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Southwest Ohio Weather Center, Cincinnati, OH (2026)

07/20/2026

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY — STAY WEATHER-AWARE!

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is in, and there are no changes for our area. Locations near and east of I-71 remain under a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms, while everyone else remains under a Level 2 out of 5 risk.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will move across the region Tuesday, with some possibly becoming severe. The best chance of experiencing more than one round of strong to severe storms will be within and near the Level 3 risk area.

The attached HRRR model loop runs from 7 AM through 7 PM, with the timestamp located in the upper-left corner. Remember, this is only one model, and reality will not look exactly like what is shown. However, it provides a general idea of how the day could unfold.

The model shows most thunderstorm activity occurring from the morning through the afternoon, with a few storms potentially lingering into the late afternoon or early evening across our far southern and eastern areas.

Damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe weather threat, though large hail and a tornado or two will also be possible. Any stronger storms may also produce frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and localized flash flooding.

As always with severe weather, not everyone will experience the worst conditions. Some locations may miss the strongest storms entirely, while others could be affected by more than one round. As previously stated, while everyone has a risk of severe weather, locations within the Level 3 risk area have both the greatest chance of experiencing severe storms and a higher chance of seeing more than one round.

Pinning down exact timing remains difficult because of the complexity of this setup. However, the most likely window for severe storms appears to be from Tuesday morning through mid-afternoon, potentially continuing into early evening across the far southern and eastern portions of our coverage area.

Stay weather-aware Tuesday and be prepared for conditions to change quickly. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and know where you will go if severe weather threatens your location.

Trevor Cole
Monday, 7/20/26 | 4:29 PM

07/20/2026

Air Quality Alert has been issued for Wayne, Fayette, Union, Franklin

The Indiana Department of Environmental Management has declared an Air Action Day, through midnight EDT tonight. Due to observed and forecasted high concentrations of PM2.5 values in the area, recommendations are for the public to avoid or limit outdoor exposure to wildfire smoke, reduce or avoid exertion or heavy work outdoors and keep windows and doors closed as much as possible. Fine particulate levels are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. For additional actions and information, please visit the IDEM Smog page at: https://www.in.gov/idem/airmonitoring/smogwatch/

07/20/2026

Air Quality Alert has been issued for Darke, Shelby, Miami, Clark, Preble, Montgomery, Greene

The Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission and the Regional Air Pollution Control Agency have issued an Air Quality Alert for Clark, Darke, Greene, Miami, Montgomery, Preble, and Shelby counties in the Miami Valley Region, through midnight EDT tonight. Fine particulate levels are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. For additional actions and information, visit miamivalleyair.org or call 937-223-6323

07/20/2026

TUESDAY’S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SIGNIFICANT—BUT THERE IS AN OFF-RAMP WE COULD TAKE. HERE’S THE FULL BREAKDOWN!

Let’s break down the latest details regarding Tuesday’s severe weather threat, which is currently considered significant by the Storm Prediction Center. Some of this has already been discussed, but it is important enough to go over again.

The SPC has most of the Cincinnati Tri-State under a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe weather. That is a significant risk for our region and something we typically only see a few times per year.

All severe weather hazards are possible, including:

⚠️ Damaging to potentially hurricane-force wind gusts
⚠️ Large hail
⚠️ Tornadoes

A powerful area of low pressure is forecast to track across southern Canada, dragging a strong cold front through our region.

Ahead of that front, deep moisture will combine with warm to hot surface temperatures and colder air aloft. That combination could create extreme instability, also known as CAPE—or, in weather-geek terms, a potentially enormous amount of storm fuel.

Unlike several of our recent severe weather setups, wind shear does not appear to be lacking this time. Shear levels may be unusually strong for this time of year and more than sufficient to support the development and maintenance of organized, intense thunderstorms.

The biggest question revolves around what happens Monday night into Tuesday morning.

There are essentially two scenarios within the forecast models:

SCENARIO 1: A strong MCS—Mesoscale Convective System—develops across the Midwest late Monday and moves into our area Tuesday morning with widespread rain and thunderstorms.

Should that happen, the atmosphere could take quite a beating. Morning storms would disrupt and stabilize the environment, potentially reducing—possibly significantly—the severe weather threat later Tuesday.

SCENARIO 2: The MCS misses our area, weakens before arriving, or never fully develops. That would leave us with little to no rain Tuesday morning.

This is the scenario we do NOT want to see.

A mostly dry morning would allow strong destabilization to occur, creating an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Under that scenario, significant and intense severe storms would become possible.

As you can see, what happens Monday night and Tuesday morning will have a HUGE influence on how serious the threat becomes later Tuesday.

The ceiling for this event is HIGH, and the severe weather threat should be taken seriously. However, there is also an off-ramp. Morning thunderstorms could reduce the later threat substantially.

Let’s hope we take that off-ramp—because without it, things could become very ugly around here.

We will continue poring over the latest data Monday as we work to resolve the remaining uncertainties. Hopefully, we will have a much clearer picture by late Monday, but sometimes the details do not fully come into focus until the morning of the event. Also expect changes and adjustments to the SPC’s severe weather risk map as new data becomes available and we get closer to Tuesday.

That is simply the reality of severe weather forecasting, so your patience is appreciated.

Stay weather-aware and make sure your severe weather safety plan is ready.

Trevor Cole
Sunday, 7/19/26 | 11:16 PM

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07/19/2026

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY, AND IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT!

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Level 3 out of 5 risk to include more of our coverage area.

Having said that, there is still uncertainty regarding exactly how Tuesday unfolds. Some model guidance brings a round of storms through during the morning or midday. Should that happen, it could hinder afternoon storm development, especially if the morning storms are heavy and widespread. That's something to watch, and this could be an off-ramp. If there is a morning round and it is quick moving and/or not strong, the atmosphere will likely have no issue recovering. It is summertime -- that helps with rapid atmospheric destabilization.

Other guidance keeps us mostly dry through the morning, allowing heat, humidity, and instability to build before severe storms arrive later in the day. That scenario could support a more significant severe weather event.

The overall environment looks very favorable for severe storms, especially if morning thunderstorms are limited.

All hazards are possible including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Additionally, frequent lightning and torrential downpours are possible.

Tuesday has a high ceiling. That does not guarantee a major event, but the potential is absolutely there. We will have a better idea of how things will play out after reviewing data tomorrow.

Take this threat seriously, remain weather-aware, and review your severe weather safety plans now—not when warnings are already being issued.

Trevor Cole
Sunday, 7/19/26 | 4:50 PM

07/19/2026

Air Quality Alert has been issued for Wayne, Fayette, Union, Franklin

The Indiana Department of Environmental Management has declared an Air Action Day, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night. Due to observed and forecasted high concentrations of PM2.5 values in the area, recommendations are for the public to avoid or limit outdoor exposure to wildfire smoke, reduce or avoid exertion or heavy work outdoors and keep windows and doors closed as much as possible. Fine particulate levels are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. For additional actions and information, please visit the IDEM Smog page at: https://www.in.gov/idem/airmonitoring/smogwatch/

07/19/2026

Air Quality Alert has been issued for Darke, Shelby, Miami, Clark, Preble, Montgomery, Greene

The Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission and the Regional Air Pollution Control Agency have issued an Air Quality Alert for Clark, Darke, Greene, Miami, Montgomery, Preble, and Shelby counties in the Miami Valley Region, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night. Fine particulate levels are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. For additional actions and information, visit miamivalleyair.org or call 937-223-6323

07/19/2026

Air Quality Alert has been issued for Darke, Shelby, Miami, Preble, Montgomery, Greene

The Miami Valley Regional Planning Commission and the Regional Air Pollution Control Agency have issued an Air Quality Alert for Clark, Darke, Greene, Miami, Montgomery, Preble, and Shelby counties in the Miami Valley Region, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night. Fine particulate levels are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. For additional actions and information, visit miamivalleyair.org or call 937-223-6323

07/19/2026

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY!

This should come as no surprise—we’ve been discussing this threat for several days, and confidence continues to increase.

The SPC has upgraded much of the area along and east of I-71 to a Level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday. Outside of that, the rest of the area is under a 2/5. Adjustments to the risk areas are expected, and I want you to understand that severe is possible across the entire area regardless of risk level. All severe hazards will be possible:

⚠️ Damaging winds
⚠️ Large hail
⚠️ Tornadoes

A significant severe weather event is possible, so Tuesday needs to be taken seriously. This does not guarantee that every community will experience severe weather, but the potential is there for intense, organized storms across the region.

I published a detailed breakdown earlier this morning, so be sure to check it out if you missed it. Additional updates will be posted as new information becomes available.

Stay weather-aware and begin reviewing your severe weather safety plan now!

Trevor Cole
Sunday, 7/20/26 | 6:58 AM

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