11/21/2025
Mexicali Business Leaders Brace for Mixed Economic, Fiscal and Labor Outlook in 2026
MEXICALI, Baja California — Local business leaders gathered Thursday for a wide-ranging briefing on Mexico’s 2026 economic, labor and fiscal landscape, hearing experts warn of tightening regulations, rising employer obligations and uneven growth in the year ahead.
The breakfast forum — hosted by Coparmex Mexicali at the Araiza Inn Convention Center — opened with remarks from the group’s secretary, Luis Alfonso Treviño Folglio. He urged business owners to prepare for a more challenging national environment and to rely on timely, data-driven analysis.
“Now more than ever, these are decisive times for our city and our country,” Treviño said, emphasizing the need for informed decision-making across the private sector.
Fiscal Outlook: More Enforcement, Fewer Resources
Fiscal specialist Reginaldo Martín Esquer Félix said that while no sweeping tax reform is expected next year, federal authorities plan to increase excise taxes and expand the Tax Administration Service’s digital auditing tools amid a slowing economy.
He noted that Mexico’s government projects GDP growth of 2.8% in 2026, but outside analysts expect closer to 1% — a gap that could complicate federal revenue goals. Esquer said the peso-dollar exchange rate may end 2026 near 19 pesos per dollar, driven more by weakness in the U.S. currency than by structural strength in Mexico’s economy.
He also pointed to inconsistencies in the proposed 2026 federal budget: while the government framed a higher soda tax as a health-funding measure, spending on health, education and other key areas is set to decrease, even as social programs continue to grow.
Miguel Ángel López Robles, a partner at Deloitte Mexicali and chair of Coparmex’s Tax Commission, said the tax agency plans 16,200 audits in 2026. New criteria could lead to the suspension or cancellation of companies’ digital tax certificates for issues such as recurrent losses, excessive deductions, undeclared income, misuse of tax incentives and failures in withholding requirements.
López urged businesses to assess their vulnerabilities, strengthen accounting processes and review internal structures to avoid compliance risks.
Economic Conditions: Moderate Growth, Opportunities Through US Ties
Economic analyst Alejandra Marcos Iza said Mexico avoided a recession this year but continues to post modest growth. Still, she said the country stands to benefit from nearshoring and its deep commercial ties with the United States — which receives 88% of Mexico’s exports and supplies more than 80% of foreign goods consumed domestically.
Despite U.S. tariff policies and trade tensions, Mexico retains a favorable position under the USMCA, making it, in Marcos’s words, “the belle of the ball” in Latin America’s economic context.
She added that the peso remains one of the world’s most traded currencies, supported partly by a weak dollar. To fully capitalize on shifting global supply chains, Mexico will need stronger domestic industrial development and a broader tax base, she said. Inflation remains a pressing concern because it disproportionately affects lower-income households.
Labor Landscape: High-Impact Reforms Ahead
Labor specialists Ignacio Avilés Bustillos and Lisbia Soto Elenes outlined reforms under discussion in Mexico’s Congress, several of which would significantly raise employer costs. Proposed changes include increasing mandatory vacation premiums from 25% to 30%, doubling the annual holiday bonus from 15 to 30 days, adjusting profit-sharing rules and modifying seniority-based benefits.
The minimum wage is expected to continue its upward path, increasing roughly 11% annually with a long-term goal of equaling 2.5 basic-needs baskets by 2030.
One of the most consequential proposals is the reduction of the standard workweek from 48 to 40 hours — a campaign pledge of President Claudia Sheinbaum. The plan is expected to phase in gradually, cutting two hours per year until reaching 40 daytime hours and 30 nighttime hours. Businesses would likely need to hire more staff or increase overtime pay to adapt.
The experts also highlighted the upcoming enforcement of the “Ley Silla,” which takes effect in 2026 and will be monitored through federal labor inspections. Companies were urged to update processes, documentation and workplace conditions in advance.
A Dual Outlook for 2026
Speakers agreed that Mexico is unlikely to experience a major economic shock next year. Still, they warned of fiscal pressures, tighter regulation and deep labor reforms, combined with a federal budget that shows significant gaps between projected income and spending.