Middle East in Crisis – 6

As the 12-day war ends in the Middle East, it is abundantly clear that the conflict erupted almost entirely due to Israel’s plan to undermine the US-Iran talks. Israel feared that fundamentally, both Washington and Tehran sought an improvement of relations, which would be a historic reconciliation ushering in a New Middle East, where its regional hegemony would be at risk.

The destruction of Iraq and Syria testifies to what extent Israel would go to pin down the US foreign policy strategy to the old groove despite nagging awareness in Washington’s thoughtful circles, including the CIA, over the years that without addressing the Iran question, American diplomacy in West Asia would remain sub-optimal.

Barack Obama realised this but wouldn’t take the bull by its horns. Joe Biden also knew this but became a victim of the Russophobia that warped his thinking, and Iran got relegated to the back burner. Things were in drift until the October 7 attacks on Israel. The rest is history.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, is clear-headed that he has three major foreign policy challenges to be sorted out in the four years ahead — Russia, Iran and China. Arguably, he prefers to handle the three areas sequentially but also realises that is not feasible or even advisable.

Thus, Trump found himself reopening the Iran file. Paradoxically, he saw Iran reconciliation as a low-hanging fruit, although it is an incredibly complicated issue where memory mixes with desire.

The mitigating factor is that although the US’ capacity to influence the region’s politics is in decline and interventionism no longer an option, West Asia has transformed beyond recognition during the four years he was out of power. Trump feels emboldened that Iran has much greater acceptability in its neighbourhood than ever before and this allows out-of-the-box solutions.

America’s peacemaking president Donald Trump emerges out of White House after wrapping up a ceasefire in the war in West Asia, heading for the Netherlands for the 2025 NATO Summit that marks a consolidation of the western alliance system under US leadership, Washington, DC, June 23, 2025 Trump won...

Ayatollah Khamenei:“The US entered the war directly because it feared that if it didn’t, the Zionist regime would be com...
06/27/2025

Ayatollah Khamenei:

“The US entered the war directly because it feared that if it didn’t, the Zionist regime would be completely destroyed,” the Leader said. “It intervened to save them but gained nothing from the war.”

He said the Americans attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, an act that calls for legal prosecution in international courts.

Referring to the bluster of US President Donald Trump after the aggression and Iran's powerful retaliation, the Leader said the US president unusually exaggerated events, clearly showing how badly he needed to create a narrative.

“Anyone who heard his remarks could sense that behind those words lay a very different truth,” he said. “They failed to achieve their objectives, and they inflated their claims to conceal the reality.”

In his message following the end of Israeli aggression against Iran and a unilateral declaration of a ceasefire by the regime, Ayatollah Khamenei congratulates the Iranian nation on the victory.

The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-pr...
06/27/2025

The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, easing sanctions, and freeing up billions of dollars in restricted Iranian funds – all part of an intensifying attempt to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table, four sources familiar with the matter said.

The Trump administration has discussed possibly helping Iran access as much as $30 billion to build a civilian-energy-producing nuclear program, sources say.

John Helmer:[E]scalation of force by the US has compelled Iran to negotiate terms of capitulation which it was refusing ...
06/27/2025

John Helmer:

[E]scalation of force by the US has compelled Iran to negotiate terms of capitulation which it was refusing to accept before June 13. But what, according to this intelligence standard, has been motivating Israel to accept Trump’s ceasefire?

The answer to that is the most classified secret the Trump Administration, the Israeli government, and the Jewish financiers of Trump’s election campaigns are keeping. This is also a secret so sensitive that not one of the US media Trump is attacking dares to publish it.

The secret is simple: Israel was desperate to have Trump call the ceasefire in order to obtain emergency resupply of US air defence missiles. And Trump was in just as much hurry because the cost which Iran’s war has imposed on the US defence budget is more money than Trump currently has the legal authorization to spend.

According to this painstaking analysis of the available intelligence, “between the start of the war on June 13 and the announcement of a ceasefire on June 23, a race was under way. The Israelis were racing to destroy Iranian missiles and launchers before the Iranians launched enough missile salvos to deplete the Israeli interceptor magazine. Considering estimates placed Iranian ballistic missile stocks at about 2,000-3,000 before the war started, the Iranians would eventually exhaust Israeli interceptors if they weren’t attrited, making the left-of-launch or missile-defeat element of the Israeli strategy critical. If the Iranians had the missiles and launchers available to continue generating salvos against Israel, there would have come an inflection point in the amount of damage they were able to do, and that inflection point would have arrived once Israel ran out of interceptors.”

By John Helmer, Moscow Why do so many CIA and MI6 officers (retired) know and say so much about the damage Israel and the U

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