11/24/2025
Details for Monday as of 8:30pm Sunday:
Elevated storms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from parts of central TX to western AR. Marginally severe hail is possible with these storms through midday.
The main potential for severe weather (thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, or tornadoes) is expected to begin around mid-afternoon.
Key Conditions and Timing
Start Time: Mid-afternoon.
Instigator: Storms will fire up and strengthen along the outflow boundary (a surge of cool air and gusty winds) left over from earlier morning storms, as well as in zones where winds are converging (confluence bands).
Storm Structure: There is strong deep-layer shear (winds changing speed and direction with height), which is excellent for supporting supercells (powerful, long-lived, rotating thunderstorms).
The Problem: The storms will likely be organized in a somewhat "messy" way (convective mode will likely remain quite messy) because the main storm line (the progressive outflow) is moving in a direction that is nearly parallel to the wind shear. This often limits how many perfectly isolated, organized storms can form.
Primary Threats
⛈️Large Hail: The best potential for producing large hail will be with the more semi-discrete cells (storms that are somewhat isolated or on the southern end of the main storm cluster).
🌪️Tornadoes: The chance for tornadoes depends on whether any discrete convection (isolated, individual thunderstorms) can form eastward in the warm sector through the early evening. This area has large low-level hodograph curvature (a measure of low-level wind shear) which strongly favors tornado formation if isolated storms develop.
🌃Late Night Threat: A threat for tornadoes and damaging winds will continue into the late evening and overnight because there will still be a lot of rich low-level moisture (fuel for storms) available, especially across the Sabine Valley (eastern Texas/western Louisiana) and points eastward into Mississippi.
