09/17/2025
FFC issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 2:10 AM EDT ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202509170610-KFFC-FXUS62-AFDFFC
410
FXUS62 KFFC 170610
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
210 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
..Morning Area Forecast Discussion...
SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Messages
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated in Georgia
through 10 PM this evening.
- Rain showers could impact the morning commute in the Atlanta
Metro.
- Dry weather and warming temperatures are expected on Thursday.
For Today:
A closed low over the Mid-Atlantic will fling multiple weak
shortwaves through Georgia today. The initial wave will track
through north Georgia this morning, leading to an increase in
convection between 4 AM and 10 AM. Instability will be very marginal
during this period (MUCAPE 200 to 500 J/kg), but this may be
sufficient for a few isolated lightning strikes. Any storm or shower
activity should be most widespread along Interstate 20. Some
rainfall is anticipated in the Atlanta Metro for the morning commute.
A second shortwave will drift south along the AL/GA border this
afternoon. This feature should be weaker than this mornings wave,
but it will align better with the peak in diurnal heating. MUCAPE
values in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range should provide enough
instability to produce isolated thunderstorms, especially between 4
PM and 10 PM. Poor mid level lapse rates and a lack of meaningful
shear suggest little to no severe threat. Thus lightning will be the
main threat with any storms.
Today's high temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees above seasonal
averages and nearly identical to what occurred on Tuesday.
Widespread highs in the upper 80s are anticipated, with a few spots
touching 90 degrees in central Georgia. Elevations above 2500 ft in
mountains will be limited to highs in the upper 70s.
On Thursday:
The low in the Mid-Atlantic will drift towards the Northeast on
Thursday. As this occurs, 500 mb heights will inch upward in Georgia
and temperatures will climb slightly. Look for afternoon highs that
are 5 to 9 degrees above seasonal averages. This will translate to
highs in the low 90s in central Georgia and upper 80s/lower 90s in
north Georgia. The rising heights will be accompanied by falling
precipitable water values, leading to conditions that will be
increasingly hostile towards rainfall. Thus no rain is expected in
the state on Thursday.
Albright
&&
LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Key Messages:
- The dry pattern continues through at least the weekend, with
only slight rain chances returning next week.
- Above normal temps with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
through Saturday, cooling to the mid 80s Sunday into next week.
Dry and warm conditions will persist through the start of the
weekend as a cut off low over the Carolina coast lifts north and
a mid-level ridge builds over the region in its wake. Between
subsidence from the ridge and decreasing PWAT values, rain
chances over Georgia will be minimal through Saturday, further
contributing to the potential for a rapid onset drought in the
region in the coming days/weeks. Temperatures will be about 5-10
degrees above normal during this time, with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday into early next week, the ridge will be kicked east as
broad mid-level troughing pushes across the Great Plains and
settle over the Midwest. This expansive trough will cover much of
the eastern U.S., with a few shortwaves wrapping around it and
pushing through the Southeast U.S., bringing periods of increased
(but still not impressive) moisture. Models have started to back
off a bit on rainfall chances, but the overall setup could still
support periodic slight rain chances (10-15% PoPs) each day next
week. Additionally, the longwave troughing will bring a slightly
cooler airmass into the region, with high temps in the low to mid
80s.
Culver
&&
AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Isolated showers and a couple of brief thunderstorms are
anticipated in north Georgia through 15Z today. Additional
isolated shower and storm activity is expected in western and
central Georgia between 18Z today and 03Z Thursday. Any impacts
from this activity at the TAF sites should be brief. Light and
variable winds will continue through 15Z today, then west
northwest (270-330 degrees) winds in the 3 to 10 kt range are
expected through 00Z Thursday.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low confidence in the occurrence of showers or a brief
thunderstorm between 10Z and 14Z today.
High confidence in the visibility and ceiling forecasts.
Moderate confidence in the wind direction forecast.
Albright
&&
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 84 61 87 63 / 20 10 0 0
Atlanta 87 65 90 65 / 20 20 0 0
Blairsville 78 56 82 58 / 10 10 0 0
Cartersville 88 61 90 61 / 20 10 0 0
Columbus 91 66 92 66 / 20 20 0 0
Gainesville 84 61 87 63 / 20 10 0 0
Macon 88 64 90 64 / 20 20 0 0
Rome 89 62 91 62 / 20 10 0 0
Peachtree City 87 62 90 62 / 20 20 0 0
Vidalia 89 65 92 66 / 10 10 0 0
&&
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Albright
September 17, 2025 at 02:10AM ffcchat IEMBot RSS Feed https://weather.im/iembot-rss/room/ffcchat.xml
