North Georgia Weather Center

North Georgia Weather Center In the N. GA Wx Center we bring you all things weather up to the second. Like our page to get updates and to send in your rain, severe weather and winter weather reports.

I am only 15 and do want to remind everyone that we are not an official weather source and we can not carry every warning, watch, and advisory. While we do post warnings, we are not an official page for life threatening information.

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04/20/2020
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Threat not as high here in north Georgia, but areas south of Interstate 20 will be under the gun again tomorrow.Check ba...
04/18/2020

Threat not as high here in north Georgia, but areas south of Interstate 20 will be under the gun again tomorrow.

Check back for updates about another potential threat this upcoming week (Wednesday/Thursday).

Severe weather will be possible in parts of Georgia tomorrow. The main threat, however, will be south of Interstate 20. Expect a wave of rain through the early afternoon hours and then storms overnight.

The overnight storms are the ones that could be strong/severe. #GAwx

⚠️ NOW is the time to prepare for SIGNIFICANT severe weather impacts tonight across northern Georgia. Follow along tonig...
04/12/2020

⚠️ NOW is the time to prepare for SIGNIFICANT severe weather impacts tonight across northern Georgia. Follow along tonight on social media.

Facebook: Like Alex Forbes
Twitter: Follow @AForbesWX
Instagram: Follow @AForbesWX

Previous event (out of date)
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⚠️⚡️ A SIGNIFICANT severe weather outbreak is likely across the southeast today and tonight, including northern Georgia and metro Atlanta. The Storm Prediction Center recently upgraded areas primarily west of I-75 to a Level 4 (out of 5) "Moderate" Risk, with the remainder of north Georgia in a Level 3 risk.

🌪 Despite the difference in levels, strong, violent, long-track tornadoes will be possible across the entire northern portion of our state.

💨 Damaging winds are also a huge concern because they can be more widespread and cause just as much damage as a tornado in some instances.

Large hail and flooding are also possible. Tonight is a night you want to be sure to have MULTIPLE WAYS to receive warnings that will wake you up should a warning be issued for your location. The most reliable way is to make sure you have a weather radio (with batteries) turned on and programmed for your county. As a backup, you can use the emergency alerts on your phone. Just make sure "Do Not Disturb" is TURNED OFF overnight tonight.

This is not meant to scare you, but to prepare you. If you are in a mobile home, you should consider leaving and going to a sturdy structure (family member's or friend's home) for the overnight hours. I understand the COVID-19 concerns, but tonight your life is more in danger from the threat of tornadoes than the threat from the Coronavirus.

Have questions? Ask below!

Alex Forbes
09/09/2017

Alex Forbes

In the words of legendary Hurricane Andrew meteorologist, Bryan Norcross, "All of West Florida is in peril." Yes, Hurricane Irma weakened as a result of land interaction with Cuba, however, it is now solidly over extremely warm water. Not good news.

The latest advisory has winds of 125 miles per hour near the center of the storm, the pressure is at 933 mbs and falling (strengthing), and movement is to the WNW, towards the Florida Keys, at 9 mph.

Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for the entire peninsula of Florida. It is believed to be the first time we have had warnings structured like this. In terms of the coast line, they are in effect for Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass and the Florida Keys.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach, South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf coast from West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line and the Atlantic coast from North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River.

We do have update storm surge numbers with the 5 PM Advisory. If you are anywhere on the coast line and are under evacuation orders, it means this storm surge will affect you. Emergency managers evacuate for water, not wind.

Cape Sable to Captiva: 10 to 15 ft
Captiva to Ana Maria Island: 6 to 10 ft
Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys: 5 to 10 ft
Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay: 5 to 8 ft
North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay: 4 to 6 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach: 4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River: 4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach: 2 to 4 ft

We consider major storm surge as any water above normal dry land over 5 feet. That is possible for several hundred miles of the coast, there for making this a catastrophic event.

It is important to remember that hurricane force winds extend for up to 70 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend upwards of 185 miles. The strongest of the winds are found near the center of the storm, so where the eye goes matters. We maybe looking at the worst-case scenario here which is the eye of Irma remains just off the coast of southwest Florida for a prolonged period of time. This means we could be looking at category 3-4-5 damage from the Keys, up the west coast of Florida, all of the way to Tampa.

Of course, one little shift changes everything, so the center of the storm will very much be a nowcasting event for West Florida.

Rainfall will be in large quantities once Irma moves into Georgia, Alabama, and the Carolinas. Tornadoes will be an issue, especially to the east of the center of circulation. Areas in metro Atlanta, Athens, Gainesville, Augusta, Statesboro, Savannah, and Coastal Georgia may see a tornado threat for 12-18 hours. Tropical storm force, maybe weak hurricane force, winds will make their way into those same areas.

Irma is a very fluid situation. Keep checking back on this page for updates.

Alex Forbes
09/08/2017

Alex Forbes

NEW WITH THIS ADVISORY: Irma is expected to make landfall in the vicinity of Marco Island, Florida as a major hurricane. All interests in the area (SW Florida) should make preparations accordingly. There will be places that will be inhabitable for weeks, if not months. ALL of Florida will experience hurricane conditions. More info -->

The new advisory from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center is in. Winds are at 155 mph (2 mph off of category 5 strength), the pressure is at 925 mbs, and the storm has slowed down, moving West at 12 mph. The slowing is a sign that the northward turn is imminent.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Anna Maria Island and the Florida Keys. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and North of Anna Maria Island to the Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice, including the Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County line, North of Venice to Anclote River, and Tampa Bay.

Storm surge is what kills. You can hide from the wind, but you can not run from water. If you are under an evacuation, GET OUT! This storm is not messing around when it comes to water. The following is expected storm surge totals:

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable: 8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Key: 5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva: 5 to 8 ft
Anclote River to Venice including Tampa Bay: 3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line: 3 to 6 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

NEW WITH THIS ADVISORY: Irma is expected to make landfall near Marco Island, Florida as a category 5 hurricane. All interests in the area (SW Florida) should make preparations accordingly. There will be places that will be inhabitable for weeks if not months.

There should be NOBODY on the Keys beginning TONIGHT. South Florida's preparations need to be rushed to completion tonight and finished by 8 AM tomorrow. There is a graphic attached to this post of preparation completion times. Plan accordingly.

All evacuees need to be out of town at least 6 hours before the prep end time hits. Go to shelters if you are prone to storm surge.

The following places are under evacuation orders:
South Bay
Lake Harbor
Pahokee
Moore Haven
Clewiston
Belle Glade
Canal Point
Brevard County– mandatory evacuations for Zone A, Merritt Island, barrier islands, and some low-lying mainland areas along Indian River Lagoon beginning Friday
Broward County– voluntary evacuations mobile homes and low-lying areas; mandatory East of Federal Highway including barrier islands beginning Thursday
Collier County– mandatory evacuations for Goodland, Everglades City, Chokoloskee, all mobile homes beginning on Friday
Flagler County– mandatory evacuations for nursing homes, all varieties of assisted living facilities, and community residential group homes within coastal and Intracoastal areas and voluntary for zones A, B, C, F beginning on Thursday; mandatory for Zones A,B,C,F, and substandard housing beginning on Saturday
Hendry County– voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, non-slab-built homes, mobile home and RVs beginning on Thursday
Lee County– mandatory evacuations for barrier islands – Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva, and Pine Island beginning on Friday AM
Manatee – voluntary evacuations for Zone A
Martin County– voluntary evacuations for mandatory for barrier islands, manufactured homes, and low-lying areas beginning Saturday
Miami-Dade County– mandatory evacuations for all of Zone A, all of Zone B, and portions of Zone C. Miami Dade residents can find their zones by clicking HERE.
Monroe County– mandatory evacuations for visitors and residents. A dedicated transportation hotline is available specifically for individuals in the Keys at 305-517-2480
Palm Beach County– mandatory evacuations for Zone A and B, voluntary for Zone C and Lake Zone E
Pinellas County– mandatory evacuations all mobile home and Zone A
St. Lucie County– voluntary evacuations
Glades County– mandatory evacuations around Lake Okeechobee
Hardee County– voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas, mobile homes, and port structures
Indian River County– voluntary evacuations for barrier islands, low-lying areas
Lee County– mandatory evacuations for barrier islands – Bonita Beach, Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel, Captiva, and Pine Island beginning on Friday AM
Tampa is telling everyone in Evacuation Zone A to get out. A mandatory evacuation of the city’s lowest-lying homes will go into effect at 2 p.m.

I will be updating my page (Meteorologist Alex Forbes) throughout the duration of the event. Stay safe.

Alex Forbes
09/08/2017

Alex Forbes

New update posted on my page. The following is now outdated information.
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11 AM update on #Irma has the winds at 150 mph and a pressure of 927 millibars and rising. Motion has also slowed slightly, now at 14 mph instead of 16 mph. As I noted in an earlier post, the current wind speed means that Irma has weakened into a category 4 hurricane, HOWEVER, the impacts will still be the same in South Florida. This slight weakening was due to an eyewall replacement cycle that is nearly complete.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet southward on the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach and the Florida Keys. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for North of Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice and the Florida Keys. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for North of Sebastian Inlet to Ponce Inlet.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable - 6 to 12 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Cape Sable including the Florida Keys- 5 to 10 ft
Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet- 3 to 6 ft
Venice to Captiva- 3 to 6 ft

Storm surge will also be an issue in Coastal Georgia and Coastal South Carolina. Forecasts to come.

WIND: Major hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or early Sunday.

RAINFALL: Still looking at the potential for up to a foot of rain in parts of Florida. It is important to not that Irma is not Harvey. The storm will continue to move after landfall and not sit over Florida like Harvey did, and dump trillions and trillions of gallons of rain.

After landfall in the Keys, Irma is expected to move up the Florida peninsula and into the Atlanta area. Atlanta's impacts are going to be much greater than previously expected. There will the possibility of Tropical Storm force winds for a prolonged period of time. Tornadoes will also become a risk, mainly in the right-front quadrant of the storm, Q1 on a x/y plane.

Catastrophic impact still expected across much of southern Florida as Irma makes landfall as a category 4, maybe a category 5, hurricane. There may be places that are inhabitable for weeks, if not months.

One new graphic that I am posting is the experimental reasonable arrival of tropical storm force winds in a location. The line across the polygon is indicative of when preparations should be complete and when people should be where they are going to be to ride out the storm if they decided to stay.

Finally, evacuation orders are issued in an attempt to save your life. So, follow them. Emergency managers who issue them know what they are talking about. They are the expert in this, not you. Please just listen and do as they say.

More updates to follow...

Alex Forbes
09/08/2017

Alex Forbes

New update posted on my page. The following is now outdated information.

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READ ENTIRE POST: I cannot stress enough how much of a threat Irma is to Florida. This storm is going to be written about in history books like Katrina and Andrew have been. Irma poses a MAJOR threat to the ENTIRE state of Florida. If I had to put an analogy to it, this is just a historic slow-motion train wreck.

As of 8 PM, the Hurricane Hunters found Irma with a falling pressure of 919 mbs, winds of 175 miles per hour, and the storm moving WNW at 16 mph. With those statistics, Irma has now been a category 5 hurricane for 56 hours, which is just indescribable.

The rest of this post is US centric. I understand the threat exists elsewhere, however, a majority, if not all, of my audience is within the US.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Broward County, Collier County, Miami-Dade County, Palm Beach County, and Monroe County, Florida. It will be expanded further north either later tonight or tomorrow. The only reason it is only in these locations now, is because a watch can only be issued 48 hours before initial tropical storm force winds are felt. Eventually, it is plausible that the watch will be extended all the way to North Carolina and Georgia. Warnings will come tomorrow for South Florida.

The forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center did shift slightly to the west today. The EMCWF(European) model and the GFS (American) model both showed the same shift, implicating Florida's Gulf Coast and Florida's Atlantic Coast. This brought the center of the storm almost directly over Miami as a category 4 hurricane overnight Saturday, into Sunday.

The following times and locations are when preparations need to be completed for the areas:

Saturday 8 AM: Ft. Myers to Metro Miami and South (including Keys)
Saturday 8 PM: Tampa to Orlando to Cocoa Beach and South
Sunday 8 AM: Jacksonville to Florida's Big Bend and South
Sunday 8 PM: The remainder of Florida
Monday 8 AM: Georgia and South Carolina

Tropical storm force winds will be arriving around those times, so preparations need to be completed as it will be difficult to do so after that time.

In regards to the track, I would say only take away that this storm is going to impact Florida in a catastrophic way. It is still possible that this storm makes landfall as a category 5 hurricane in the major metropolis that is Miami. It is also still possible that this storm rides up the eastern seaboard and makes a direct hit in areas such as Savannah and Charleston.
The door is open for all possibilities because a slight error in the forecast implicates millions of people either way.

In terms of evacuations, if you are in a storm surge zone, evacuate. Do not wait for emergency management to tell you to do so, just do it. You can hide from wind, but you can not hide from water. 5-10 feet is already forecasted on the Atlantic coast from Jupiter Inlet, south to the Keys, then up the Gulf Coast to Bonita Springs. And for God's sake, DO NOT LISTEN TO THE NAPLES MAYOR. If you are in a storm surge zone, GET OUT.

Evacuations are in effect for the following areas:

Florida Keys: mandatory for visitors and residents
Miami-Dade Co.: mandatory for zones A&B, parts of zone C, barrier islands, and mobile homes
Broward Co.: mandatory for mobile homes, barrier islands, & areas east of Federal Highway (US 1)
Palm Beach Co.: mandatory 10am Friday for zones A&B, including mobile homes and barrier islands
Collier Co. mandatory for Goodland, Everglades City, Chokoloskee, and mobile homes
Lee Co. mandatory Friday for barrier islands and mobile homes
Pinellas Co.: mandatory Friday 6am for Zone A, including mobile homes
St. Johns Co.: mandatory 6am Saturday for zones A&B, St. Augustine, Hastings, and mobile homes
Georgia coastal areas: mandatory for all areas east of I-95 on Saturday

When evacuating, do not forget your pets. Some shelters do accept them. Just be sure to have food for them as most do not supply pet food.

Finally, I have attached a threat map that speaks for itself. A significant chunk of Florida is going to be devastated. Get ready for it, because it is coming.

I will be releasing updates on this storm as it progresses, so like this page to receive said updates: Meteorologist Alex Forbes

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